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I tend to be a bit wary of negative trends unless there is a sensible reason for them. The trouble with arguing that Kempton poses too different a test compared with Cheltenham is that a fair number of King George winners go on to win the Gold Cup, which begs the question of why Feltham winners do not do likewise. That said, I’d expect a higher proportion of King George winners than Feltham winners to follow up at the Festival, as the King George is a more prestigious target than the Feltham and would be more likely to attract the main Cheltenham contenders.
And what reason might account for that, other than a statistical fluke caused by an inadequate sample size?
Rubstic was upsides a reigning Gold Cup winner when that horse fell, so the field he was in wasn’t that bad.
I suppose someone has to point out that Nazism is just as much a product of western culture as modern-day representative democracy, and is only not the dominant strand of it today because Hitler was rather more prone to ignoring military advice than Stalin was.
Gerald, I’d wondered about this. Perhaps it would make more sense to use the standard handicap, but guarantee any horse that had placed over the course in the previous year a run?
Wasn’t Jair du Cochet’s jumping style due to the way that his trainer trained his horses to jump; something to do with the reins?? I miss Monsieur Macairre [sp] over here; did he fall out of love with British racing, or is he happy to just sell us a lot of his horses instead? I know he was devastated when Jair du Cochet died [as were we all].
I think a few of Macaire’s had a similar jumping style. It may have been accentuated visually by the prominent leg-bandages many of his chasers carried on their forelegs.
AFAIK Macaire’s training ground was next door to Royan zoo.
Offshore Account – Bang there until fading late
I have my doubts about last year’s race as a guide to this year’s. There were more horses in contention than usual after three out, a fair number of which appeared unlikely stayers (Arteea, Cerium, for example). I suspect it was run at a steadier pace than usual.
They ruled out Cerium, Mon Mome and My Will straight away because they were French bred. Realised a while ago that it’s best to have a tick list for horses rather than an instant elimination list.
The thing with trends is that there are those that are based on good reasons, which are worth investigating, and those based on coincidence or statistical anomaly. Before last year, a few French-breds had gone close but perhaps been a little bit unlucky (Clan Royal, Mely Moss, Encore un Peu…), suggesting it was only a matter of time before one won.
Considering how tired Denman finished when winning the Gold Cup, does he have a prayer of staying a truely-run 4m4f?
I’m not convinced that jumping round Auteuil in handicaps is a sign that a horse will jump round Aintree. It shows that a horse will handle three miles with the odd Grand National-style obstacle on the course. Jumping twenty or so of them is another matter altogether – a completely different jumping discipline. I don’t have the stats to hand but my impression is that most horses trying Aintree after spending most of their chasing career at Auteuil do not complete the course.
Should the new rule also prevent horses from being made to continue that have earlier refused?
Taleb is a nutter. Cameron will say anything that makes him appear responsible and the Labour Party appear inept. Buffett is probably worth listening to. The UK government lies to us a lot of the time, but I doubt has the competence to impoverish its own population deliberately. Maybe we should worry about it, and maybe we shouldn’t, I guess…
Socialism is workers’ control of the means of production, surely? Is Platini really suggesting that, say, Manchester United should be expropriated from the current set of owners and handed over to Wayne Rooney et al? That should shake the Premiership up a bit.
Black Apalachi seemed to pitch on landing at a couple early on the second circuit and to my mind looked to be finding things harder, so not altogether surprising he got rid of his jockey like he did.
The wall at Auteuil is solid, but topped with some kind of synthetic yielding stuff. It is not very big and is typically hurdled.
So Kifill,
Big Fella Thanks winning a valuable Donny H’cap and coming fourth(?) in the Racing Post Chase would count as sufficient experience?
I would not back the beast at his current price. One quality I am looking for in a National winner is a proven ability to jump competently and run to rating in races run at a strong pace in large fields. Clearly he has a fair bit of ability but he will have learned little about jumping at speed in large fields when winning a ridiculously uncompetitive race at Doncaster where a third of the intended field were non-runners. I have yet to actually watch the Kempton race, so won’t pass comment.
That said, experience per se is not necessarily going to help a horse jump round Aintree. D’Argent last year would be a case in point, not looking comfortable at many of the fences.
