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Well, I have started the Flat season with a bang – AW Finals day I got a 225-1 double up with Alben Star and Captain Joy as well as the place part of an ew treble which included Metropol who came a length and a short head 3rd (would have been near on 5,000-1 if it had hung on!! :cry:) Then weekend just gone at the Curragh I got a 235-1 ew double up with Onenightidreamed and Zhukova!
I didn’t post them on here as I only had minimal stakes on and also did some alternative bets and this is supposed to be saved for my more confident selections. (bodes well hopefully!)
I backed Mobsta at 16’s in the Cammidge on Saturday as well as 2 or 3 others in the same race and on Sat. night I looked at the Curragh card and backed a few including Zhukova and Flight Risk.
Then I got thinking about why it had paid off to get involved in the Cammidge (bear in mind I work a lot on instinct and not too many details) basically I had felt there were question marks over the market leaders and others in the race weren’t too far away on class/form and were available at much nicer prices, so I looked again at the 2 Curragh races and felt that the same situation was happening in both of those, made 2 selections in each race combined doubles and it paid off!
It is still a learning curve for me and I tend to be rather cautious these days. For the 2nd time on this thread i feel that I’ve missed an opportunity to win big (curragh not lingfield) I think it is partly the extra pressure of wanting to do well on here but also maybe the fact that I’m tending to select 2 or 3 horse in a race at the moment therefore watering down my stake to a point that it is not worth putting on the thread.
Bedtime!10 pts down so far
but should be getting a bit more action soon!I’m already on at 33’s this one but I’ll put it on this thread at …. 0.5 pt ew MARCEL in 2000 Guineas @ 25-1 various firms.
I’ll probably have some more on nearer the time if confirmed.1 pt win double for me tomorrow
1.30 Footpad @ 10-1
2.50 Long Dog @ 8-1B365
At the prices this morning I’m having a go at these…
0.25 pt ew trixie
Tombstone @ 14-1
Sempre Medici @ 25-1
Bitofapuzzle @ 16-1Betvictor
and a 1pt win double, same races Move in Time @ 6-1 with Tullius @ 8-1 (Hills)
Flemenstar let us down big time Raymo!

Hoping for better with these, though quite a few unknown factors and quality opposition in both races….
1.45 Lingfield – Gamgoom @ 8-1
3.20 Lingfield – Maverick Wave @ 12-10.5 pt ew double B365 (quarter 123)
1 pt win double
1.50 Ascot – Le Mercurey @ 14-1
3.35 Ascot – Flemenstar @ 7-1 BFredWell done N, race played out exactly as you predicted

Fun small stake ew double, hoping reapplied headgear has effect on both of these 3.35- Glory Awaits @ 16’s with 5.20- Green Door @ 25’s BV
Opened account with Betway to take the 20’s on Tellina last night and put it on DLAP
Good luck N!4.45 Meydan – Tellina 1pt win @ 20-1 betway
Tellina looks a big price to me at 20-1 (lads) in the 4.45, just missed it with PP, hoping one of the others go the same when all are up….
February 16, 2016 at 20:31 in reply to: Using market (shortening) to pinpoint value on out of form horses/trainers #1233924As you and GT have said, all down to what suits the individual at the end of the day. For a few years I tried to bet by going for a horse which I thought was nailed on but I couldn’t make it pay doing it that way myself.
February 16, 2016 at 20:14 in reply to: Using market (shortening) to pinpoint value on out of form horses/trainers #1233922Do you have a standard stake N? If you do change it, do you do so because you think it is a better value bet?
February 16, 2016 at 19:51 in reply to: Using market (shortening) to pinpoint value on out of form horses/trainers #1233919Me too, I’ll be back…..
February 16, 2016 at 19:47 in reply to: Using market (shortening) to pinpoint value on out of form horses/trainers #1233916Sorry just realised that you haven’t!
February 16, 2016 at 19:44 in reply to: Using market (shortening) to pinpoint value on out of form horses/trainers #1233915You’ve answered it yourself N – (when you gave the boxing example earlier on this thread)
February 16, 2016 at 19:09 in reply to: Using market (shortening) to pinpoint value on out of form horses/trainers #1233910Makes sense to me too!
Every horse in any race has some chance of winning, however small it may be, some of my best and most memorable bets have been losing bets!
All about personal strike rate against price taken at the end of the day.- AuthorPosts