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With Dodging Bullets coming back from injury and question marks about Captain Conan after a disappointing on reappearance… Dodging Bullets friendless in the market around 4/6 out to 6/5 and Top Gamble around 7/2 (11/2 with L’Ami Surge still there) in to 11/10… Betting told a story of who’s fit and ready.
Similar story in the Denman; last night I tried to make a tissue and gave up. Every horse question marks (plural) against their name. ballynagor the best form but running appallingly of late, does he need better ground? Rocky Creek disappointed, pulled up over Aintree fences last time, inconsistent and only wins if able to do so on the bridle. Houblon Des Obeaux hasn’t jumped with the same fluency as last season, is the ability still there? The Giant Bolster hasn’t shown much this term either and isn’t getting any younger. The others didn’t look good enough if any of the above showed their form.
Houblon Des Obeaux well backed in to 3/1 second favourite suggested he’s showing encouragement at home. Return to form good enough to see him win an uncompetitive race easily. The Giant Bolster nibbled at at big prices found the runner-up spot.
Looking at the race again, do think it might have been possible to use market confidence to bet on horses technically “out of form. ie The horse might have shortened up, but (although not certain to run to form) the liklihood of the horse returning to form has improved quite a bit with that market move. Therefore the NEW (shorter) price may well be value.
ie
If a horse is out of form I may want 7/1 in the Early market.
If the/those poor runs did not exist – if coming in to the race in form – I may want less than half that @ 3/1.
So if the horse is 6/1 in the Early Market it would not be “Value” (compared to the 7/1).
But if it then shortens up to 9/2 then market support would suggest it’s probably showing something like its old sparkle at home. Therefore, 9/2 being quite a bit better than 3/1 may well be worth at least a saver.Weakness in the market about one out of form and/or returning after injury, plus others in the race shortening can also tell a story like it did today with Dodging Bullets and Top Gamble. Luckily enough I predicted it and was on TG. Didn’t back Houblon Des though and could’ve done. Also backed Count Guido Giero. The only front runner in the race, very likely to get an easy lead where as a few of the favs were hold up horses. Ran poorly last time out, pulled up last time out when he did not lead, top rated by Timeform but with the comment “possibly amiss”. Also had a hard race the time before and so may not have been in A1 condition last time. Was a little worried about the amateur claiming rider and whether Count Guido was being prepped for a future race. Looked at the betting last night, 14/1 freely available. I decided to wait until the morning. Being nibbled at in to 12/1 and the 12/1 seemed to be disappearing – so a small market move in his favour – got on.
Market moves for a horse from a stable who’s otherwise out of form can also tell a tale, that it could well go against the recent runners trend.
There was a time when I was obsessive about getting the very best price a horse had ever been, but now I find a horse shortening can help identify the value/good bets. I also seldom back a horse who’s lengthened out to (according to my Early market tissue) a “value” price, particularly if the horse (or trainer) is out of form.
Do any other TRFers (that look for “value”) use the market in this way? Or do you use rigid tissue prices, backing horses bigger than your “price to beat” whenever they come, both Early price and later on if lengthening out to (according to your tissue) a value price?
Value Is EverythingIt’s what a very high percentage of people up and down the country sat in the bookies do day in day out and have been since the days the bookie priced up the market on the chalk boards and I wasn’t even born to see it.
It’s called ‘following the money’ followed by a mad dash to the counter, brilliant in a shop when you get 5 blokes dashing with under half a minute to off time.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
It’s what a very high percentage of people up and down the country sat in the bookies do day in day out and have been since the days the bookie priced up the market on the chalk boards and I wasn’t even born to see it.
It’s called ‘following the money’ followed by a mad dash to the counter, brilliant in a shop when you get 5 blokes dashing with under half a minute to off time.Not exactly Nathan. It’s not about backing something whatever the price, there’s still a price you would not take. It’s about using the market under particular circumstances in conjunction with the form book, not instead of the form book.
If just “following the money” without taking any notice of price you’d lose big time.
Value Is Everythingwould people have took 6/5 about kerry lee’s horse yesterday/(obviously some did),They way it won in hindsight people would say it was a good price.
I think sometimes people (not OP) make this game to hard.I like to keep it simple,(anything else my brain would explode),make your selection/s if you are happy with the price back it,if not watch the race for future reference.
i am not one of these i would back it at 6/1 but if it was 4s i would lay it,i really dont get that method,but i suppose its a different market out there these daysWatching Sam T-D’s pre-race interview on Channel 4 told you all you needed to know! “it wouldn’t be the end of the world if he got beat today, he’ll be firing on all cylinders come March”
would people have took 6/5 about kerry lee’s horse yesterday/(obviously some did),They way it won in hindsight people would say it was a good price.
I think sometimes people (not OP) make this game to hard.I like to keep it simple,(anything else my brain would explode),make your selection/s if you are happy with the price back it,if not watch the race for future reference.
i am not one of these i would back it at 6/1 but if it was 4s i would lay it,i really dont get that method,but i suppose its a different market out there these days“Value” should never be judged after the race, it’s pointless. Point is it can be judged beforehand using form and the market.
I certainly would not call Top Gamble’s 6/5 “value” nwalton; but it was possible to use the horse shortening as a sign the horse WAS value a long time before it eventually got to 6/5; taking a lot better than 6/5. When the then odds-on fav is coming back from injury and perhaps being rushed to get fit for Cheltenham… Plus the other one with any chance on form – Captain Conan – been injured since that “form” and running poorly on reappearance… What had been happening at Ditcheat and Seven Barrows gallops were always going to be seen in the market (either way).
Value Is Everythingmy point GT ‘value’ is an over used word now in betting by some.IMO first work out who you think will win(the event/race) work on your own tissue and decide wether you want to back or not at given prices on offer.
How may times have we heard,i think the fav will win,but X is the value at 8s,now maybe i am an old and been in the game to long,how the hell is it value when you dont think it will win?
To me the only way i would be swayed to have a ‘value’ bet would be on the boxing,if i priced it up 5/6 each of two(and icant split them) then the first book priced up 2s one of the fighters i would have a small bet on that fighter(as i still cant split them)
By the way i was not judging value after the event,i was merely pointing out people who backed the winner at 6/5 clearly thought that was a decent price the way it won
when you pointed out TG was value at that price,you’re first point of call was surely you thought it would win?
Like i say we all work in differing ways and its great that we can discuss these ways on a forum,even at my age its great to see these views
With Dodging Bullets coming back from injury and question marks about Captain Conan after a disappointing on reappearance… Dodging Bullets friendless in the market around 4/6 out to 6/5 and Top Gamble around 7/2 (11/2 with L’Ami Surge still there) in to 11/10… Betting told a story of who’s fit and ready.
Similar story in the Denman; last night I tried to make a tissue and gave up. Every horse question marks (plural) against their name. ballynagor the best form but running appallingly of late, does he need better ground? Rocky Creek disappointed, pulled up over Aintree fences last time, inconsistent and only wins if able to do so on the bridle. Houblon Des Obeaux hasn’t jumped with the same fluency as last season, is the ability still there? The Giant Bolster hasn’t shown much this term either and isn’t getting any younger. The others didn’t look good enough if any of the above showed their form.
Houblon Des Obeaux well backed in to 3/1 second favourite suggested he’s showing encouragement at home. Return to form good enough to see him win an uncompetitive race easily. The Giant Bolster nibbled at at big prices found the runner-up spot.
Looking at the race again, do think it might have been possible to use market confidence to bet on horses technically “out of form. ie The horse might have shortened up, but (although not certain to run to form) the liklihood of the horse returning to form has improved quite a bit with that market move. Therefore the NEW (shorter) price may well be value.
ie
If a horse is out of form I may want 7/1 in the Early market.
If the/those poor runs did not exist – if coming in to the race in form – I may want less than half that @ 3/1.
So if the horse is 6/1 in the Early Market it would not be “Value” (compared to the 7/1).
But if it then shortens up to 9/2 then market support would suggest it’s probably showing something like its old sparkle at home. Therefore, 9/2 being quite a bit better than 3/1 may well be worth at least a saver.Weakness in the market about one out of form and/or returning after injury, plus others in the race shortening can also tell a story like it did today with Dodging Bullets and Top Gamble. Luckily enough I predicted it and was on TG. Didn’t back Houblon Des though and could’ve done. Also backed Count Guido Giero. The only front runner in the race, very likely to get an easy lead where as a few of the favs were hold up horses. Ran poorly last time out, pulled up last time out when he did not lead, top rated by Timeform but with the comment “possibly amiss”. Also had a hard race the time before and so may not have been in A1 condition last time. Was a little worried about the amateur claiming rider and whether Count Guido was being prepped for a future race. Looked at the betting last night, 14/1 freely available. I decided to wait until the morning. Being nibbled at in to 12/1 and the 12/1 seemed to be disappearing – so a small market move in his favour – got on.
Market moves for a horse from a stable who’s otherwise out of form can also tell a tale, that it could well go against the recent runners trend.
There was a time when I was obsessive about getting the very best price a horse had ever been, but now I find a horse shortening can help identify the value/good bets. I also seldom back a horse who’s lengthened out to (according to my Early market tissue) a “value” price, particularly if the horse (or trainer) is out of form.
Do any other TRFers (that look for “value”) use the market in this way? Or do you use rigid tissue prices, backing horses bigger than your “price to beat” whenever they come, both Early price and later on if lengthening out to (according to your tissue) a value price?
I would have thought it is quite easy to put the pieces in the jigsaw after the event (eg above) but rather more difficult to do it prior to the race.
Which races would you concentrate on and how long before each race would you make your final analysis of the betting etc. Would you use bookmakers prices or exchanges? How would you decide which horses are out of form? eg Was Dodging Bulletts out of form just because he had not run for some time because of injury?
Houblon may well have been well backed close to race but some bookmakers had him at 3/1 in the morning so maybe that was his correct price anyway, at least prior to the race.
You would also be banking on the opening prices being correct and accurate, they are often not.
I’m far from convinced the above would be either practical or profitable.
when you pointed out TG was value at that price,you’re first point of call was surely you thought it would win?
Like i say we all work in differing ways and its great that we can discuss these ways on a forum,even at my age its great to see these views
3:00 Newbury
36 points each way @ 6/1 (B365) L’Ami Surge* (min 5/1)The possible profit on the L’Ami Surge bet if it’s placed is £18 so…
18 points (win) @ 4/1 (B365) Top Gamble* (min 4/1)
You’ll probably get at least 9/2 if not 5/1 in the morning, but I won’t have much time to put the bet up.
If Lami Surge is a non-runner then suggest a bet of 55 points at 11/4 or 60 @ 3/1 Top Gamble.3:00 Newbury
36 points each way @ 6/1 (B365) L’Ami Surge* (min 5/1)LS now non-runner
61 points @ 5/2 (B365) Top Gamble* (min 9/4)Certainly did not believe TG “would win” and not the best chance of winning nwalton, at least not to begin with.
When first working out the form (without L’Ami Surge in it) I rated Top Gamble around a 31% (fair 9/4 shot) with Dodging Bullets around 45% (fair 6/5) – a far better chance than Top Gamble, but appalling value at a top price of around 8/11. Thinking about it more… by Morning I’d altered my opinion further, making Top Gamble a 33% fair 2/1. (But I did not work out a 100% book, had I done so Top Gamble would probably have been at least 40% 6/4). Then, with all the money coming for TG and lack of market confidence for DB – knowing both DG and Captain Conan were coming back from injury and their chance being illustrated somewhat by that market – only by off time did I believe TG the “best chance of winning”.Value Is EverythingBy the way i was not judging value after the event,i was merely pointing out people who backed the winner at 6/5 clearly thought that was a decent price the way it won
I realised that was your point about the 6/5 nwalton.
Value Is EverythingHow may times have we heard, I think the fav will win, but X is the value at 8s, now maybe i am an old and been in the game to long, how the hell is it value when you dont think it will win?
Makes perfect sense to me.
A punter may believe a horse is the probable winner of a race (better than 50%) but is only available @ 4/6. If not believing that horse better than 60% punters should look elsewhere, because it is in his/her opinion a poor bet @ 4/6 despite being the “probable winner”. If there’s another horse in the same race a punter believes has a 20% (just 1 in 5) fair 4/1 chance – if available at 8/1 why is it not excellent value to win?In that situation I could easily say “I think the fav will win, but X is the value at 8s”.
Value Is EverythingMakes sense to me too!
Every horse in any race has some chance of winning, however small it may be, some of my best and most memorable bets have been losing bets!
All about personal strike rate against price taken at the end of the day.why look elsewhere? You think horse A will win,but you dont like the price,surely that becomes a no bet race.
as said we all have differing ideas,but if i cant get the price(i want) for my selection i would not go looking for another bet in the race.You’ve answered it yourself N – (when you gave the boxing example earlier on this thread)
KB
that is an example of if a cannot split two boxers and if the books were way out of line(imo).Also where i normally back to £100 per point( as stated on a thread on lays/plays),i certainly wouldn’t apply my normal way of betting in this said scenario,it would be a token bet,as i could not split them
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