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Using market (shortening) to pinpoint value on out of form horses/trainers

Home Forums Archive Topics Trends, Research And Notebooks Using market (shortening) to pinpoint value on out of form horses/trainers

Viewing 16 posts - 18 through 33 (of 33 total)
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  • #1233918
    nwalton
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    • Total Posts 3599

    sorry KB didn’t see your answer.This one finger typing takes to long.lol

    #1233919
    Karinga Bay
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    • Total Posts 88

    Me too, I’ll be back….. :-)

    #1233920
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 34704

    why look elsewhere? You think horse A will win,but you dont like the price,surely that becomes a no bet race.
    as said we all have differing ideas,but if i cant get the price(i want) for my selection i would not go looking for another bet in the race.

    Nothing wrong with only backing the horse you think has the best chance of winning when believing it value and not betting when believing it not value. But you’re cutting down enormously on the number of bets. If I’ve spent a lot of time working out a race I’d want to use that time to find a bet.

    Surely a punter needs to accurately assess every other horse in the race to accurately assess the chance of the one with the best chance of winning? Therefore – if the “best chance” is poor value -why not use time you’ve spent working the race out to find a bet that is value?

    Value Is Everything
    #1233921
    nwalton
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    • Total Posts 3599

    That’s where we work differently GT and i suppose its the old adage ‘if it works for you’

    If i make a selection who i believe will win the race,i could not then change my mind(find another selection)due to the price,where you obviously can.Not saying you are wrong to do so,but its not for me and i am probably to old to change my tried and tested ways.although i like hearing how others work

    #1233922
    Karinga Bay
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    • Total Posts 88

    Do you have a standard stake N? If you do change it, do you do so because you think it is a better value bet?

    #1233923
    nwalton
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    • Total Posts 3599

    KB i stick rigidly to the £100 PP,max 10 point bet.(£1000 outlay) On a few occasions i do go over the top,these are very rare now days,obviously getting on,normally do the rounds in london with my son and most of the larger staked bets are on the boxing(normally group round betting or MOV).

    Its alot harder nowdays (started full time 1991) still did the odd jobs in the early years,but now not much call for a stone mason and my old bones cant take it anymore.Very rarely try to get on online waste of time.

    #1233924
    Karinga Bay
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    • Total Posts 88

    As you and GT have said, all down to what suits the individual at the end of the day. For a few years I tried to bet by going for a horse which I thought was nailed on but I couldn’t make it pay doing it that way myself.

    #1233925
    nwalton
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    • Total Posts 3599

    you really have to shut the whole world out,it can be very lonely.Best advice i was given was from timeform’s jim mcgarth,something along the lines of trust your eye’s not your ears.

    #1233928
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 34717

    Best advice i was given was from timeform’s jim mcgarth,something along the lines of trust your eye’s not your ears.

    and stop reading racing forums……… :whistle:

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #1233929
    nwalton
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    • Total Posts 3599

    lol yes nathan they’re full of sad lonely men talking racing and wittering on

    #1233930
    nwalton
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    • Total Posts 3599

    sorry to gingertips for hi jacking the thread,i will now have my medication and depart to bed

    #1233984
    TimJames
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    • Total Posts 313

    you really have to shut the whole world out,it can be very lonely.Best advice i was given was from timeform’s jim mcgarth,something along the lines of trust your eye’s not your ears.

    I love the phrase ‘Trust 10% of what you see and nothing of what you hear’.

    #1234020
    Avatar photoyeats
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    • Total Posts 3698

    you really have to shut the whole world out,it can be very lonely.Best advice i was given was from timeform’s jim mcgarth,something along the lines of trust your eye’s not your ears.

    Funnily enough Jim McGrath has always made reference and still does to things John Francome has said. Maybe it depends on who’s infiltrating his ears.

    #1234028
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 34704

    Best advice i was given was from timeform’s jim mcgarth,something along the lines of trust your eye’s not your ears.

    That old pearl of wisdom came originally from founder of Timeform, Phil Bull.

    Value Is Everything
    #1234039
    nwalton
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    • Total Posts 3599

    the likes of phil bull,reg griffin are sadly missed in my opinion at halifax house.Maybe again its because i am older than the new timeform brigade,i just have ‘um.Watered the product down to much and to listen to some on tv is quite heart breaking to think they are now the ‘brains’ behind timeform.

    Thanks for the GT and i always thought that was a jimbo pearl.

    #1234041
    Avatar photobetlarge
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    • Total Posts 2806

    Best advice i was given was from timeform’s jim mcgarth,something along the lines of trust your eye’s not your ears.

    That old pearl of wisdom came originally from founder of Timeform, Phil Bull.

    Did the Google thing. There’s a definitive use of ‘Believe none of what you hear, and only half of what you see’ from Edgar Allen Poe in 1845 and some attribution to Benjamin Franklin in the 18th century. It’s suggested it may be an old English idiom as far back as the 13th Century.

    Probably best if we took the advice of the saying itself..!

    Mike

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