Home › Forums › Archive Topics › Trends, Research And Notebooks › Using market (shortening) to pinpoint value on out of form horses/trainers
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betlarge.
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- February 16, 2016 at 19:50 #1233918
sorry KB didn’t see your answer.This one finger typing takes to long.lol
February 16, 2016 at 19:51 #1233919Me too, I’ll be back…..
February 16, 2016 at 19:59 #1233920why look elsewhere? You think horse A will win,but you dont like the price,surely that becomes a no bet race.
as said we all have differing ideas,but if i cant get the price(i want) for my selection i would not go looking for another bet in the race.Nothing wrong with only backing the horse you think has the best chance of winning when believing it value and not betting when believing it not value. But you’re cutting down enormously on the number of bets. If I’ve spent a lot of time working out a race I’d want to use that time to find a bet.
Surely a punter needs to accurately assess every other horse in the race to accurately assess the chance of the one with the best chance of winning? Therefore – if the “best chance” is poor value -why not use time you’ve spent working the race out to find a bet that is value?
Value Is EverythingFebruary 16, 2016 at 20:05 #1233921That’s where we work differently GT and i suppose its the old adage ‘if it works for you’
If i make a selection who i believe will win the race,i could not then change my mind(find another selection)due to the price,where you obviously can.Not saying you are wrong to do so,but its not for me and i am probably to old to change my tried and tested ways.although i like hearing how others work
February 16, 2016 at 20:14 #1233922Do you have a standard stake N? If you do change it, do you do so because you think it is a better value bet?
February 16, 2016 at 20:24 #1233923KB i stick rigidly to the £100 PP,max 10 point bet.(£1000 outlay) On a few occasions i do go over the top,these are very rare now days,obviously getting on,normally do the rounds in london with my son and most of the larger staked bets are on the boxing(normally group round betting or MOV).
Its alot harder nowdays (started full time 1991) still did the odd jobs in the early years,but now not much call for a stone mason and my old bones cant take it anymore.Very rarely try to get on online waste of time.
February 16, 2016 at 20:31 #1233924As you and GT have said, all down to what suits the individual at the end of the day. For a few years I tried to bet by going for a horse which I thought was nailed on but I couldn’t make it pay doing it that way myself.
February 16, 2016 at 20:37 #1233925you really have to shut the whole world out,it can be very lonely.Best advice i was given was from timeform’s jim mcgarth,something along the lines of trust your eye’s not your ears.
February 16, 2016 at 20:48 #1233928Best advice i was given was from timeform’s jim mcgarth,something along the lines of trust your eye’s not your ears.
and stop reading racing forums………

Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
February 16, 2016 at 20:50 #1233929lol yes nathan they’re full of sad lonely men talking racing and wittering on
February 16, 2016 at 20:52 #1233930sorry to gingertips for hi jacking the thread,i will now have my medication and depart to bed
February 17, 2016 at 12:02 #1233984you really have to shut the whole world out,it can be very lonely.Best advice i was given was from timeform’s jim mcgarth,something along the lines of trust your eye’s not your ears.
I love the phrase ‘Trust 10% of what you see and nothing of what you hear’.
February 17, 2016 at 14:09 #1234020you really have to shut the whole world out,it can be very lonely.Best advice i was given was from timeform’s jim mcgarth,something along the lines of trust your eye’s not your ears.
Funnily enough Jim McGrath has always made reference and still does to things John Francome has said. Maybe it depends on who’s infiltrating his ears.
February 17, 2016 at 14:33 #1234028Best advice i was given was from timeform’s jim mcgarth,something along the lines of trust your eye’s not your ears.
That old pearl of wisdom came originally from founder of Timeform, Phil Bull.
Value Is EverythingFebruary 17, 2016 at 15:29 #1234039the likes of phil bull,reg griffin are sadly missed in my opinion at halifax house.Maybe again its because i am older than the new timeform brigade,i just have ‘um.Watered the product down to much and to listen to some on tv is quite heart breaking to think they are now the ‘brains’ behind timeform.
Thanks for the GT and i always thought that was a jimbo pearl.
February 17, 2016 at 16:01 #1234041Best advice i was given was from timeform’s jim mcgarth,something along the lines of trust your eye’s not your ears.
That old pearl of wisdom came originally from founder of Timeform, Phil Bull.
Did the Google thing. There’s a definitive use of ‘Believe none of what you hear, and only half of what you see’ from Edgar Allen Poe in 1845 and some attribution to Benjamin Franklin in the 18th century. It’s suggested it may be an old English idiom as far back as the 13th Century.
Probably best if we took the advice of the saying itself..!
Mike
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