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Well I only backed Cirrus at 11/4 but like Animal Kingdom I’ll be laying that all off at around the Even money mark. His form of last year would make him impossible to beat but as he has only run to an OR of at best 120 this year hardly makes him a shoe in with Farhh and Muk both capable of posting figures in the 120s plus Ruler of The World also capable if it is a really strong pace he is not guaranteed to win. A nice place to be for a free bet for me and if he wins you’re losing only a point. Seems like some don’t like this tactic I suppose if it is down to if you are sure he will win or not. Personally I’ll take circa 7/4 for my bet and have my money back if he does not perform or is beaten by an improving horse on the day.
Saying that if he can reproduce anywhere near his run from last year in conditions that would seem to favour him far more than his opposition he is more like a 1/2 chance. His trainer seems to know him well and feels he is back to last years form. Farhh would not have been within 7Ls (taking collateral form of the Juddmonte) if running last year so on that form Cirrus is around 5lbs clear. I’d not be backing him at Evens but he is surely the most likely winner?
I’ll hold my nerve for a bit re laying off as it cannot be guaranteed that market rival Farhh will make the race. If he doesn’t then it will be an obvious opportunity to lay off at odds on. The best price I can see Cirrus on the day if the big layers want to take him on is circa 6/4 so still on a no lose situation with a reasonable upside.
Well done Highland backers – guess there was a clue in the name!
Baccarat seemed to get caught out of his ground 3fs out but stayed on OK for 5th to give a 62% profit on investment which is good enough for me!
Well the price isn’t quite what I would have liked – 12-1 better but now best priced 9-1 for five places with 365 and it is Baccarat for me. I really thought his cosy win in the Gt St Wilfred from an in form course specialist (that I backed) in Spinatrix really looked like the run of a group horse running in handicaps.
Off 101 he probably needs to be able to run to c. 110 in such a competitive race but his run at Ripon caught my eye (and he could be better than this mark by 7 lbs) and I wonder if he can be better than the majority of these who are in the main handicappers.
The ground was G/S at Ripon not the good reported so a reading in the mid 7s upwards would probably be OK any softer with his good action he might be a lay. The closer to good it gets the more I’ll be lumping on.
Aimed at the race all season and getting in off 9-1 OK with PH riding unlikely to be a handicap the only problem for me is ground and whether his chance to win in the race is not obvious that they will extend him to place with next year in mind where he will probably be contesting group races.
Having lumped on Eton Rifles 2 years ago I couldn’t put anyone off his conqueror that day
There is plenty of 25/1 still available Stilvi. Halving in price may sound a lot, but in reality 50/1 to 25/1 is only a reduction of 2.2%.
You mean relative to the market?? Otherwise it’s a 50% reduction in price isn’t it? Likely that JoB is on the best Ballydoyle horse isn’t it? He normally is.
Paddy Power emailed me to give 2-1 for Dawn Approach – only buttons allowed on though. Still win or lose 2-1 is a pretty good price bearing in mind he is 12 lbs clear on Timeform ratings and probably the best horse in the race even without stamina issues and New Approach proved he can get top class 12f horses today.
Well done Talent backers – I ended up doing the Beckett horses for a 1-2 but unfortunately only the one way. Jim Crowley did nothing wrong but Hughes gave his horse a great ride – shame the jockey bookings weren’t the other way round! Interesting to hear Richard after race saying he did some work on her and he wondered why he was riding it!
Banoffee out with washing but that was to be expected given the ground and she also did not handle the track very well – she’s probably a proper G2 horse given G/F ground but this wasn’t the race for her.
It looked a good Oaks but I doubt if there are any super stars in it.
That’s a cool bit of info though at Breakfast with the stars Ralph says that SG shows it at home and Talent saves it for the racecourse. The feeling might be that he has an inkling that Secret Gesture is the better filly? Despite the prices and I’d prefer the jockey bookings the other way round – I would prefer to have my fiver on Secret Gesture – she should be in the three not sure you can be sure of that with Talent (perhaps they will have future engagements in mind for her going forwards?)
It’s a much more open race than the Derby though so you can make a case for any of these fillies (they are fillies after all who can under and over perform on any given day). It would be for me disappointing if Secret Gesture can’t win here and then maybe the race at Ascot in October (doubtful she can be an Arc contender at this stage but she might prove to be after Friday??)
Does it worry you at all that Ralph Beckett doesn’t really have Talent in his thoughts and only has eyes for Secret Gesture?
On form and breeding the market has probably got this right with the front two so no bet for me. I’d have a suspicion that Banoffee would want faster ground than is likely to prevail. She’d actually be a place lay for me given her breeding and form don’t inspire me and especially if the ground has soft in the description.
Secret Gesture was impressive but on form that run means she has to improve to win. Moth probably has the form in the bag to win but
Secret Gesture at Lingfield just looked like she could be something special.
There is nothing special about the prices in the race, however, so can’t see a reason to have a bet.
The CC/CT/TT is clearly interesting (I wonder if they dig out old Red Rum’s bones if he was a CC or a TT??) but we don’t know the sample size and whether the horses included in the results were of a relative class to those they were racing against.
There is a school of thought that horses can stay any distance and it is only how well they perform at that distance. I subscribe to that view.
Dawn Approach will stay 1m4fs (but will prove better between 8-10fs probably), the question is will something have the class AND the stamina to beat him.
It would seem outside of the two unknowns in the French and German horses that there is nothing with his class (other than Magician, more likely to go to SJP at Ascot?).
Chopin by Santiago a horse I know nothing about but his own race record does not inspire you to think he would breed a Derby winner – the winner of a G2 at Capanelle his best result – clearly they either think the race is poor, they are sporting or the trainer (who is no mug) thinks something of the horse.
Ocovango
looks more interesting coming from a master trainer and having won a race that generally works out well over the course of a season last time. He might be the more interesting one outside of Magician
for an EW play
especially if going description has soft in it. He seems to have gears, a good cruising speed, is well balanced, has a willing attitude and should see the trip out OK. His name sounds better in French!
I doubt that this will have been the first investigation into such an aspect and if it is proved that this case is founded on evidence it would seem to be of little surprise. There are a number that can come under suspicion, to be fair one riding for a high profile stable seems to have now cleared up his act but any number of his rides from prior to two years ago could be called into question. This is not (if proven) an isolated case for sure.
Are JoBs comments picking straws out of the wind? In that they sincerely hope that DA won’t stay. That might actually play into DAs hands though if they go out to make it a searching gallop it will Kevin Manning a hack into the race and therefore, perhaps, he will not need to expend too much energy to get to the 3/2 furlong marker. If that is how the race unfolds would the class that DA clearly has and his 2f finishing burst would likely be too strong for this bunch of probably average 3yos? Class can overcome the ability to stay i.e. staying is only relative to the class of the horse. Frankel could probably beat this field by 10+ lengths despite the likelihood that he never would have truly stayed 1m 4fs. DA can’t be in the same class as Frankel but he is probably an above average horse in his generation with Kingsbarns out of the equation. Last years 3yos might be better than this years (still to be seen) but there don’t seem to be too many stars. BoM was only workmanlike in his trial and the other AoB horses beat little in their trials.
Even money is short enough for a Derby and wouldn’t attract my money but I thought Trading Leather was the best Derby horse from the Dante as Libetarian came up the strip of ground that is favoured at York (4-6 horses away from the far side rail) and TL came down on his own on the part of the course that is not well favoured. He seems (TL) to be going to France but that must devalue Libertarian as a selection given he ran like a horse with a few issues – on and off the bridle and looking a difficult ride – difficult to see the Burkes having a placed horse in the Derby let alone a winner. Hopefully Libertarian can run well.
Seems a clutching at straws to say DA won’t stay – it would seem unlikely at this stage that he would need to stay further than 10fs to win here (which given the way he has moved away from his field in all his runs you could not say he wouldn’t stay) given the potential gulf in class, i.e. a 125 (perhaps) rated horse against perhaps 118/120 type horses at best.
I chose not to back Ahern many years ago. Many times he has shown a "lack of judgement" in his races. Perhaps, this is the tip of the iceberg.
On form hard to see IC or CT involved can think of at least three better horses and IC has run to 154 ish on his Argento run so needs to improve 10lbs+ to figure, unlikely given his age, CT would be a more obvious contender as he probably ran to 160+ and that would be a minimum to win a GC.
IC has as much chance of winning a second GC as I have unless BW, LR, SDC, FL, CC, TGB and SC don’t turn up on the day. 7 horses plus CT. He’d have to outrun 5 better placed horses even to get an EW return.
If he gets into a nice rhythm he might be in there fighting coming down the hill but that is not for sure plus the better horses will just go past him. Nice to see him do a victory lap but that will be it.
Imperial Commander cannot win the Gold Cup – it is simple as that.
Which horse was beaten 72Ls by a multiple G1 winner who then went on to win the Ryan Air Chase in his very next race?
Age – 41
Gender – M
Location (area/type) – Manchester unfortunately not great for live racing
Occupation / Class – Recruitment – First lol
Political views – Left
Relationship status – Married with son
How often do you go racing? – not as often as I like 5-6 times a year
Favourite racecourse(s)? – Goodwood, York, Newbury (creche great idea!)
How would you improve the racegoing experience? Better and cheaper restaurant experience for people with kids, better food
What initially got you into racing? My Grandad around the age of 4!
Which other sports to you watch? Football some others like Snooker
Flat or Jumps? Both depends which one is on, I’ve only ever owned flat horses as having lost hunters be devastated to lose one
Favourite horse(s) of all time? – Frankel, Carroll House, Long Run
Racing hero(s)? Paul Nicholls is quite a straight up guy and is a credit to his profession who has taken on the media age, Sir Henry without a doubt!
Do you gamble? (if so to what extent, if not why not) Yes, mostly on Saturdays or when attending race days
What are your views on promotion of the sport? Could always be better, I think it is a hard market with so many other entertainment opportunities and will always struggle against other main stream sports
What are your views on animal welfare? – I love animals, I’m vegetarian so have a strange juxtaposition with horse racing because of that. It’s hard to justify something like the Grand National but race horse are looked after well (at least while they are still racing) and my view is millions of animals are killed on a daily basis under much worse circumstances that a horse going out to do what they love (in the main part)
How would you improve the sport in general? Thats’s tricky so many ways. It needs to get into the mainstream commercial angle more but most people I know only have one relationship with racing and that is at Aintree each April. We have so many actual better races and it is a matter of promoting them to a wider public that is the challenge.
Finally, is racing bent? Yes to some level, it is inherent in the handicapping system but that is part of the game. The day I write the A Heffernan has been banned for 15 years. Ir was much worse years ago where jockeys (oncluding one known ex TV face) would meet up in the backrooms of casinos and decide who would win which race, it’s far more professional, competitive and better policed than those days
Anything else? Yes The Sunday Forum on ATR it’s down to about 45 minutes now – can you talk about racing!! Instead of spending the first 10 minutes talking about rubbish (McCretin moslty)
