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I accept "nearly got to" was a bit over the top, but he was closing down Burton Port to the line and he lost all rhythm with his jumping after an early mistake. I really believe that he will at least reverse the form with Burton Port and maybe fill the frame or better. We’ll have our mythical match bet so and best of luck to both pilots and beasts!
Well maybe it would be better to watch the race rather than rely on in running comments. Knockara Beau jumped markedly to the left at every fence, he took half of the fences with him and was still closing down Burton at the line. If he’d even jumped adequately and no better he would have won the race comfortably. Just watch the race and tell me honestly which one you would take out of the race for the future. If Knockara jumps like that at cheltenham he wont complete the race but i expect him to put in a much better round of jumping going the right way (the left way
)and at least he’s proved he can survive a serious blunder (or six as the last day proved). There are speedier types in the line up but not many tougher and trainer has said all along that he would only be 100% for this race and everything else was a build up.Dont rule our Knockara Beau, jumped like a flapping pony at a puissance last time but was going the wrong way round and still nearly got to Burton Port (who jumped well) at the end. Looks like he’l improve no end for going back left handed, he has plenty of experience and is very tough. Jockey is a worry but the horse has good course form (mugged by Weird Al ealrier in season) and this is a race that can really come down to who toughs it out the best on the day. The RSA is not alway a race for the classiest horse. Really like Knockara as an each way play in this at anything over 20/1.
4/6 for a horse a stone in hand of everything except short-runner Twist Magic, coming off the 2nd best run of his life in what was only a warm-up, and in a race he has hacked up in for the past 2 seasons?
Shocking value, innit?
Twist Magic has looked anything but a short runner this season. MMs 2nd best run of his life involved giving a fair beating to Mahogany Blaze, a horse who is probably a grade 3 performer at best. He beat nothing that day and would have been bitterly disappointing had he not dominated like he did.
As for having a stone in hand of everything else….I dont think he had a stone in hand of Big Zeb at Punchestown last season. So with 3 or 4 very credible challengers and lingering doubts as to whether MM is back to his very best I do believe that (win, lose or draw) 4/6 is indeed shocking valueSurely Jumbo Rio will have a great chance. He’ll travel well off any pace and will relish the hill. Also he’ll be trained to the minute for this. His French form is top class and he only has 4 lengths to find with Solwhit (after racing too keenly) on recent form in Ireland. He is a fast improver in an open race and it would be very foolish to ignore his chance. 100/1 is tremendous value
Quick qeustion folks, When would the adjusted official rating be published for Diamond, Bensalem and Inchidaly after Saturdays race?
Alan King has said about entering Bensalem in the William hill, a race he won in the past with novice Fork Lightning. Theres a big difference though, Fork lightning won off 136 and carried 10 1/2 stone whereas surely Bensalem will be 150 plus and carring 11 stone and more against seasoned handicappers.
What about the forgotten horse Whiteoak, pulled too hard last time but back on good ground over the perfect trip, surely 12/1 is too big, she at least looks a definite runner at this stage. I m amazed the Voler isnt going for the champion. She looks so speedy i’d have major doubts about her getting up that hill. Thought she could win the champion off a fast pace.
I’m in the Tidal camp big time. For anyone who questions his attitude or points at his sometimes ridiculous head carriage as serious flaws, just look at his overall record. 23 races: 11 wins 8 seconds 1 3rd.It saddens me a little that connections have wasted a season and half persisting with a horse who could never put in a fluent round of chasing (even for his arkle and aintree successes). We could have had a Big Bucks/Punch/Tidal Bay world hurlde last year! What a race that could have been. Tidal Bay is far and away the biggest threat to Big Bucks this year. He really should improve enormously on better ground. Previous stamina doubts over the 3 miles are a distant memory. i would’nt be surprised in the least if he dethrones Big Bucks this year and hopefully the engine will last long enough for a complete hurdles campaign the following season.
I think anyone who intends laying Dunguib for the supreme is backing him to fall in the race. He does seem to be a bit of a freak and i dont expect to see his like again for a long long time.
Has anyone considered that maybe part of his current jumping issues stems from trying to jump out of bottomless ground? Most everything in his pedigree suggests he should prefer better ground and that is borne out by his performance on good ground at chelt last year. I expect he’ll produce a much more fluent round of jumping on better ground.
Also if you look at the current ante post market now and compare with the day of the race field you’ll probably find many near the top of the ante post market take in other options at the festival or just avoid Dunguib altogether and aim for Aintree or Punchestown etc. My point is (bar a fall) its not enough to think ,as a layer, you can get Dunguib beat in the supreme….you need other trainers to believe it too..or else the supreme will end up a race made up of one superstar and 20 odd other horses who are having a go because of a lack of strength in depth to the field and the hope that dunguib falls.
At this stage I would be very impressed with what i’ve seen from Pittoni. He reminds me a little of his stablemate Solhwit. His jumping still leaves a lot to be desired but he has plently of size and scope so expect him to get progressively better with experience. He has a very high cruising speed and already looks ultra tough. He should improve markedly on anything he has acheived to date when he gets a stronger pace and looks the type who’ll love cheltenham particularly the hill. His trainer has expressed doubts about his ability to act on quicker ground but his breeding suggeests that proper national hunt good ground shouldn’t be a problem. If he goes to the triumph he could well start close to favourite which would make quotes of 16/1 still freely available look very big.
Agree completely. 10/1 on VPU with Magic Sign is madness. All going well he’s a definite runner, his runs this season are alot better than they look on paper. Even if you dont see him as the race winner its very hard to argue that he wont start a far shorter price on the day when many in the current ante post market wont even be lining up.
I dont think Zaarito will be brought to Cheltenham, far more likely that a domestic campaign is planned. He took along time to get over his Chelt bumper experience
As for Dunguib and Voler la Vedette. Dunguib at 4s with a run for Champion Hurdle glory is ridiculous – he would be an 8s or 10s shot. Voler la Vedette has become something of a talking horse. Her from isn’t up to scratch whatever you you slice it. I also think that Quevega is a better mare and if Willie Mullins thinks he can’t win a Champion hurdle with her then there isn’t a mare in training who could.
Be very wary of dismissing Voler la vedette. There was no fluke about her destruction of Go Native at Down royal. I accecpt that the ground was softer than ideal for Go Native that day but He has since come out and won twice on ground softer than good.
VLVs last win looks disappointing from a form book perspective but i was hugely impressed. She pulled violently for most of the race and it was her class that got her home over a trip i dont believe she stays. She will be a very different proposition over a fast run 2 miles.
Also contrary to some who believe her to be a mudlark, her breeding suggests that she will be at least as effective on better ground. Murphy commented after that Down royal win "She`s unlikely to run before Christmas if the ground stays like this".
I think if she hadn beaten Go Native so far at Down royal, (say she’d won by half a length or even benn beaten by same distance) she’d be a more fashionable proposition. The assumption is that Because Go Native was beaten 13l he can’t have given his true running. This is a very dangerous assumption.Hi folks i have 2 questions?
1. How many runners do you think there will be in the race?
2.Just wondering what price you think Powerstation should be for a place?Personnally i cant see him out of the frame as he’ll be ridden for a place as opposed to Karabak/sentry who’ll be trying to topple Big Bucks. I’d much prefer to be on a proven stayer like Powerstation who has consistently overperformed at Chelt than a possible non stayer like Sentry Duty who has run well at chelt only once from 3 runs. I believe 33/1 powerstation is a gift from an each way perspective
I fancied Binocular last year but didn’t have a bet, I rarely bet in The Champion Hurdle, but he’s not shown anything this season to make me think he’ll win it the 2010 renewal. Neither did Kirriemuir in 1965 of course, co-incidentally also third the previous year.
Until the trainers of either of the outstanding Irish novices, Dunguib, Voler La Vadette, come to the obvious conclusion that there is no outstanding hurdler in this years Champion Hurdle I’d be very wary about risking any Ante Post money……that said, Cashman’s 4-1 Dunguib with a run sounds very generous but this might be one of these years where something so far unconsidered comes out of the left field, one that’s managed to avoid interuptions to its preperation from the weather.
I’d advise waiting to nearer the dayVoler La Vadette is not a novice
Incredible comeback from Captain Cee Bee today, jumped really well apart from getting a bit close to the 2nd last. He travelled like all the old abililty remains and battled when challenged on ground he would have detested. He should come on a tonne for the run and improve stones when he gets some better ground. Provided he stays sound he’s already my idea of a Cheltenham nap. He’s still available at 25/1 after todays race which is amazing value in my opinion. He’s probably going to have only one or 2 more races before Cheltenham (Leop christmas maybe) and if he gets to the Arkle unbeaten (and i think he will) he wont be bigger that 5 or 6/1 on the day. Alot of ifs there, but this fella has a huge engine. Get on!!
There s a definite lack of pace angles in saturdays race and agree completely that forpady is completely wrong price.MoCoy will most likely be able to dictate his own pace and if for pady won’t like the ground you can bet it will inconvenience twist magic even more. I was delighted that well chief won at aintree but looking at the form objectively he beat an injured master minded and mahogany blaze by very little. At current prices Mahogany Blaze is 8 or 9 times the price of Mahogany Blaze for a 1 1/4l beating at level weights. It’s 155-160 form at best and in my book Well Chief should be a longer price than forpady who badly needed his comeback run behind Herecomesthe truth, but he did jump and travel very well that day. I still think Big Zeb is the most obvious winner but he still has questions to answer on the jumping front, and he’ll never carry my money at such a short price
My book for the race would be
Big Zeb 11/8
FPTP 7/2
Twist Magic 7/2
Well Chief 11/2
Maghogany Blaze 16/1So at current best prices available I think FPTP at 7/1 and Mahogany at 33/1 (both available at the magic sign)are the value in the race.
