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Just 11 declared with 2 of the antepost favourites coming out. Also it seems that Ballyoptic will go to Ascot as his first preference. The ground will be bottomless so I would guess that only 4 or 5 will complete the course. In those circumstances I think a lowly weighted horse might just cause an upset. POBBLES BAY is a slow but steady horse and he will carry 10 stone ( 1lb overweight). I think there is a good chance he will be ridden to pick up ‘place’ money and I have backed him at 20/1 for an each way bet.
I fancy the chances of POBBLES BAY each way in the WGN. He ran in the race 2 years ago and looked like the winner 4 out but faded into 7th. He may well have tried his luck in this marathon test a year or two too early and I am hopeful that his display in the West Wales National last April ( which he won on the snaff) demonstrates that he will see out the trip this time. It should also be noted that he carries 5lb less this time and also that he has winning form at Chepstow off his current mark of 139.
Well spotted Mike and extremely interesting news for owners of horses currently out of the handicap including my fancy for the race.
Entries can be made up to 19 November and the prices being offered look pretty skinny. Also for long odds horses the best prices have often been available on the day of the race. So as my fancy is an outsider I am going to hang on for a while.
I think CLYNE looks just the type to take this race. He is tough and genuine but usually finds one too good at this level. However he has excellent Haydock form and 3 miles on a flat track could bring out the best in him.
I am going to have a pound each way on complete outsider POBBLES BAY. He looks very well handicapped on some of his form and could well return to form having been lightly raced this season.
Raymo61 I was at Newbury watching the Long Distance Hurdle very closely because of a personal interest and, in my view, MOMELLA could not possibly have found the pace, after 3 miles,to win that race. Even Harry Fry agreed with that analysis. That is not to say that she will not win at Ascot but, in my view, she did not get into a position to win at Newbury.
I cannot see beyond CLYNE if he repeats his form of the Aintree Hurdle when he looked as if the extra half mile would be no problem as he galloped on relentlessly.
Ginger. Pobbles Aintree run did not disappoint me, the jockey or the trainer. He was favouring his right foreleg early on but jumped straight up the home straight.
Thanks Kev yes I have an interest I am the owner and like most owners I have both eyes fixed on one horse which makes owners the worst tipsters in the world !!
Pobbles Bay for me.Always looked the type for this race.Unfortunately will blow his handicap mark for the Midlands National after hosing up tomorrow.
If POBBLES BAY ‘hoses up’ tomorrow the target is not likely to be the Midlands Grand National as there is a £100,000 bonus for the winner of the Welsh Grand National if he can also win the Scottish Grand National. There is also that race at Aintree in April to consider !
ON THE ROAD also has Earth Summit in his pedigree ( winner of Welsh Grand National and Grand National)
I notice that PRICEWISE has analysed the race today in the Racing Post. I am delighted that he has tipped my selection POBBLES BAY. This horse has Chepstow form and seems to stay for ever. He has also been targetted at this race and Evan Williams says he will run. Mind you I am biased !!
