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Hi Raymo, the point I was making was nothing to do with bookies knowing before punters, or vice versa
for that matter. Trying to outsmart and get the edge on each other, as you rightly say, has been part
of the game from the year dot. The point I was making was that when a trainer (Nicholls, in the case
of the Becher Chase) or owner (Gary O’Brien in the case of the Welsh National) state publicly that the
horse wont be running, and it’s very publicly reported, then Bookmakers should pull the horse from
the betting. To continue taking bets when they are aware that there is no chance of the horse running
is simply taking money under false pretences. It’s completely different if there are doubts about the
horse making the race or wont go on the ground, the odds may lengthen because of that, and it’s up to
the punter to take the chance. Half of the bookies did remove Folsom Blue after O’Brien’s comments,
others left him in the market, and some were still offered odds this morning when by this time there
was absolutely no doubt he would not be running.Apologies Raymo if you feel I was diverting the issue away from the Welsh National, but he was an entry
in the race and it’s a subject that gets my hackles up. Good luck with your three
No problem Graham
It is good to have differing opinions and nobody should apologise for having one!! LOLLooks like only two of mine are turning up if it is on!!
I’m looking at the bottom of the handicap for the bog snorkelling championships and my first selection for this is Evan Williams’ On the Road. He wasn’t overly highly rated as a hurdler but jumped too big and careful over hurdles- not a bad attribute jumping Chepstow’s fences out of hock deep. He looks quite a balanced, good jumper and with Mitch Bastyan on board carries the minimum of 10st through the mud. He has also won on heavy before and wears a first time tongue tie.
Negatives- hasn’t won at Chepstow…but tracks he has won at not dissimilar. Not as much experience as some…but doesn’t look fazed jumping in the midst of a pack. Biggest question is the trip- winning over 3m+ is a big trend for this race and he hasn’t. His breeding gives me some hope: he’s by Stowaway whose progeny include Outlander and The World’s End; and his damsire Gunner B got Red Marauder (’nuff said), Iris’s Gift and Forest Gunner amongst others.
I’ve taken the 33s still available EW with b365 4 places.I’ll probably add Firebird Flyer who is also kicking around the bottom of the handicap- he was a never-nearer second the year Mountainous won it on heavy-heavy and the slew of PUs by his name doesn’t worry me overly as he finished off his race on reappearance OK. With his holdup style he’s a hostage to fortune but if he stays out of trouble – and doesn’t get shuffled right to the back on the first bend and think “sod this game, I’m out”- he should have plenty of time to work his way into the race. I think his price has a better chance of holding up than OTR’s so will look for an extra place tomorrow.
I really liked On The Road for the handicap hurdle the other week before the meeting was abandoned (was well backed overnight), so I think i’ll have to have an e/w go on him also. Like the form behind Sykes when he was staying on well in second. Sykes is now around 12-15lbs more than when winning that day.
Mitch is full value for his 5lb and with bottom weight the big prices around look very attractive come tomorrow when books will go 5/6 places.
Left my antepost on Pobbles Bay who I think still has a good chance and think i’ll have a saver on Mysteree as he’s got to be going close based on his form and weight turn with Chase The Spud.
Pobbles Bay for me.Always looked the type for this race.Unfortunately will blow his handicap mark for the Midlands National after hosing up tomorrow.
ON THE ROAD also has Earth Summit in his pedigree ( winner of Welsh Grand National and Grand National)
Pobbles Bay for me.Always looked the type for this race.Unfortunately will blow his handicap mark for the Midlands National after hosing up tomorrow.
If POBBLES BAY ‘hoses up’ tomorrow the target is not likely to be the Midlands Grand National as there is a £100,000 bonus for the winner of the Welsh Grand National if he can also win the Scottish Grand National. There is also that race at Aintree in April to consider !
On the Road is the only one of my fancied horses that I’ve backed thus far, as his price seems to be coming in. I’m following ‘Stowaways’ at the moment, after he was mentioned on the excellent NH pedigree thread. I think I may add Pobbles Bay tonight as well given that he has course form. Am wondering what chance there is of the race going ahead, though.
Bit of a damp squib for me now, with the original abandonment.
Most of my bets were returned when Betfair voided it, and I cancelled what I could of the others. Shame about Folsom Blue, as I’d kept him, but he wasn’t the biggest bet. Main loser was Kasbah, and can’t argue at the decision in all fairness, and if he was mine, I’d have pulled him too. He’ll have other days surely this season.
I’m left with Mysteree at 20’s, but I’d like another one, and I’m happy to chance Vicente here. Very nice run at Cheltenham last time, going should be no problem, and I think his mark is fair. Doesn’t look the strongest renewal ever, and if his jumping holds up (which isn’t a given), then I think that’s a more than generous each way price, with 6 Places up for grabs.
I’ll probably add an outsider before the off, and looking at Alfie Spinner, and Buckhorn Timothy.
On The Road may be related to Earth Summit, but for me everything else about the horse means he’s a massive stamina doubt. Fully effective at 2 1/2 miles, outstayed at 3 1/4m and with heavy ground now has an even greater stamina test, plus a much bigger field to contend with too.
Done Wild West Wind and saved on Mysteree.
Of the outsiders I fancy Bishops Road 16/1, O’Faolain’s Boy 25/1 and Milansbar 16/1.Am concerned with how Bishops Road handles his fences in this size of field, but stable in good form, stays the trip well on this ground, ran well enough last time out over an inadequate trip and now back to the same handicap mark as when winning the Grand National trial.
OFaolains Boy might not be fit for reappearance, but Barry Gerraghty an eye catching booking – not been on board since the horse was at his peak – worth taking a chance on fitness. Thrown in on some form and has had a breathing op’ since last seen. Trainer hasn’t hit the heights so far this season but is showing signs of a return to form.
Milansbar was 2 3/4 lengths behind the progressive Wild West Wind last time out and now 4 lbs better off with the favourite. That race at 3 miles and may need an out and out stamina test these days. 11 lbs lower mark than when 2 lengths second of 18 in 2016 Midlands Grand National. Can get behind and/or throw a wobbly, but with first time cheek pieces worth a chance at the price.
Value Is EverythingThanks Kev yes I have an interest I am the owner and like most owners I have both eyes fixed on one horse which makes owners the worst tipsters in the world !!
Let’s hope he’s fully recovered from his injury, then [must have been a sickener, that…]. Certainly seems to have a better chance of staying than OtR. Years ago Niche Markets owner was on a forum I belonged to, and we went through all the trials and tribulations with him; it was a great time as we all felt he sort of belonged to us, too! Best of luck if the race goes ahead.
Dunno why Alfie Spinner is 3 times the price of WWW when, with the latter’s penalty and riders’ claims taken into consideration, he’ll be 12lb better off than last time they met (yes I know claimers are claimers for a reason…but still).
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