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Gord why do you like FINN MCCOLL breeding so much he was meant to race vs Kingbarns. but Joseph picked other horse instead so may not be forward enough yet.
And gord where do you rate Frankel in terms of being the best horse ever. i been following racing since 2008 so did not see other greats where would you rate FRANKEL in terms of Zarkava and Sea The Stars out of the 3 who is the better horse.
At this stage of an unraced 2yo’s career the breeding is about all we can gauge their potential from and this
Finn McCool
is bred to be a Derby Horse,his sire won the 2001 Derby and his Dams sire won the 1978 event,his dam herself stayed every yard of 11/2m and having always had a soft spot for the ‘Fittocks stud’fillies then this fellow is for watching imo.I bet you cant remember the name of the first ‘Fittocks stud’ filly who made a name for herself Darren,she beat a proper Guineas filly in ‘Al Bahathri’in her day!
Frankel
is not the best horse ever,
Dancing Brave
is!
I dont even compare the 3 you name as over 11/2m we really wouldn’t know who’d win as we have nothing to gauge ‘Frankel’ on formlines with,Sea the stars
and
Zarkava
wouldn’t have half a length seperating them though over that trip imo.
Is this a comedy show? You can’t judge Frankel V Sea the Stars V Zarkava but you can judge Dancing Brave V Frankel
Keep em coming Gord u put em up I’ll shoot em down3:05 Newmarket
63 points @ 13/8 (PP) So Beloved* (min 6/4)Saw this horse win at Salisbury. Big and powerful, came through to win his maiden going away (1m soft). I’m a little disappointed he’s going for this instead of the Racing Post, so highly do I rate him. Unlike his main rival there are no going concerns and unlike third favourite there’s no stamina issues either.
In a five runner race there’s always a possibility of a slowly run race – something that’s particularly favourable to front runners at this track. Hopefully James Doyle will be alive to the threat. If the pace was guaranteed I’d make So Beloved an odds-on chance, as it is anything above 11/8 is worth taking (imo).Unlucky, I was of the same mind and I think you read him right Ginge. Not the first time a young horse with as big a frame as he has ends up all at sea on ground like today.
People tend to forget how weak a 2 year old can be despite their appearance and when they pull as hard as he did today they very seldom get home. There’s a lot to like about him despite today’s result and he’ll be one to follow next year
I couldn’t get onto their website (SKYBET) I thought it was just busy then I remembered Thailand is not on the list of countries Skybet will allow you to open an account from’ I bypassed the block and got onto their website ok but and guess who closed his UK account with them recently because they wouldn’t lay me a 300 quid bet plus I told them to go F themselves………sook sook can I re open my old account please:oops: Me thinks they will tell me to go F myself.
Guess I’ll just have to find a way to hack Ginger’s computer and steal his password
It would seem you must register with Skybet the worlds worst bookie before you can watch replays………………You got to love em with their special offers……today it was 18/1 for 5 or more favs to win at Exeter
Grand total of zero won.tbh I have ever seen a special bet of theirs that has come up. It’s like an advert for whatever you do don’t bet these.
It depends on what country your from/in. The term a distance horse was used in the old days in the UK to decribe St Leger winners Goodwood Cup winners etc I’ve seen it often in old articles written about stayers.
In the USA Zenyatta was often referred to as a distance horse although to us she was more speed than stamina.
In Australian it’s the same I believe, anything that’s not a sprinter is referred to as a distance horse
Different countries would appear to have different ideas of what it’s supposed to mean.
I’m forever disputing rating with Timeform but they do have the impossible task of comparing generations.
They very much tie themselves to all Group winners who are beaten by the Nijinsky’ of racing being much the same as a a guide.
You only need to listen them and you here it often enough he won x amount of group racing and beat x amount of group winner.
Too bad if the Group race they won were crap there’s not a lot of room to be playing with.
Rated between 130 and 133 there are 10 horses in Europe currently crammed together.
Going back 40 years and trying to cram that lot in is an impossible task.
It doesn’t really matter to the individual what Timeform think if Nijinsky gave you the buzz that said this horse would have destroyed Sea the Stars and he gort your heart pumping I’d say your probably right.
That is where I dispute Frankel’s right to have ousted Sea-Bird both would have knocked your socks off I simply couldn’t split them but probably for commercial reasons Timeform saw the opportunity and took it. Do they think Frankel in their heart of hearts was the greatest of all time?……some perhaps but not all.
One of the best we’ve ever seen is about the most used phrase by trainers this week very few say he is the greatest of all time.
I’m a Secretariat man: Frankel awesome display in the Guineas 15 lengths clear after 4 furlong made all won by a diminishing 5 lengths clearly running out of petrol in the closing stages
Secretariat in the Belmont Stakes went 15 lengths clear….then 20 then 25 then increased the distance to a staggering 31 lengths and clocked furlong after furlong at top speed.
If Frankel is 147 horse in my book Secretariat was a 151 horse At the end of the day it’s only an opinion and proves nothing.
Probably the biggest load of codswallop I have ever witnessed on this forum, it’s so big I even considered leaving the room for 5 minutes to catch my breath.
It’s one thing disagreeing with someone but to come out without any sound argument against and nothing but blatant rudeness.
Makes you look like a lowlife fool sunshine and I doubt if anyone cares if you held your breath for 5 minutes and never came back
People keep going on about what Frankel did to Excelebration as if he’s the only or the best horse he ever beat.
Think back to Goldikova. If someone had told us that a miler was going to come along and make her kook ordinary then another miler was going come along and make him look like a handicapper you’d have thought they were mad.
Goldikova was the Queen of the turf a goddess or racing to maany on both sides of the Atlantic. Along came Canford Cliffs hailed as the best I’ve ever sat on buy Champion Jockey Richard Hughes and the best I’ve ever trained by classic winning trainer Richard Hannon.
Describes as a monster and in a different league to Hannon’s very talented Paco Boy by Hughsie, few could argue with him that he was an awesome horse, a brilliant miler as he racked up the wins.
Held up in his work he only managed 3rd in the 2000 guineas but once the cobwebs were out he won 5 consecutive Group 1’s including the Irish 2000 Guineas, The St James Palace Stakes, The Sussex Stakes The Locking and the Queen Anne Stakes
Then along comes this young whippersnapper Frankel who without as much as breaking sweat makes this brilliant miler look like a one paced handicapper.
Excuses were made and Canford Cliffs retired but rumour has it they thought continuing was senseless as despite his undoubted talent he could never beat Frankel.
Frankel went on to prove that no matter what excuses had been made, he was every bit as good as that defeat of Canford Cliffs made him look.
Frankel in his entire career had only one questionable performance to his name but after his defeat of Canford Cliffs he put together one stunning performance after another.
Timeform decided his overall form was deserving in a massive hike in rating which is not hard to understand. It wasn’t any one performances it was the combination of one mind blowing performance after the other.
I may not agree with his ousting of Sea-Bird but there’s no doubt in my mind he’s the first horse since Sea-Bird won the Arc that they could have justified doing it with.
Frankel was so good no one not me, not anyone will ever convince his loyal fans he’s not the greatest of all time so why bother?
He succeeded where others like Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard, Nijinsky etc. They had their chances they simply weren’t good enough or never put enough sparkling performance together like he did.
Not very..Guys I think I should have said lesser races rather than minor races when I was talking about BrGerard…….Mill Reef went on to win
the Derby
the King George and
The Arc
where the opposition is somewhat tuffer most years. No disrespect meant to BG at all…..sorry!!!
I like mince and tatties and Perth races except for bumpers.
Love to know how many favs got stuffed in bumpers last season………I’d bet it’s the higher than novice hurdles or chases….
I hear Sprinter Sacre first run of the season will be Sunday 18th November at Cheltenham and not the Tingle Creek as reported in the Racing Post
I’m forever disputing rating with Timeform but they do have the impossible task of comparing generations.
They very much tie themselves to all Group winners who are beaten by the Nijinsky’ of racing being much the same as a a guide.
You only need to listen them and you here it often enough he won x amount of group racing and beat x amount of group winner.
Too bad if the Group race they won were crap there’s not a lot of room to be playing with.
Rated between 130 and 133 there are 10 horses in Europe currently crammed together.
Going back 40 years and trying to cram that lot in is an impossible task.
It doesn’t really matter to the individual what Timeform think if Nijinsky gave you the buzz that said this horse would have destroyed Sea the Stars and he gort your heart pumping I’d say your probably right.
That is where I dispute Frankel’s right to have ousted Sea-Bird both would have knocked your socks off I simply couldn’t split them but probably for commercial reasons Timeform saw the opportunity and took it. Do they think Frankel in their heart of hearts was the greatest of all time?……some perhaps but not all.
One of the best we’ve ever seen is about the most used phrase by trainers this week very few say he is the greatest of all time.
I’m a Secretariat man: Frankel awesome display in the Guineas 15 lengths clear after 4 furlong made all won by a diminishing 5 lengths clearly running out of petrol in the closing stages
Secretariat in the Belmont Stakes went 15 lengths clear….then 20 then 25 then increased the distance to a staggering 31 lengths and clocked furlong after furlong at top speed.
If Frankel is 147 horse in my book Secretariat was a 151 horse At the end of the day it’s only an opinion and proves nothing.
It is the Sea The Stars thing that really irritates me. There is not one formline that entitles him to be mentioned in the same sentence as the likes of Frankel, Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard, Sea Bird, Ribot. He just beat a poor bunch, Mastercraftsman, Youmzain, Rip Van Winkle – they would be absolutely destroyed by the above horses.
He was a good looking horse though
Funny enough David Cleary one of the best judges of horse flesh in the UK thought he was a star. Maybe he has shares in him I’m with you I thought he was a very good horse nothing more nothing less. A big plus was he won at three trips but those you mention could put distance between themselves and their opponents within a couple of hundred yards something Sea the Stars seemed incapable of.
His fans will argue he only did what he had to but that’s the biggest crock in racing. What he did is what he was capable of no doubt in my mind on that score.
You look at any race he won and put the likes of Dancing Brave or Nijinsky upsides him a furlong and half out and what’s he going to do? Sprout wings…..Almost every good horse has the ability to travel well what separates them is their ability to take off like a rocket and leave others in their wake and that’s what he lacked. Imagine him an Frankel going for home at the same time…….Frankel would have put 6 lengths between him and himself in 100yds
Explanation…
But Softie, Fist and Gord don’t ever want to hear about percentages again.
Ahhh too bad. This was what I had worked out for soft, heavy in places… (There’s those dots again)…
I’ll be cheering on Frankel all the way, but both Cirrus and Nathaniel are too big to ignore. I’ve backed them both against him at a combined price of just over 4/1 (in my book it’s a combined 5/2).
Both are proven in soft ground and stay further than Frankel. It looks like being a stamina test.
Still make Frankel favourite, but nowhere near the price this morning.
I’ve got him in my book as a fair
70%
4/9, then it’s 4/1 (20.375%) Cirrus, 12/1 (8%) Nathaniel, 100/1 (1%) Pastorius, 400/1 (0.25%) Master Of Hounds and 800/1 (0.125%) Bullet Train
Come race time (as you predicted Softie) the ground wasn’t quite as bad as forecast. I didn’t make another book on paper afterwards, but mentally I would’ve added to Frankel and Master Of Houmnds, and taken a bit off the others. So more like…
Frankel 75% 1/3, Cirrus 17.825% 9/2, Nathaniel 7% 14/1, Pastorius 0.75% 132/1, Master Of Hounds 0.3% 300/1, Bullet Train 0.125% 800/1. (Forgive me Gord, I’ve used decimals to bring everything to 100%
)So even though I believed Frankel had over 4 times the chance of Cirrus and almost 11 times the chance of Nathaniel… The value bets were Cirrus and Nathaniel.
My Mile book was:
Excelebration 42% 11/8, Cityscape 20% 4/1, Elusive Kate 17% 5/1, Carlton House 12% 15/2, Most Improved 4% 25/1, Side Glance 33/1, Soveriegn Debt 1.5% 66/1, Indomito 0.5% 200/1.With Excelebration having over twice the chance of Cityscape, almost 2 1/2 times Elusive Kate and 3 1/2 times the chance of Carlton House. But as I don’t want to win 42% of my 10/11 bets… Excelebration was not (for me) the bet to strike.
Of course Fist would say (with the benifit of hindsight) I was proved wrong.
Fist – Yes, you did say beforehand Frankel and Excelebration would win. (Well done for tipping a couple of odds-on shots
). Therefore, am I right that you’d say afterwards that you were proved right and me wrong? ie You’d say the result (ie the benifit of hindsight) proves me wrong. But because nobody can back a horse after it has past the post – in my opinion the result can not be taken in to account when assessing whether a horse beforehand is/was value or not. It is the form of every horse beforehand that tells us which horse/s is/are value.If we take the throw of a dice.
If I were to offer odds of 4/1 a throw of a dice… And you back the number 6 and 6 comes up… You win! But was 4/1 value beforehand? Would you have been right beforehand to take the 4/1 as a value price? Of course not, if someone was to bet a lot of 4/1’s about 5/1 chances – there’d be no way the punter would come out on top. Therefore the result does not prove value beforehand.Fist also conveniently forgets I backed Maarek @ 8/1 (SP 5/1),
I used "conveniently forgets" not because you did not know I’d backed Maarek, of course you do. I used those words because (imo) you forget or don’t realise the relevence of me backing both Maarek and Sapphire.
I did NOT back Maarek because I thought it had the best chance of winning. Far from it, I backed it because I considered it a 14% chance (
that’s less than I considered either Cirrus or Cityscape’s chance
). ie I considered it VALUE to win. I also backed Sapphire @ 100/30 (SP 5/2). So "Greatest Punter In The World", you can keep your odds-on winners.
In common with a lot of punters Fist, you seem to believe a 6/1 shot running against a long odds-on fav has a worse chance than a 6/1 shot in any other race. This is not neccessarily the case, it could be either way. Of course every race should be judged on its own merits. But the mere fact there are punters who believe backing against odds-on favs is stupid – means quite often we can get exceptional value.
Don’t expect you to agree Fist, but hope you now understand what I meant?
I’m sorry Ginger but is is the case where Frankel is concerned. The odds of a superstar being turned over against a selling plater being turned over are not the same even if the bookies off the same odds…that’s common sense as you can trust a good horse is more trustworthy than a bad one ….I just feel that to come to the conclusion that opposing the worlds best horse when there are dozens of other races to bet in is not the brightest idea one could have.
Keep em coming Gord u put em up I’ll shoot em down
Grand total of zero won.
