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I don’t know if Lexie would have won, but I think it was either unfortunate early positioning, despite Fallon’s best efforts, or a tactical error on his part; the form of the winner, at least, being too good to give it that lead on that track and expect it to weaken sufficiently to overtake it.
Maybe if she’d had a fantastic break on the inside like Greville Starkey enjoyed that time (I think, on Star Appeal), she would have had a chance, depending on how closely bunched they were at that stage – but not taking her wide and from that far back.
Or am I talking out of the back of my hat? It’s not my pocket.<br>
(Edited by Grimes at 3:43 pm on Oct. 1, 2006)
Yes, Tam Lin’s got some way to go, hasn’t he. But I think he’ll be top liner next year.
But for the Arc, I can’t understand why anyone would want to look beyond Hurricane Run. He’s got the form in the book, on the track and in the race.
All the talk has been about the Japanese job, but HR’s win in the Arc last year was sensational, too. And he’s a heck of a lot more lightly raced, I believe. Maybe, with the small field, he needs a strong pace and won’t get it, but apart from that…? I’ve usually found it’s a bad policy to overlook the obvious form horse, until he proves otherwise. His previous race would have been a prep race, wouldn’t it?
Yes, Salselon, I think Dave Nevison’s got a great sense of humour, and always enjoyed his column. Haven’t read the RFO for a while. Actually, I thought he wrote for the Weekender or another racing paper. A memory lapse on my part, no doubt.
I was impressed with the wealth of information on the runners Thommo was giving out very fast before a sprint on Saturday.
In another connection, reading the significance of the money wagered on the horses in a race and their relative price movements before the start, is usually very difficult, so I’m appalled when some TV journalists  (no names) ooh and aah about a horse being made favourite as if it’s of stunning significance, and then a few seconds later, being told there are now three joint favourites, and just before the off, when it’s too late anyway to bet on it,  one of them ends up as the sole favourite. It’s the mad enthusiasm that slays me.
The same with McEvoy’s double in the first two races, the other day. I think it was Ascot. The commentator must have mentioned, nay, reported this astonishingly rare fact five or six times within the space of two or three minutes. And with such wonderment! It HAPPENS! For goodness sake!
I suppose I shouldn’t blame them. Journalists are told to do this, I believe. Assume most of the public are complete idiots. "Amazement Awe" being "Mutt" to "Shock Horror"’s "Jeff", so to speak.
Thrill ’em or horrify ’em, just so long as you get their adrenaline flowing. Infotainment, just like the News on TV. Don’t they think the races and the betting are exciting enough – a hundred times more so?<br>
(Edited by Grimes at 9:28 pm on Sep. 25, 2006)
Nobody wants to knock a Derby or Arc winner on the day, but I was under the impression it was generally considered that Hala Bek was very unlucky, and would have won had he not swerved across the track.
If so, why are you all discussing Sir Percy (withdrawn from the Arc today, I believe), instead of Hala Bek? <br>What chance might Hala Bek have had in the Arc? Is he going to be up there with the likes of Hurricane Run and Shirocco. Even that seems to me to be optimistic, though obviously not impossible with improvement.
If Tiger Woods is to make the kind of difference that the Amercians would like, he and they will have to realise that the team format is absolutely inimical to Tiger’s modus operandi.
His father taught him that as a man of non-Caucasian racial inheritance, visibly African- American, and because of the endemic racism in the Caucasian world, he was going to be an outsider, however ostensibly successful he was as an individual. And the more successful he became, the more focused and concentrated on his own game he would need to be; and this, of course, is a notable feature of his game. He plays in a kind of bubble of concentration.
So, if the Americans want to get anything like the best out of him, they’ll have to persuade him not to think of himself as part of the team, but regain some of the protective contempt for many of his fellow golfers, his compatriots, the shell he has had to grow down the years, to inure himself from hostile envy, debased in particular, by racism. Obviously I mean "contempt" in a limited way that has little or nothing to do with the kind of negative emotion normally attached to the word.
I believe he’s been joining in the spirit of the affair and really enjoying himself. Predictably, I think, he has underperformed for that reason.
Actually, I think it’s a useful exercise for seminarians. I spent a few months in a seminary, and suggested that each of us in turn should be sent to Coventry by the others for a week; even sitting alone for meals. It wasn’t taken up though, which I think is a shame. The desire for social approval that we all have, can be inimical to our integrity, as an individual.
(Edited by Grimes at 7:21 pm on Sep. 23, 2006)
You’re right, EC, I’m sorry. I’ve a lot of respect for you, and it was far from my intention to offend you. I was painting with a very broad brush, and you’re taking it that because I addressed the speed figure comment to you, I was criticising you on just about every score.
When the truth of the matter is that, I’m was really commenting on is the general impression I often get on here, that, instead of factoring into their own calculations the perceived shortcomings of the pro tipsters/experts they consult, and happily availing themselves of the positive contributions they make, many posters here seem to expect the sun, the moon and the stars to be put in their lap by them.
Well of course, tips that are paid for aren’t quite the same, but I was talking about all the free stuff provided by the likes of Nick Mordin, jockeys’, trainers’ and tipsters comments in the Racing Post, the Sporting Life, attheraces and so on.
it’s also true, regrettably, that I do tend to scan posts too hastily and consequently am likely to good miss points made and get a skewed view of them.
I have to admit though that, rightly or wrongly, I am bemused by the amount of attention paid to speed figures, which, as Artemis pointed out at the beginning should always be taken seriously as an indication of a horse’s ability and potential, but imho, frankly, it should be taken as a rough and ready guide, among many others to be imperatively taken into account also.
I used to think Ken Hussey’s speed figures in the Racing & Football Outlook was the last word, and any othe speed figures were likely to be pale imitations. But to my surprise, I found the RP ones to be at least as good.
Ironically, Nick Mordin’s sfs already seem to me to be more rough and ready than most, so I’m less interested in them than in his own enthusiastic comments on the horses and their abilities.
I hope this goes someway towards explaining my comments and you don’t continue to take it as a personal criticism of you. I accept that it was a clumsily conceived post, perhaps partly due to haste and inattention, and apologise unreservedly for whatever offence was caused to you or other posters.
I’ll try to be a bit more attentive as a reader and subtle as a writer, and avoid coming across as the sergeant breaking the news of the demise of the mother of one of his squad!
Apart from Geordieland, other interesting charges are Imperial Stride, who seems top class, and Fabre’s Reefscape, if he runs.
EC, what I mean is speed figures are not, not ever can be an exact science.
Making a profit from horse racing is never going to be easy enough to reduce  your methodology to a system, or to trust in speed figures as a kind of cure-all panacea. It’s an art, not a science. A bit like medicine, I believe.
Of course, there are many helpful indications of what to look for and how to stake, (and a range of those to best suit your own temperament)  but it can’t be reduced in the manner so many of you seem to  think.
I think by expecting too much from the experts, many  people find it easier to blame them than accept that they are confronted with a incredibly difficult challenge they themselves must master.
And that, in turn, leads to a cardinal error in every area, but very noticeably, racing: failing to respect experts (in a way, that often means failing to respect many other very admirable people, generally, who will have forgotten more about their field than we’ll ever know. They will often have a superior aptitude in that field, as well as superior knowledge and experience).
Of course there are experts who are dunderheads, who can’t see the wood for the trees. But with racing, it’s the quick and the dead, because the connecction with money and financial survival is so immediate.
How many times have I read on here that such and such trainers are dummies, when they would win many more times if they respected the trainers’ judgement, and watched out for their tips with gratitude. If a handicapper is entered for a Gp I, the chances the horse really is a decent sort to be handicapping. But nothing’s certain, only statistics.
I’ve had a similar thing with PaddyPower, Mountie, and my bets are small potatoes for any bookie. But they don’t like to see a strong punt going on, on a horse they fancy.
Spectait particularly interests me for the Cambs, EC, as I have a very suspicious mind about bookies’ prices and their ploys with regard to them.
I’ve noticed for a while now that though Spectait has been gerenally quoted at14/1 for some time now, it has never appeared on the short list put up on the RP card pages  by Hills, while others have. This, mark you,  when he had broken the track record at Kempton, I think, after being pulled up from some way out, so easily did he win.
Rightly or wrongly, that on top of Nick’s encomium sets the alarm bells ringing for me. It’s an old ruse of bookies, to rave about punts on cetain well-favoured horse while ignoring the real one they fear – until there’s a big punt on it nearer the day. I’ve just checked and Hills now go 12s on it – but on the RP card page, they’re not even quoting it.
Of course, I may have it completely wrong and there’s some other very good reason why, but why quote it on their own site?
But as regards Mordin, I’m baffled, amazed that on this site of all sites, so many of you seem to be blaming him for not spoon-feeding you.
True some of his stuff, I take with a pinchof salt, but two things always interest me a great deal:
Imho, he’s usually very informative about real quality horses, athough, you still have to use your own discrimination.
His speed figures are usually, though maybe  not always, indicative, but only on a secondary level. His rating of Rumplestiltskin seems  at considerable variance with the pretty high one given her for one race by the RPSF, and if he’s wrong, there’s a decent race in her at a ludicrously good price.
Many of his horses, (alas not all) goodish handicappers as well,  tend to win again and again. Lower quality horses, as has been noted here before, don’t seem to be his speciality.
I can’t wait to read his updated site, each Tuesday. I think I’ve phoned him just twice so far. The first time he put me on a winner, the second, I wasn’t interested. He told me nothing new, but did offer confirmation about one or two I fancied.
(Edited by Grimes at 8:48 pm on Sep. 21, 2006)
There were a few French mares that won the Arc a while back around the same decade, I think.
Allez France, and Three Troikas spring to mind, but I think there might have been one or two more, before the more recent fallow period.
(Edited by Grimes at 11:36 pm on Sep. 19, 2006)
Proc’ll show ’em the way home (I trust…)!
(Edited by Grimes at 11:12 pm on Sep. 19, 2006)
Good to read your confirmation, Steve. You couldn’t have put it more clearly. "Arsenal is a good team this year"!!!
Not that I think "this year" was necessary….
It will be interesting if the German horse, Lauro, (600/1 on Betfair) runs, not to speak of Tam Lin.
Watching the video of his performance in his third last race, over 1m2f, Tam Lin did something remarkable, Dick Mordin has commented on more than once – picking up and overtaking when the horses in front had got first run, were accelerating away.
I think he had to angle out, and lost ground at the very time when the two in front, the high class horses, Windsor Knot and Khyber Kim, began to take off for the finish.
Unperturbed, he regained his balance and began his own dash for the finish, catching up and pipping Windsor Knot at the finish – even seeming to be going away.
Still, they’d need to be more than a little special to beat the first two favs, wouldn’t they? And who knows what other dark horses might emerge?
(Edited by Grimes at 12:14 am on Sep. 18, 2006)
Meshasheer, I believe I’ve read that in English/English, it’s acceptable to use the plural when referring to the members of a single body, such as Godolphin, generically; while in American English it isn’t accepted.
A lot of interesting replies, though Sal’s seems full of instructive material for you to use as a template to refashion the article around.
A thought that struck me was that Godolphin could yet get a fair number of top Gp I wins before the end of the year. Iffraaj, Proclamation and Imperial Stride to name but 3, seem to me to be likely prospects.
The more formal tenour of this article elevates it to a potentially professional level. Well done. I can’t criticise your writing style here, as its clearer than mine. I don’t mean to damn you with faint praise by the way…!
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