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Added with Paddy’s 6 places 1/5 odds
Kruzhlinin 25-1
Blakemount 50-1
to go with earlier bets (fewer places) on
Fine Rightly (prob too much weight now)
Straidnahanna
Alvarado
All bets E/W
Should probably have waited for 6 places for them all, but impatience, greed (for better odds) and fear (of odds shortening) got the better of me.Added Alvarado 33-1 E/W; he has had an unspectacular season but was 2nd in this last year and 4th in the G.N. the two years before that, so solid form for one good spring run per year. There are 4 horses above him who have, or will have, run in the past week so I think he’ll get in.
He has an entry in the bet365 but I think he will go here.Good plan, I don’t think you can go too far wrong with Sue Smith’s horses and I’ve followed you with a small win bet on Blakemount at the 50s.
I really like Vintage Clouds too and think he will probably go here rather than the Novice’s handicap for which he is also entered. He seems quite handily weighted for both but expect will go for the bigger race given his owner’s desire to win Nationals and the fact that he has run very respectably in open company this season. My only concern would be that he’s probably had some pretty hard races as a result; his fall in the Ultima looked a bit tired rather than clumsy to me. I suppose if he’s as tough as his sire’s most famous offspring he’ll still give it socks; and perhaps the pace of the longer race (the 3 mile novice looks hot enough) will mean he doesn’t run the legs off himself.
Vyta du Roc not among 5 day decs – would have thought he had a decent chance and I was looking to back him for this but being kept fresh for Sandown I suppose.
I’ve added Straidnahanna 50-1 E/W; not sure he has the class to win but should jump and stay long enough to give me a run for my money.
Thanks to a timely reminder from BigG about backing horses that may run well in the Irish National today and see their odds dive, I’ve put some on Haymount for 2018.
I’ve added Foxrock E/W at 20s too so that’s him and Haymount for me. Good luck in running all.
Ah well a longshot is a longshot for a reason
Clontarf didn’t jump particularly well and just outclassed today I think. Back to the drawing board.
Well done to anyone who had winners today.
Thanks VtC and good luck with your bets today. Looking forward to watching some good racing.
I have two bets for Fairyhouse tomorrow.
1.45 Mullaghboy 66-1 E/W
Has no chance on the face of it, beaten a long way LTO when last of 3. But the ground was rubbish so he probably wasn’t given a hard time when beaten. Tongue tie on now, and a jockey on board whose recent mounts have outrun their odds. Worth a small E/W.4.35 Clontarf 12-1 win
Won LTO over course and about this distance. Scope to come on further.I nominate First Lieutenant for an involuntary Robert the Bruce award. Hasn’t won for 4 years, rated 31lb below his best and received 12lb and a 30 length beating from Foxrock in a hunter chase earlier this season. It would be the training performance of the century if Mouse could get the poor bugger to win.
have gone with Ballybolley in the opener on the basis the only time he has looked useful over obstacles was over course and distance
Nice pick Stilvi
Great post Jonibake, I know it was aimed at a more experienced punter as a “keep the faith” but also very useful to me as a total novice.
8-1 available with Paddys so I’ve topped up in addition to the 6-1 I’d already taken with bet365.
I like Fine Rightly too- he knows his way round this course, jumps, should stay OK and will be fresh for this. His mark might be a bit high but I suppose they wouldn’t be contemplating putting him on the boat if they thought he didn’t have a chance. He doesn’t have any other entries so I went ahead and took the 33-1 E/W and put him in an E/W double with Haymount 25-1 for the Irish National.
I might have another bet after the final decs/NRNB as there are too many who might swerve this for the bet365 and I’m not au fait enough with owner/trainer preferences etc to know what’s likely to go where.
