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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Drone

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  • in reply to: Derby 2006 #72067
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    Flat oval tracks or ‘across the flat’ at Newmarket may be deemed fairer tests of a horse as none can have the excuse of not acting on them but the contours and cambers of Epsom provide a great test of a young horse’s atheticism and balance, as well as jockeyship. The ‘complete’ racehorse should be able to adapt and show it’s form under a variety of circumstances in my opinion.

    I would agree that Epsom should be a one-off test for 3yos prior to the acid test of their mettle and ability taking on their elders in the all-aged ‘championships’ on conventional tracks later in the season; but the Derby and Oaks remain a  valuable education and above all a terrific spectacle.

    Cheltenham and Sandown have their idiosyncrasies but I doubt any NH follower would say that championship events shouldn’t be run there.

    Fine card at Kelso tomorrow Grasshopper; my heart is there; my head at Chester and York.

    in reply to: Personality Types #99799
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    I’m an INTJ too, which was no surprise.

    Introverted Intuitive Thinking Judging<br>Strength of the preferences %<br>89 38 100 44

    very expressed introvert<br>moderately expressed intuitive personality<br>very expressed thinking personality<br>moderately expressed judging personality

    Other INTJ’s include Hannibal, Donald Rumsfeld and Arnold Schwarzenegger…eek!

    An interesting little experiment actually. No idea what percentage of the population at large are INTJ but perhaps punters/racegoers attract an inordinate number of those with an introverted, intuitive, thinking, judging personality. Makes some sense to me.  

    in reply to: Favourite horses #71190
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    Dai Burchell’s Cartmel specialist Flahives First who’s been responsible for promoting the Whit and August meetings from enjoyable to great on several occasions.

    Sue Bradburne’s late-lamented Chergan who was a superb, straight jumper of fences and did me a favour at Wetherby and Donny on the two occasions I saw him in the flesh.

    Barmy old Robbo who ran his usual race at Kelso the other day – tailed off then staying on to be placed.

    Edit: Better add Walcot Lad as well cos he keeps getting the better of me; I’ll be opposing him again this aft!

    (Edited by Drone at 8:40 am on April 11, 2006)

    in reply to: World Cup 2006 #99259
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    Quote: from stevedvg on 8:29 pm on Mar. 30, 2006[br]

    That’s because England isn’t a real ****<br>ing country, you dolt!

    I can’t put "Scottish" on my passport, my friend from southern Germany can’t put "Bavarian" and the girl I know in Barcelona can’t put "Catalan".

    Why?

    Because Scotland, Bavaria and Catalunya aren’t countries.

    They’re just part of countries. And England’s the same.

    Agreed so that being the case:

    Does anyone know why England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are allowed to field separate teams in football and rugby internationals?

    Perhaps Bavaria and Catalonia should approach FIFA

    <br>Edit: Dunno why that’s appeared in italics

    (Edited by Drone at 10:05 pm on April 7, 2006)

    in reply to: Mark Coton #70922
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    The one time I saw Mark Coton interviewed on TV he struck me as having a cerebral, thoughtful, somewhat sensitive nature to his character and as such perhaps not best able to deal with the psychological roller-coaster that punting – and losing runs in particular –  inevitably entails. That’s not denigrating him in any way (such a nature is admirable in many ways) but a thick skin and ‘water off a duck’s back’ attitude to reversals are every bit as important to a punter as a proven ‘paper’ method of beating the books. Wagering your methods is the acid test.

    His books, and his stint on the RP, were excellent and innovative.

    Perhaps the Sportsman will dig him out.

    in reply to: Redcar Draw #70616
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    Miss Meggy’s race was a conditions (listed) event i.e at the weights a greater range of ratings/abilities on show, so in such races the draw is likely to be of less significance than in a handicap.

    Exaggerating to prove a point: If Dayjur was drawn 1 in a 5f conditions sprint at Bev up against 19 handicappers you’d still expect him to be an odds-on shot.

    in reply to: Professional punters #70500
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    What were his ‘rules’ Steve?

    Got a lot of time for Dave N, if I’d known he was on it would have been darjeeling and toast at 8 not 9

    in reply to: Course Characteristics #70696
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    The straight at Newcastle is on the rise but not so stiff as the likes of Beverley or Carlisle

    Chester is a stamina test because horses have little opportunity to change their lead leg, being on the near-fore most of the time

    On the round course at Beverley the stiff finish of the home straight is amelioratred to an extent by the downhill bend out of the back straight. Jockeys such as Darley who know the track well will rein back their horse for a breather from approx the 7f pole before the stamina test resumes on the turn into the home straight

    In 7f races it’s not unusual to see horses become unbalanced and go wide on the turn out of the back, paticularly those drawn badly (low) who go hell for leather from flag drop trying to secure a position near the inside rail. Hence the significant draw advantage horses drawn high have, especially habitual front runners.

    Don’t bother trying to form an idea of course configuration from two dimensional TV pictures; camera angles and height above the ground mislead.

    The RP’s course maps are useful.

    in reply to: Professional punters #70484
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    FSL

    The last thing I want is my tissue agreeing with the RP forecast. Just as I dislike Pricewise, Trading Post ‘pinching’ my value bets.

    Where didya get that pic of me:)

    in reply to: Professional punters #70480
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    Proven Punter – long term winner<br>Professional Punter – long term winner whose winnings account for all or the majority of income

    Not a lot of difference other than the Pro needs balls of steel, a hefty bank and an understanding family or preferably no family/dependents.

    The strategies of both are worthy of respect, it matters not whether you bet in ponies or monkees.

    There seemed to be a deal of surprise when Betfair let it be known that less than 1% of their clients made more than 15K per year; it didn’t surprise me at all, what would be far more representative is the percentage who make upto15K.

    No wish to be a ‘professional’ myself despite being in the fortunate position of being able to devote as much time as I wish to racing/punting; it would bore me as much as anything and in truth think my punting would suffer with having the added burden of knowing it’s outcome has to put bread on the table (or not). Stress is inversely proportional to success.

    Betlarge and Carvillshill have it spot on.

    My ‘rules’ also include:<br>Compiling a tissue to determine value (the golden rule)<br>Level stakes adjusted annually to 2% of available bank<br>Win singles only<br>Frequently betting two or more runners in a race, particularly against a weak fav who ‘makes the market'<br>Specialisation – knowing what type of race you’re good/bad at interpreting<br>Eyes open ears closed

    AS for the actual methods of race analysis employed by a succesful punter I doubt any one punter works in the same way as another. All that matters is the method that works for you: keep it close to yor chest.

    Finally always remember the learning curve is long and hard – twenty years in my case – though those lucky souls entering the fray now have never had it so good.

    (Edited by Drone at 11:20 pm on Mar. 23, 2006)

    in reply to: The Sportsman #70384
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    Rarely buy any racing papers but I’ll give The Sportsman a gander tomorrow. It’ll be added to my collection of first editions.

    Keen to see who they’ve recruited and just how much coverage Racing will be getting.

    in reply to: iris's gift ready for action #70176
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    Quote: from EC on 5:39 pm on Mar. 20,

    Good trainers make sure their horses can jump well enough to compete in races they take part in. They also show patience when it is clear a horse is not jumping as well it should be.

    <br>Venetia Williams, Misty Dancer, 3.40 Hereford. Just a shame he was short-headed

    in reply to: CHELTENHAM FATALITIES #69749
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    Quote: from ratcliff on 6:38 pm on Mar. 18, 2006[br]

    <br>Improvements to hurdles with padding or different styles should be acted upon , I notice there was an issue with the long distance amateurs novice chase – scrap it . Show that racing is listening to the critics and progressing <br>

    Brush hurdles do appeal as a move in the right direction, though I guess there may be cost concerns for the smaller tracks as well as portabilty problems e.g quick removal in order to stage bumpers.

    I regard hurdling as primarily a speed test with the hurdles being there to test a horse’s abilty to ‘leap’ rather than ‘jump’ and a test of the horse’s skill/balance in maintaining a fluent gallop on landing. That existing hurdles can trip a horse is counter-productive to the essence of what true hurdling should be about, in my view anyway.

    The amateur novice chase is something of an anomaly, much more so than the Foxhunters, and I certainly wouldn’t lose any sleep if it was scrapped. As someone mentined an open conditions event over the trip would be a nice idea – Ossmoses at Chelters would be quite a sight.

    (Edited by Drone at 11:22 pm on Mar. 19, 2006)

    in reply to: Only 17 runners declared for the Triumph #70233
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    Agree with the concerns raised over the quality of day 3.

    Personally I’d replace the 21f novice handicap chase with a Grade 1 21f novice chase as an alternative to the Arkle and RSA. As the blessed Henrietta pointed out before the Arkle such a race would have been ideal for Racing Demon; and for trainers not keen to give young staying chasers a hard – by reputation – race in the RSA.

    I’d name it the Mill House Novices’ Chase in deference to he who chased himself.

    This along with the aforementioned promotion of the Ryanair Chase to Grade 1 would then mean three ‘championship’ events to open day 3.

    Presumably the Ryanair was given only Grade 2 status in order to maintain the Melling Chase at Aintree as the premier event over the trip. So I guess there may be some problems with the NH ‘pattern’ should it be upgraded. Anyway here’s hoping.

    in reply to: Only 17 runners declared for the Triumph #70216
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    Four days suits me fine, just as extending the Royal Meeting to include the saturday suited.

    Six races on all days is preferable to seven, as was the case on the last two days previously.

    Upgrading the Ryanair to Grade 1 would be a good move imo.

    All I miss about the three day fixture is the run of four succesive chases on the thursday – Gold Cup, Foxhunters, Grand Annual, Cathcart; nirvana.

    in reply to: CHELTENHAM FATALITIES #69739
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    <br>   As for the RSPCA saying that they’ll have to have a look at this there is no-one on Earth less qualified to comment. <br>

    David Muir, the RSPCA’s equine consultant is one of racing’s most valuable allies;  a thoughtful, dignified man not prone to extreme views; a man who has no wish to see NH banned but realises the welfare of the horse is paramount; a man who realises that working with the JC/BHB, not against it, is in the best interest of all parties. Racing alienates him at it’s peril.

    Whenever I read hot-headed prose like that in the first three paragraphs of your post I’m always reminded of a cornered, frightened animal whose only form of defence is attack..

    For those who love racing and the noble horse in equal measure a period of reflection and a spot of navel-gazing wouldn’t go amiss along with a realisation that we do indeed have a duty to answer the critics, both the moderate and more extreme elements. Through action not words.

    in reply to: Cheltenham 2006 …how was it for u? #69958
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    Poor week punting: eight bets, one winner Fondmort at 3.66/1, three bets elsewhere all losers.

    Enjoyed the Festival as ever, though inevitably marred by the fatalities of course. Roll on Aintree and Punchestown.

    Monet’s Garden the horse I’d single out. Another grey son of Roselier destined for great things over 3+miles.

    The changing of the guard: Ta very much Moscow Flyer and Baracouda, two horses genuinely deserving of that much over-used epithet ‘great’. As Ms. Hislop succinctly put it "you’ve enriched my life".

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