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I agree that
Jass
and
Gidam Gidam
have claims. However, Bay Cherry has done nothing but improve and if he can handle the distance is the one for me!
Knighton Combe
may be out of his depth and I am sure
Stagecoach Diamond
will keep plugging on and may yet steal a place!
Doctor David
may well take some beating and the horse that may well do it is
Oiseau Du Nuit
. Uber competitive race though – so many have claims.
Also,
Santa’s Son
is potentially well weighted and you can ignore the last run as it was over 2m4f – even though he’s won over 2m3f, I reckon this is his best distance. 28/1 currently!
Ah, just found definition:
When a person claims to be on the good side of a bet or prediction after the result without proving any evidence before or during the event.
See what you mean but I just thought this was a debating forum and was simply asking what people thought of my selections. not sure I’ll bother anymore…..
Plus, I posted this before 8am this morning.
I think Katchit might just surprise everyone today in the Cleeve. I hope he wins! I also think Mr Thriller and Lough Derg may run good races – a lot of the others have too many question marks over them for me!
Wolverhampton 1850
Quick Release and Stand Guard should fight this out but a Dark Horse is definitely Red Somerset
Kempton 1615 today – I know it is a Classified Claiming Race but surely Ramamara will win this quite cosily. Another one that jumps out is Leading Edge in the 1330 Fillies’ Handicap at Wolverhampton.
Trends really do work. They really do. Since the Grand National of 2009 (where I did have Mon Mome on my long-list based on trends – honest
) I have only lost on ONE race that I have trend analysed (usually big field handicaps and definitely all of the Satellite Nationals since the big one) – and that was in the Sussex National (but I did have Master Overseer using my own system).Trends really pay at Cheltenham – analysing each race for the type of horse that has won it before, including its route there and races it has already participated in did pick the first 13 winners at the 2009 Festival.
I’m all for Trends!
Southwell tomorrow:
If you are only wanting one bet then it has to be on Johnnie Skull in the 1450. I reckon will win by 5L to Bel Cantor…..
In terms of a (risky) lay – Bowmaker in the 1550
I’m certainly with you on the Satellite Nationals grayonscolumn. I think they are great races. I thought Master Overseer would certainly place in the Sussex National but he did very well to win!
I look at each Satellite National separately and kinda knew Tarquinius would not win as he was French bred and they have a terrible record in the race (compare this to The Southern National at Fontwell where the French breds romp it and guess what – Peut Etre Sivola and L’Aventure got a 1-2 this year)
However, that Mordin article sounds good and I’ll be keeping an eye out for the youngsters tackling longer distances in future handicaps so thanks!
And Tarquinius may well buck the trend of French Breds running stinkers in the race. It is very wide open and I’m shocked to see Master Overseer so skinny. Who is betting on him?
I know what you mean crizzy – you can make a case for a fair few of these and it’ll be last horse standing as they say! Let’s hope it is on
Will be a grand race it is happens!OK Crizzy – repeat after me – he’s carrying 11stone7, he’s carrying 11stone7……
Does that help?
I have to admit Irish Stamp that I am intrigued by how well Radetsky March may run tomorrow. I’ll keep a watching brief and you are right he did well in his last race and the form is working out well. However, seven year olds historically haven’t done well since Sad Mad Bad won the first running of this event way back in 2001.
I know, let’s back him now for the 2011 Sussex National?
Right, what can a trends analysis tell us? Well, the first thing is that quite a few fit the mould of previous winners. Grrr.
Notabotheronme fits all the trends bar one (he hasn’t won in his previous three starts).
Enroblim Trop is trained by Colin Tizzard who does have a great record in the race but fails on two trends: too much weight and still a relative newcomer to chasing.
Temoin does well but is carrying too much weight and his BHA rating is too high.
Kawagino is also carrying too much weight and did not run in a Class 2 or 3 even prior to this event (strong trend).
Whatever Next has weight issues too and hasn’t won any of its last three starts.
Shaka’s Pearl is usually held-up which is not good in this race and is not experienced enough over fences.
Now, the thing is, this renewal is classier than previous events and the handicap is quite compressed at the top so the trend about weight is a little big dodgy. If we ignore that trend then Enroblim Trop, Temoin, Kawagino and Notabotheronme should hit your shortlist!
If you want a copy of the full trends sheet then just contact me on link below. I’ll e-mail it to you no problems.
) I have only lost on ONE race that I have trend analysed (usually big field handicaps and definitely all of the Satellite Nationals since the big one) – and that was in the Sussex National (but I did have Master Overseer using my own system).