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Having just looked at this site for the first time, i find it astounding that anyone genuinely thinks there is a "system" that can consistently find
winners at horseracing! The one and only way of consistently making a
profit is the fact that every year is a repeat cycle of events from the previous year! ie Cheltenham is in march,the 2000gns is run over 1m at Newmarket in May, the Derby is at Epsom in june and its over 11/2m etc
etc just like night follows day! After years of study, a picture is formed,
certain trainers target certain races, certain races have a form line to future
races etc.This picture has a pattern to it ie The Racing post trophy winner
succeeding in the following years Derby! The pattern is then divided into what i like to describe as a 1000 piece jigsaw! Every year its broken up
and the task is to put it all back together again,using the current crop of horses available! Thats the skilful bit, being able to identify the right horse for the right race! if i use the above race as an example, in the last 10yrs
to a 1pt stake if you just bet the winner blind for the Derby, you would have laid out 10pts and your return would show a 24 pt profit, 01, High
Chaparal 10/1, 04, Motivator 12/1 and 06, Authorized 12/1! Next years 10/1 Derby fav also won the racing post trophy, who knows if he can do
it? The stats support him and he fits into the pattern,we shall see! Thats
the one and only system i have ever used, its called Ante-post!to a 1pt stake if you just bet the winner blind for the Derby, you would have laid out 10pts and your return would show a 24 pt profit
Does that mean you go into a bookie and write on the betting slip:-
3:45 Epsom £1 to win on the winner
Sorry could not resist that
I appreciate what you’re saying about putting the thousand piece jigsaw back together. But like most of us on here, I imagine, we always seem to lose that final piece of the jigsaw.
I would also imagine that using your system, assuming the bookies have cottoned-on to those patterns, that this will be reflected in the odds of said horses. Therefore, would it not represent better value to look outside of the box?to a 1pt stake if you just bet the winner blind for the Derby, you would have laid out 10pts and your return would show a 24 pt profit
Does that mean you go into a bookie and write on the betting slip:-
3:45 Epsom £1 to win on the winner
Sorry could not resist that
EXCELLENT DOLUS
i have worded it a bit like that now you mention it,
my point really is that eg should a sprinter run dissapointingly in this seasons "Cammidge" at Doncaster, some people would disregard it for future races, where in fact there is a long season full of opportunitys for
a sprinter, its a case of identifying the route you think that horse can progress down and is the same for most horses in that grade! Group horses, are once they have achieved a level of form, are easier to assess, its identifying there ideal trip which can reap rewards! One of my favourite
Ante-post bets was on "Danehill", he ran a super race in the 2000gns finishing 3rd behind "Nashwan" i had actually backed the 2nd "Exbourne"
at 33/1 for the race, but to my mind "Danehill" was a sprinter, any way he ran next in the Irish 2000 and finished 4th, so i backed him at 10/1 for the "Cork and orrery" at Royal ascot which if i remember correctly he won
easily at 5/4fav with W Carson redeeming himself for beating me on "Nashwan" i saw the ideal opportunity for this horses natural target
early on so i stuck with my instinct! see what i mean about the pattern!
its the same evey year! I feel just the same about "Mastercraftsman"
winning this years 2000gns, even though "Rip Van Winkle" his stable
companion is favourite! I backed "Henrythenavigator" at 25/1 20/1 and 16/1 last year even though "Jupitor Pluvious" was the so called stable number 1 purely on his 2yo form with "New Approach" it was clear he hated soft ground and Aidan stayed patient with him. Stick with your opinion and listen to nobody its all there in the form book, whats been achieved on the course!I appreciate what you’re saying about putting the thousand piece jigsaw back together. But like most of us on here, I imagine, we always seem to lose that final piece of the jigsaw.
I would also imagine that using your system, assuming the bookies have cottoned-on to those patterns, that this will be reflected in the odds of said horses. Therefore, would it not represent better value to look outside of the box?KEN,
I"m not the most articulate on here, so its very difficult trying to explain, that what i am trying to portray is not a system, but a pattern
that repeats itself every year and my analogy of a jigsaw is my simple way of explaining myself, but to answer your question i think all the pieces
are in the box already! Unless an unraced 3yo should win the 2000 gns!
eg if for example "Evasive" wins the 2000gns this year then that part of my "Jigsaw" is broken because he in my opinion he"s got no chance,
so i have to move on to my next part of my Neverending puzzle, perhaps
the 1000gns and so on throughout the season! Quality races only mind!Basically GW you’re talking about TRENDS!
Basically Cormack its only taken me 1000 words to describe a Trend!
your right in that the pattern i keep harping on about has many threads
of Trend running through it, eg Racing post trophy/Derby connection, but
this pattern is more "Egyptian cotton" than "Nylon" and the 400 threads
per sq inch i talk about are far more finely created and colourful with an eye
for detail like a Diamond cutter! Johnny Francomes got the eye! he also had the pleasure of the feel of a horse, something i will never have the benefit of, watching races, taking notes, studying form, breeding for 2yo"s
is also important, basically effort and skill! bit more than making "Jam Tarts"!GWILSON77: You do yourself an injustice suggesting you are not as articulate as some on here. You have a way with words that conjures up the imagination. In fact your description of 400 threads per square inch made be recall a hard time I had in a Moroccan bazaar trying to escape the clutches of a keen salesman in a carpet shop. In fact, the more I think about it, I wonder if there is more chance of finding a ‘flying carpet’ than there is of getting any of these systems, trends or patterns to work.
GW – I don’t think JF is any kind of expert on trends but it is something I would like to spend some more time on myself as I think it is a potentially lucrative avenue (as are most of the unexplored nooks and crannies where small winner-finding clues can be found).
I’d take issue with your claim in your first post that it is teh ‘only’ way of profit seeking, plenty make profits by good old fashioned form study but you are right in asserting it’s a potentially useful tool.
As for the Racing Post Trophy. The race has a chequered history of throwing up classic candidates but, yes, it’s done well of late and it could be that trainers have recently recognised it’s potential as a nice step in the development of their potential Derby candidates. The late Phil Bull would certainly have revelled in the exploits of some of the recent winners.
Trends can help a bit, but a bit is only part of the bridle.
GWilson, you look at the last 10 years (only 10 bets) of the Racing Post as if this proves your theory. How many form gamblers have not made a profit on a particular ten race period? That they themselves can pick out.
Trends are a minute part of profit making, something many punters take too much notice of. If they do not have time or can’t be bothered to study form.
It also takes no notice of value, seemingly oblivious to the reality that bookmakers can see these trends too and alter their prices accordingly.
Mark
Value Is EverythingJohn Francome might know about conformation (emphasise might). But study form?
The Racing Post Trophy is the best staying race for two year olds, which usually produces the best staying performance by a two year old. So it is no surprise they sometimes go on to win the Derby. You could say it is form working out well.
Mark
Value Is Everything
- Total Posts 17716
Trends can help a bit, but a bit is only part of the bridle.
GWilson, you look at the last 10 years (only 10 bets) of the Racing Post as if this proves your theory. How many form gamblers have not made a profit on a particular ten race period? That they themselves can pick out.
Trends are a minute part of profit making, something many punters take too much notice of. If they do not have time or can’t be bothered to study form.
It also takes no notice of value, seemingly oblivious to the reality that bookmakers can see these trends too and alter their prices accordingly.
Mark
Au contraire, GT.
GNW has shown that the best high-level test of a 2yo’s stamina can make a profit – when applied to similar 3yo races; regardless of ‘value’.
Without even looking, I’d bet that the same applys to the St Leger.
Value isn’t everything!It is still value.
If there is a particular race, or a set of circumstances, that points to the winner of the St Leger for example, then that is still value, because the horse is available at a bigger price than it should be.
- Total Posts 17716
Gerald
Then why haven’t bookmakers "altered their price accordingly"?
Value is a perception before the race, and everyone’s is different – it only becomes fact after it.wilson
Did not my freind Mark not make over 20k last year from the most simplest of methods?
Every bet was recorded on this site win or lose and all at s.p.
The ew doubles on 2nd favs in 8 runner races has made a profit for years.
You will never see any bookmaker promote that bet.Trends can help a bit, but a bit is only part of the bridle.
GWilson, you look at the last 10 years (only 10 bets) of the Racing Post as if this proves your theory. How many form gamblers have not made a profit on a particular ten race period? That they themselves can pick out.
Trends are a minute part of profit making, something many punters take too much notice of. If they do not have time or can’t be bothered to study form.
It also takes no notice of value, seemingly oblivious to the reality that bookmakers can see these trends too and alter their prices accordingly.
Mark
Au contraire, GT.
GNW has shown that the best high-level test of a 2yo’s stamina can make a profit – when applied to similar 3yo races; regardless of ‘value’.
Without even looking, I’d bet that the same applys to the St Leger.
Value isn’t everything!Regardless of Value?
Au contraire, RH.
As I explained, 2 year old stamina races will have a good deal of influence on 3 year old stamina races. It’s a form thing.
But value still matters.
Had High Chapperal, Motivator and Authorized all been 2/1, then 3 winners in 10 bets would not be good enough. A stake of 10 points with a return of only 9 points.Mark
Value Is Everything
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