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I’ve just seen the entry list for The Sussex National and was wondering what other people fancied.
I was at Fontwell when Its A Classic ran a superb race and if it comes up heavy he’ll be there or thereabouts (and been allocated 9-13 as well – he had 11-11 that day but it was a Class5 event which is my only worry). He’ll need a couple to drop out to get in.
Avoid the French-bred animals as their total record in the race is:
24UUPPPPPPPPP
so it’ll be a no to Stolen Moments and Tarquinius if they line up!!
I’ll post more about Trends closer to the time…..
I’d have thought that as it is a marathon race for mediocre horses in the middle of winter then most of the runners would end up with the form figure P, and not just the French-bred ones.
The only French-bred amongst the entries is a Venetia that came second last time. Are you sure you want to chuck it?
Edit: Gosh, I missed the two French-breds you mentioned, and you missed mine! Must be time for bed!
Went to bed, and then got up again when I remembered Mon Mome had won a race at Plumpton, but it wasn’t this one.
Every single French-bred that Pulled Up was carrying more than 11 stone.
Have got it down to 6.
Chuck everything carrying more than 11 st.
Chuck everything aged 10 or more (still too many Novices and 2nd season chasers shooting through the ranks at this time of year)
Chuck everything that hasn’t run recently.
Chuck everything that isn’t in form.Left with
Emroblin Trop
Master Overseer
Tarquinius
Pipo De Re
Its A Classic
HelmFeet up until Friday lunchtime.
Oops yeah missed Pipo De Re. Will type up my trends later this week and post on here to see if we can predict the winner of it. There are certain Nationals where French-breds do well and some where they don’t. This is one where runners-to-winners (or placed) is not a patch on the Irish breds.
Nice to see Its A Classic on your list!
Just seen that Its A Classic has been declared to Warwick tomorrow!! Not fair. I’ll have to re-assess the runners now.
Will be going on Sunday providing it’s on – been raining all day down here (about 2 miles from Plumpton racecourse) so must be odds-on to be abandonned.
Oh well, I was finding it fun analysing a race on just 3 years’ worth of trends!
The Alners are featured in Raceform Update this week, and reckon Present M’Lud is rated a stone too high.
Even though the weather may claim this race, I’ll post a Trends Analysis here later today…..
Bet365 are up on the big one
4/1 Master Overseer
5/1 Tarquinius
7/1 Pipo De Re
8/1 Enroblim Top
8/1 Present M’Lord
10/1 Radetsky march
10/1 Kawagino
12/1 Shakas Pearl
14/1 Petite Margot
14/1 Temoin
16/1 Whatever Next
16/1 Notabotheronme
18/1 Teeming RainRight, what can a trends analysis tell us? Well, the first thing is that quite a few fit the mould of previous winners. Grrr.
Notabotheronme fits all the trends bar one (he hasn’t won in his previous three starts).
Enroblim Trop is trained by Colin Tizzard who does have a great record in the race but fails on two trends: too much weight and still a relative newcomer to chasing.
Temoin does well but is carrying too much weight and his BHA rating is too high.
Kawagino is also carrying too much weight and did not run in a Class 2 or 3 even prior to this event (strong trend).
Whatever Next has weight issues too and hasn’t won any of its last three starts.
Shaka’s Pearl is usually held-up which is not good in this race and is not experienced enough over fences.
Now, the thing is, this renewal is classier than previous events and the handicap is quite compressed at the top so the trend about weight is a little big dodgy. If we ignore that trend then Enroblim Trop, Temoin, Kawagino and Notabotheronme should hit your shortlist!
If you want a copy of the full trends sheet then just contact me on link below. I’ll e-mail it to you no problems.
Really surprised to see Kawagino in this, but looking at his record he has contested chases over the years and had a little taster of Plumpton a few weeks ago. An admirable horse who is so consistent but gets overlooked because he usually uns his heart out for a place. Form of the Mullins horses a bit of a worry but I’d never rule him out.
Thanks for that Craig – interesting reading how the trends figure the race will finish up. Funnily enough the horse I fancy isn’t even mentioned in your post – Radetsky March.
He finished runner-up on his latest start to Welsh National favourite Le Beau Bai – a distant second that day he’s been dropped five pounds and now runs off a career low of 121 (with PJ Tolman taking off 7lbs as he did at Chepstow). This might not look overly generous on paper but the fourth that day Sherwoods Folly won at Cheltenham yesterday and the third (Nicto De Beauchene) has run well again since whilst the fifth had won his previous start. Radetsky March numbers only one victory to his name in a brief career so far, that coming at Fontwell which is a quirky track which often suits course specialists (in many ways a lot like Plumpton) whilst his two best runs have come on "soft" (his Plumpton win) and "heavy" (last time out). The ground tomorrow will be very testing and I expect him to run a big race at 10/1.
I have to admit Irish Stamp that I am intrigued by how well Radetsky March may run tomorrow. I’ll keep a watching brief and you are right he did well in his last race and the form is working out well. However, seven year olds historically haven’t done well since Sad Mad Bad won the first running of this event way back in 2001.
I know, let’s back him now for the 2011 Sussex National?
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