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I think Graham Lee said yesterday that Blue Bajan is running in the novice hurdle on the same card.
For me, it was shame he went hurdling. I was looking forward to him racing on the AW at Lingfield this winter.
I’m thinking the Christmas Hurdle could end up with a just a few runners. I’m sure Harchibald will be really primed for that race, what with it being the second leg of WBX triple crown bonus. If he does win, would the connections be allowed trade or hedge in the run up to the Cheltenham. It would seem the logical thing to do ?
On Boxing Day there are not normally any trains from Waterloo to Kempton Park or Sunbury. The London Underground & Buses do run a pretty good service though.
In the past I’ve gone on the Piccadilly line to either Hatton Cross or Hounslow East, walk to Hounslow bus station & depending on time of day it’s a one or two short bus journeys from there. Never tried the Richmond route that Pru mentioned, but if it’s on the tube & buses it will be fine. You do need to allow time though, as the bus bit at the end can be slow. Give yourself two hours from central London to the racecourse.
Would also suggest you get an all-zone one-day travelcard or an Oyster card, as underground journeys & short hops on buses cost silly money if you try to pay for them with cash!
With the trainers record in the race, Futon jumps out at me. His previous winners of this didn’t all come in to the race with stacks of winning form either.
I would have expected Nicky Mackay to be riding though, any idea why’s he on the Gerald Butler horse & Eddie Ahern (who doesn’t have much of a record for Cumani) is on Futon ?
I think critisism of Hughes over the Day Flight ride is maybe a bit harsh. We know roughly how RH is going to ride these type of horses before they start. Maybe on this occasion, that hold up style on a horse making its seasonal debut, up against a decent & race-fit M.Johnson frontrunner was never going to suit.
You can argue he should have been closer to the pace, but it’s not the way he rides. The winner & it’s connections deserve the credit for grinding out the win from the front.
Sailing Shoes,
You may well be right on this one, I know no more than you, it’s all about interpretation. My experiences are similar to those of Rory though.
Take the previous race Royal Jet was in at Lingfield. Ridden by J.Egan again, a stronger looking race, with six runners. RJ was backed near the off from something like 13/2 into 4/1. Trust me, this horse was never going to get beat that day, & Egan made sure of it. (not that I knew anything)
I can think of dozens of similar examples to yesterday, but I’d better not dig myself too deep a hole here.
It may be a trainer thing as well ?
The trouble in the early stages & middle part of RJ’s race was really about luck, or the lack of it, in running. No direct fault of J.Egan, except that you would hope a professional jockey would be able to avoid trouble in a slow run race over 12f with five runners.
The issue for me was when they turned for home. Royal Jet & J.Egan were trying hard on the home turn. The commentator said RJ was interfered with early in the straight, it looked a bit tight to me, but imo at that stage, the horse or the jockey were not putting it all in for some reason.
A head on replay may show I’m being a bit harsh, but it didn’t look good coming up the straight, RJ had something left, he finished fairly well in the last 100 yards.
Hi Sailing Shoes,
I think John Egan is a really good rider, but similar to certain others, there’s always going to be a question mark over him, & imo rightly so.
Rather than watch the race video from yesterday. Try & find the clip of John Egan and Kieran Fallon talking to an undercover reporter posing as an Arab Sheikh. Maybe make a judgement about the ride after seeing that.
I didn’t back anything, but fwiw I thought Kames Park had a decent enough chance anyway. The race was always likely to be a repeat of last weeks one, where KP just quicked up really well off a slow place.
Can understand the people who backed Royal Jet being unhappy.
I’m struggling to select anything with confidence in the big races at Lingfield, they look very difficult. I’m going to stick with Blue Bajan, but if it gets tactical, almost anything could win.
Re how the pace can make the difference, using Alfie Flits as a case study. The only time AF has run over 10f was at Sandown on g/f ground, he finished 3rd, carried 9-08, & his time was around 2m10s. When Cusoon broke the Lingfield course record, he carried 9-00, & his time was 2m01.7s.
Now I know this does not compare like-for-like at all, with Sandown being much stiffer, but it gives you an indication of how fast they can go at Lingfield. In a fast race, AF would have to run 9.3+ seconds faster to beat the likes of Cusoon & Blue Bajan. I think it would have been a fair bet to bet against AF being physically capable of going that quick?
Sadly, this all becomes irrelevent when the pace of the race is not very strong. It’s down to who has the best turn of foot & who gets the best run.
The outcome of this is going to to be totally dependant on how much pace there is in the race. Out of the 15 entries, Luberon looks to be the only natural front runner. If he doesn’t run, or doesn’t set a decent pace, it could turn into a battle of the hold up horses, with all manner of potential traffic problems.
If there is a modest or slow pace, literally anything could happen, which would be a shame. You could see the likes of Sri Diamond, Illustrious Blue, Cimyla, and even Grand Passion and Mighty, queing up to challange, & most of those have got a nice enogh turn of foot to quicken up off a slowish pace & win this.
I dearly hope it’s a true run race, that way the horses who can run fast & have a that bit of class will rise to the top. Imo Blue Bajan is the second fastest horse ever over this C+D, & has a lovely turn of foot. He seemed a bit unfortunate against Cusoon last time, & if the reports that he has come on for that are true, he should win the race, providing it’s run at a fast pace & he gets a reasonable passage!
(I’m not ignoring Gentleman’s Deal & Alfie Flits btw. I just find it very difficult to weigh up how they will perform at Lingfield, having never run there before. They could really take to the surface, especially GD, but I’ll stick with proven Lingfield form)
If anyone is interested, my speed ratings for horses who are in the Winter Derby, & has previously raced over the 10f course at Lingfield are:
240 Cusoon, 239+ Blue Bajan, 233 Cimyla, 231 Sri Diamond, 229+ Mighty, 225 Grand Passion, 224 Speedy Sam, 220 Red Spell, 214 Boo, 202 Orchard Supreme.
I think it’s an interesting comment re the relative merits of the going on the fresh/old ground.
It’s started me on an old bugbear of mine, slightly off topic, but is connected with the running rails.
When a running rail is moved out like this to protect a strip of ground, what about the extra distance all those horses have had to run?  Sure, in the context of a specific race it doesn’t make much difference (unless you’re on a doubtful stayer). For time comparison purposes though, it makes turf comparisions even more unreliable than they already are.
I think it would be a pretty safe bet to say that the starts are not reposistioned, or courses remeasured, when this type of thing goes on. In fairness to Cheltenham, it happens all over the country (on flat courses as well where you can argue the speed comparisons are more crucial).
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FSL,
For the first time in ages the handicapper has begun to give Take the Stand a chance in big races like this (down another 5lb today), but he does seem really out of form at the moment, & age is not on his side either.
I always had in my mind that he was a better horse on decent ground. If he can find a bit of form, maybe he could run well off this sort of mark in the Spring at Aintree or Ayr, or even in one of the big summer chases.
I’m coming to similar conclusions to Boye & Grimes on this one. With it being such a vaulable race, I’m not sure current form is the only deciding factor. Imo it’s more important to be on one that has been laid out for either this race, or something similar around this time.
All three Irish horses seem likely candidates, it’s just which one? GVA Ireland is the obvious one, having won the race last year, he’s sure to run well again. My gut feeling is that Jacquouille & Newbay Prop are possibly better horses & are better treated at the weights.
I’ll go with Newbay Prop, as he is the more unexposed & looks certain to see out the trip, & it’s Cheltenham week & we haven’t had a Tony Martin gamble yet!
Well done, Alan
He looked very good in the race yesterday, & is obviously very well in himself. Long may it continue.
It really is a good card today, personally I much prefer Lingfield, but there’s only a fortnight to wait for their big AW day!
In the Listed race, I can see Party Boss trying to make all. I’d love him to win, but I’m scared of Jack Sullivan even over a sharp trip. If he is close to his best, imo JS will be too good for these. Head says no bet, heart says back Party Boss to make all.
I’ll be kicking myself if My Paris wins the Lincoln trial. I fancy him, he’s well weighted, & ran OK when favourite for this last year off an 8lb higher mark. I’ve been put off him by K.Ryan saying he’s quite not match fit, & I’m guessing they don’t want him to get a penalty for the Lincoln either. Very Wise probably needs a penalty to get in the Lincoln, so I guess he’ll be trying, so I’ll stick with him.
Imo Maltese Falcon would never have lasted home over 6f here, so in a way it’s a shame he’s a non runner (if that makes any sense). I’ll go with Ajigalo, who’s back to down to 6f & has come down in the handicap a little.
I think Alan’s horse Salute is running in the last, so good luck to the owners for later. He won well last time, but he’s up 10lb last two wins & has been off for a couple of months, instinct says he may be up against it. Would think he’d get an easier oppourtunity as the season goes on. Nawamees has a terrible win record but I quite liked the look of him. You could see Ryan Moore having a few winners today.
I was wanting to find something to take on Ektimaal with in the 2.55, but couldn’t find anything. Gifted Gamble probably has the ability, but he’s not one to have complete faith in. So Ektimaal to complete a four timer.
Not sure about the other races. Will be interested to see Whodunit run in the first maiden. He’s not a betting proposition, but I’m sure he must be better than his Lingfield run, he quite well bred.
Thank you for your frank & slightly, er, patronising reply. I’m not sure if I believed it the first time! You will have to forgive me, I’m not up with all the racing industry ways ;)
I stand by my comments, surley producing shows & returns in different ways is, inconsistant, produces a lack of continuity, as well as being confusing & potentially misleading for punters following the market ?
I’m actually quite shocked by it.
The shows are sent by a separate team of people monitoring a different group of bookies and not using the same method to calculate the price.
<br>Are we saying that the people who send the shows are using different criteria & sources to those who return the SP’s??
If that’s the case no wonder the SP returns are sometimes unpredicatable. I was under the impression that betting shows from a course were complied in the same way as SP’s, if they are not, it’s surely could be very misleading to the punter.
