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A day after Cheltenham and we have the Midlands National anyone got a strong fancy ? <br>For me it’s a 5 horse race Nil Desperandum, Laventure, Ladalko, Baron Windrush and G V A Ireland. But with Nil Desperandum’s main aim being the Grand National i can’t see him being given to tougher race with us being 3 weeks away from the race. G V A Ireland hasn’t been in the best of form of late so for me thats him ruled out and Laventure has on and off days so it is hard to back although if on a going day it could be a danger , Ladalko has to give quite a bit of weight to horses lower down in the handicap and has a few jumping problems with a clear round i can see him in the top 3 but for me Baron Windrush looks a clear winner he runs off a good weight and returned to form last time out when winning easily he looks great value @ 16/1. ( I could be wrong tho :biggrin:)
Just looked at this now and if Nil Desperandum runs as well as it did last time it will win. Top class e/w bet in my opinion and its going on my 4PP competition picks!
you may have overlooked one flatseason keepatem trained by jj went through the race use vdw and when trained in ireland won 68k race on boxing day two years ago making it the class horse of 10 st 1lb ran well lto over 4m
Class tells, Jacquouille is 10 lbs better off for 4 lengths with him, than he was in that race. Over 4 miles plus, I reckon that could count, assuming he stands up.
its the way he seems to have been placed[keepatem] ran at track two races ago ran well at distance lto cant take jaqouille as his vdw class rating is only 80 while keepatem is the top rated at 371 its also dropping 12 lbs in weight and ran not to long ago so we will see good luck
Newbay Prop is not the favourite for no good reason.
Very lightly-raced up-and-coming chaser who landed a good prize at Fairyhouse in December and was well fancied for the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, but didn’t complete (had it to do at the time).
Had a hurdles spin to prepare for this subsequently, and is trained by Tony Martin, who can get them ready.
Looks the answer to me.<br>
I’m coming to similar conclusions to Boye & Grimes on this one. With it being such a vaulable race, I’m not sure current form is the only deciding factor. Imo it’s more important to be on one that has been laid out for either this race, or something similar around this time.
All three Irish horses seem likely candidates, it’s just which one? GVA Ireland is the obvious one, having won the race last year, he’s sure to run well again. My gut feeling is that Jacquouille & Newbay Prop are possibly better horses & are better treated at the weights.
I’ll go with Newbay Prop, as he is the more unexposed & looks certain to see out the trip, & it’s Cheltenham week & we haven’t had a Tony Martin gamble yet!
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Would have to go along with Newbay Prop in this.<br>Tidy winner over 3m 5f, then ran well when 9lbs wrong in the weights over probably an inadequate trip.<br>A couple of months off, then a freshener over hurdles to get him fit for this makes the 7/1 look well worth chancing.
GVA Ireland wont like the going. He neads it Heavy. Ladalko has a great chance in this, and I’d expect Nil Des to be in the first 3 also.
I’m keen on Jaunty Times for this. He split Wee Robbie and According To John in the Reynoldstown last month and both franked the form somewhat at the Festival. 7 year olds have a good record in this race (3 winners from only 10 runners. 11 stone is more than is usually carried by the winner of this race, but he’s only had 5 starts over fences and could still be improving.
Does anyone think Take The Stand could run a big race if it wanted to at 50/1? Seems to have gone totally off the boil but this would seem to his sort of conditions.
Nil Desperandum will look something of a good thing from a handicapping point of view for Aintree should he win today as he’ll race from a 9 lb lower mark in the National than today.
I like Keepatem. He’s well handicapped on the best of his form and ran a cracker at Kelso to split a couple of promising stayers there. Low weights have a good record in this and I can see him going well.
FSL,
For the first time in ages the handicapper has begun to give Take the Stand a chance in big races like this (down another 5lb today), but he does seem really out of form at the moment, & age is not on his side either.
I always had in my mind that he was a better horse on decent ground. If he can find a bit of form, maybe he could run well off this sort of mark in the Spring at Aintree or Ayr, or even in one of the big summer chases.
I like Keepatem, Jaquouille and Newbay Prop.  My only concern about Keepatem is whether this race has come a little too quickly after his fine effort at Kelso in heavy ground.  The two Irish raiders look as if they’ve been laid out for the race and therefore of their low weights, they’re my selections.
Take The Stand has looked out of love with the game recently, which is a shame as he’s a grand old horse.  If anywhere near to his best, 50/1 is massive value.  But the way he’s ran this season, he can’t inspire much confidence.
Nap of the day at Uttoxeter is My Immortal.  He’s a class above these and if the longer trip suits i expect him to win cosily.
(Edited by Anzum at 11:13 am on Mar. 17, 2007)
I’ll tell you who scares me witless now – ‘cep I’ve bet on him, too (as well as the baron): The Outlier.
If you look at his form at Aintree against Star de Mohaison, it’s extremely classy, and it seems to me 11.1 should not be prohibitive.
I enjoy this kind of thread and would join in but I can’t read the form book and keep all the points of collateral form in my head sufficiently to come to a decision.
What I have done is checked the official ratings and adjusted them to how the horse could perform today IMO, if fit and given luck in running:
143 GVA Ireland)<br>141 Baron Windrush) These are my top 3<br>139 Nil Desperandum)
134 Jaquouiville<br>130 Garryvoe<br>129 Ladalko<br>123 L’Aventure<br>123 Parkinson<br>122 Keepatem<br>117 The Outlier<br>88 Newbay Prop
(Edited by Formath at 1:33 pm on Mar. 17, 2007)
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