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Winter Derby 2007

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Winter Derby 2007

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 59 total)
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  • #1204
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Illustrious Blue 11/2<br>Sri Diamond 11/2<br>Blue Bajan 6/1<br>Gentleman’s Deal 6/1<br>Cusoon 7/1<br>Cimyla 8/1<br>Hattan 8/1<br>Mighty 8/1<br>Orchard Supreme 11/1<br>Alfie Flits 12/1<br>Red Spell 14/1<br>Grand Passion 16/1<br>Luberon 20/1<br>Boo 33/1<br>Speedy Sam 33/1

    Ok no Sir Percy and whilst it hardly looks a high-class renewal it has the best of the smart all-weather performers doing battle with a sprinkling of classy turf performers to boot. By far the most eye-catching runner, especially at double figures (I think he should be favourite) is Alfie Flits. The negative is that he has never run in public on this surface and he also has an alternative engagement at Kempton but those two negatives are made up for by the fact that he’s 12/1. The way this horse ran last year suggests he’s well up to holding his own in Group company this year. Even on the form he has already shown, when spanking a field in listed company at Windsor last time and when chasing home Librettist at Nottingham last May he looks to hold a leading chance. Trainer is also making bullish noises about the way he’s been working with Stevie Gee at home and I cannot see how he’ll be close to being double figures come Saturday.

    The majority in the field look no better than listed/smart handicap class and it will be disappointing if Alfie Flits finds the likes of Orchard Supreme, Blue Bajan etc too hot to handle. I’m happy to be against Gentleman’s Deal on Lingfield’s tight track, though he would make more appeal than most given his recent form and the fact he handled Kempton with aplomb suggests he wouldn’t be a hopeless cause there.  Mighty looks a terrible price at 8/1, was highly progressive earlier in the year but put in his place with few excuses last time and has the best part of a stone to find.

    (Edited by davidjohnson at 10:17 pm on Mar. 19, 2007)

    #47965
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    lol I honestly looked at the prices and thought Alfie Flits and then noticed you go and tip him up! Will probably curse any bet you have/ had if I back it DJ. You are quick to rule Orchard Supreme out but that would probably be my alternative.

    #47967
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720

    Would be slightly concerned about this relative test of speed for Alfie Flits, even allowing for the Nottingham run.

    That said, the likes of Mighty and Orchard Supreme look to have tons to find and they are both shorter. Blue Bajan is a good horse and he looks solid – will be very difficult to keep him out of the first three imo.

    #47969
    Young MickYoung Mick
    Member
    • Total Posts 203

    What about Sri Diamond? He won the race last year so obviously likes the course and the distance and he has a fairly good rating with a win to his name this season. What do you reckon?<br>

    (Edited by Young Mick at 11:28 pm on Mar. 19, 2007)

    #47971
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    I looked at this race briefly last night, as it was the only quality race this week with any declarations.<br>My initial thoughts were that Gentleman’s Deal was the most likely winner, and that any horse that can act round Chepstow and Wolverhampton shouldn’t have a problem with Lingfield, and the step up in trip ought to be in his favour.<br>Alfie Flits will surely find this 10f too sharp, Blue Bajan is a consideration, but looks more like one for the Lincoln, leaving Sri Diamond as the likely danger to my original choice.<br>All imo, of course, and with Jamie S. booked for 2 of the above, it will be interesting to see which finally run

    #47973
    BurroughhillBurroughhill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1638

    If I remember the race last year, it was a bit messy so Sri Diamond was a tad lucky. I’d be happy if it won again this year, but my choice is Cusoon.

    #47974
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    If he runs, I think Spencer will be on Alfie Flits.

    #47975
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    I’m with Dj here, gentlemens deal’s chance is reflected in his price whereas I agree Alfie Flits should not be 12/1 for this, and if he turns up I don’t think he will be.. With Spencer on board got to be a crackin e/w bet..

    #47976
    doyley
    Participant
    • Total Posts 567

    Hello,

    Could be a tad outclassed when reading the form,  ORCHARDS SUPREME, I would be happy he could make a place.

    (Edited by doyley at 12:57 pm on Mar. 20, 2007)

    regards,

    doyley

    #47979
    Ultimate NightmareUltimate Nightmare
    Member
    • Total Posts 326

    very interesting race, i won’t stick my pin in until nearer the day. Looking forward to it though hope it’s a not a messy affair.<br>

    #47980
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Swinbank seems to be leaning towards the 12f race so hold your bets on Alfie.

    #47981
    empty walletempty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    Joe Fanning loose and lonely on the lead is a dangerous scenario

    Gentlemans if ridden prominent, as it was at Kempton, may be the one,  but run in may not be long enough for him to get into full stride, otherwise  he’d be the one to get stuck into

    Most of rest look highly reliant on a decent gallop

    <br>Race to bet in running really or to avoid, could be a crawl until home turn

    <br>

    (Edited by empty wallet at 2:25 am on Mar. 21, 2007)

    #47983
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    I too would worry about the 1m2f trip for Alfie Flits (unless they switch this to the hurdles course!). Sri Diamond would be my pick at this stage.

    #47985
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Quote: from Ultimate Nightmare on 7:20 pm on Mar. 20, 2007[br]very interesting race, i won’t stick my pin in until nearer the day. Looking forward to it though hope it’s a not a messy affair.

    UN

    Unlikely to be a messy race,imo.<br>Gentleman’s Deal depends on his lengthy stride to win his races, and wouldn’t want to get involved in a scramble for position on the notorious final bend.<br>As a full horse who already has a career at stud, his connections would be unlikely to risk this valuable addition to his CV to a 2 furlong sprint, which will hopefully result in a properly run race.

    #47988
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720

    Doesn’t look like MWE has put a pacemaker in though?

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