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Faugheen being out cost me a pretty penny and I was initially gutted that lots of my accas were up in smoke, but the more I think about it (and reading through the conversations on here), I am now catapulted back into the excited bracket, because whatever the outcome, we have a great race to look forward to, other than what would have been a forgone conclusion (if there is such a thing at Cheltenham).
Now Faugheen is out I think a lot of people will be piling into the likes of TNO, MTOY and P&C. I don’t think any of these will beat Arctic Fire
really?! because he beat 2 horses out of the handicap. Showed his tendency again to jump right and this was under no pressure.
I don’t think Ar Mad fans were paying too much attention to him beating 2 inferior horses out of the handicap, or even how the race was run. He was always going to front run, it was all about the jumping – we all know that.
By and large I thought he jumped well. Will need to watch again when I get home from work but apart from the 1st and 3rd (i think), I share the opinion of the Moores that this was an encouraging run and he is Douvan’s main threat come March.
I have been seriously impressed with Ar Mad. One of the most exciting novice chasers in training. Pings his fences, finds when asked and has the potential to be a star.
The left handed issue concerns me slightly, but he has won left handed and is being schooled left handed in prep for Cheltenham, so they must believe he has a chance.
The market is shallow. You have Lami Serge who looks to want sft/hvy ground (which we may get at this rate). You then have Vaniteux @ 10/1, who Ar Mad beat, and then Ar Mad @ 14/1. Ar Mad will most likely make the running and it will be up to the others to catch him from there. Douvan most likley will, but I seriously fancy this horse to run into 2nd. Far more money to be made backing Ar Mad each way than there is Douvan to win at 4/7
Ar Mad did well today, in to 8’s. I hope people have taken bigger prices. Fancy this to cause the upset of the meeting and beat Douvan
1. Will Alan King train more winners than Phillip Hobbs – No
2. Will Paul Nicholls train more winners than Nicky Henderson – Yes
3. Will a female jockey win a race – Yes
4. Will Min, Faugheen, Douvan and Annie Power all win – Yes
5. Will David Pipe train 2 or more winners – Yes
6. Will Vautour finish ahead of Cue Card in the Gold Cup – Yes
7. Will Willie Mullins train 7 or more winners – Yes
8. Will Richard Johnson ride more winners than Barry Geraghty – No
9. Will Sprinter Sacre finish in the first three in the Champion Chase – No
10. Will Thistlecrack win the World Hurdle – Yes
11. Will Venetia Williams train a winner – Yes
12. Will the official going at the start of day 1 be good to soft – No
13. Will there be 10 or more winning favs – Yes
14. Will JP McManus own 3 or more winners – Yes
15. Will Will No More Heroes win the RSA – No
16. Will the Coral Cup winners Sp be 15/1 or shorter – No
17. Will Un De Sceaux win the Champion Chase by 3 or more Lengths – Yes18. – Tie Breaker – What will be the winning time of the Gold Cup – 6.47
I have been seriously impressed with Ar Mad. One of the most exciting novice chasers in training. Pings his fences, finds when asked and has the potential to be a star.
The left handed issue concerns me slightly, but he has won left handed and is being schooled left handed in prep for Cheltenham, so they must believe he has a chance.
The market is shallow. You have Lami Serge who looks to want sft/hvy ground (which we may get at this rate). You then have Vaniteux @ 10/1, who Ar Mad beat, and then Ar Mad @ 14/1. Ar Mad will most likely make the running and it will be up to the others to catch him from there. Douvan most likley will, but I seriously fancy this horse to run into 2nd. Far more money to be made backing Ar Mad each way than there is Douvan to win at 4/7
The analysis of the Henderson pair I would take that at your own peril. I personally think both hendersons horses will beat ar mad and here’s why.
Firstly lami serge I believe is the better of the 2 and as for him preferring soft/heavy I think is very naive. Yes he has mainly ran in those conditions but this isn’t out of choice he just needed to run. He one run he had good ground was the supreme novices which he finished fourth which was slightly disappointing, however, he hit all sorts of trouble and Henderson said he was amazed he still came fourth after that trouble. With a clear run he would of been 2nd at least. So I’m sure he acts on good ground.As for vaniteax, hendersons head lad said before the kempton that vaniteax was their best chance of a winner of Christmas as that’s how highly they think of him. As for the run itself. Vaniteax all but fell/unseated nico at the first fence and then only lost but for ar mad rallying and jumping better at the last after being headed and looking like losing. I’m sure next time they meet vaniteax will beat him and it looks like the bookies agree
We all look and interpret things differently – beauty of this wonderful sport!
I don’t like the ‘niave’ reference. You believing L’ami serge will prefer good ground is an opinion. LS has had limited runs on good ground (as you point out), and lost them both. It is far from niave for me to think a horse who has come over from France and proven on sft/hvy, would prefer sft/hvy over gd/soft. It is no more or no less speculative than your reasoning, although I am basing my opinion on what I have seen, yours in an opinion, so I think you are misplaced in calling my comment niave.
Setting Douvan aside, Ar Mad is rated higher than LS & V, beaten better horses and been far more impressive (IMO) this campaign. That is why I think he will beat them, the comments from Henderson and the head lad don’t really factor into it for me, I am looking at form and ability.
I have been seriously impressed with Ar Mad. One of the most exciting novice chasers in training. Pings his fences, finds when asked and has the potential to be a star.
The left handed issue concerns me slightly, but he has won left handed and is being schooled left handed in prep for Cheltenham, so they must believe he has a chance.
The market is shallow. You have Lami Serge who looks to want sft/hvy ground (which we may get at this rate). You then have Vaniteux @ 10/1, who Ar Mad beat, and then Ar Mad @ 14/1. Ar Mad will most likely make the running and it will be up to the others to catch him from there. Douvan most likley will, but I seriously fancy this horse to run into 2nd. Far more money to be made backing Ar Mad each way than there is Douvan to win at 4/7
I’m gonna go against the grain and will be opposing Mullins in every which way possible. As I mentioned in another thread a good while back, I compared Mullins to Japanese Knotweed … so successful that he’s becoming a nuisance and Henderson is going to be the weedkiller! And so, starting with…
L’Ami Serge to beat Douvan
Peace And Co to shock Faugheen
Sprinter Sacre to bump off Un De Sceaux
Brave/mental/daring!
Are you purposefully picking British trained horses to take them on?
If you are, then I would have Ar Mad over L’Ami Serge and TNO over P&Co, every day of the week. Bigger prices, better form, better value.
I know these are anti-mullins, but I have included some WM that are not ridiculously short favourites: Day 1, I am going:
Supreme – Tombstone – 14
Arkle – Ar Mad – 14
Champion Hurdle – Arctic Fire – 9
Mares Hurdle – Polly Peachum – 12
£25 returns £2000Bachasson – 33
Arkle – Ar Mad – 14
Champion Hurdle – Arctic Fire – 9
Mares Hurdle – Polly Peachum – 12
£25 returns £4000Obviously we don’t know whether Vautour will get 3m2f because he hasn’t tried yet, so for me, the staying debate boils down (first and foremost) to one simple question: Is he a superstar? Answer – yes.
We know Vautour stays 3m, we know he prefers left handed to right handed, we know he loves Cheltenham and we can be fairly confident that he will be fitter come March.
Believing the above to be true I will happily take 10’s on a ? vs 7/2 on Djakadam.
I think Mullins sees Douvan, UDS, Faugheen and Annie Power as complete penalty kicks. There are four festival majors – the Ryanair isn’t one of them. If he needs to ride Djakadam and Vautour in the CG to get the job done then I think he will.
Whichever side of view you take we are in for one hell of a gold cup!
I have taken the below from a poster on the Betfair forum. All about target for Killultagh Vic:
As I envisaged , KV is entered in the 2m 3f novice at Leop next Sunday along with Black Hercules and I would expect KV to run here. I thought that he would then go on for the big G1 2M 5F novice in mid Feb en route to the RSA .There are however some fascinating trainer trends re WPM in relation to horses who run at Leop next weekend and where they go subsequently. I should mention that this novice chase has been run over 2m 5f for the last few years until last year when it was run over 2m 3F and also that its timing has traditionally been around 6 weeks before Chelt and not over 8 weeks like this year. That said , these are the horses Willie has run in the race in the last 4 years with reference to their number of runs over fences and where they subsequently ran
2015 – VAUTOUR – 3rd chase run – straight to JLT
2014 – DJAKADAM – 2nd chase run , straight to JLT
2013 – MARITO – 3rd chase run , straight to JLT
2012 – SIR DES CHAMPS – 3rd chase run , straight to JLTLet’s just say that if KV runs in this race on Sunday , my confidence he will be RSA bound will wane !
The only caveat to that would be that KV , were he to run here on Sunday and go straight to Cheltenham would only have 2 novice runs in going there and that lack of experience didnt avail Djakadam who fell in the JLT , also , there is time with an eight week gap this year for a novice to get another run in three weeks time in the PJ Moriarty G1 .
The history of WPM horses who run in the Moriarty is also illuminating
2011 – Ran Mikael D’Hag and Quel Esprit – both went to RSA
2012 – Ran Call the Police and Lambro – both went to RSA
2013 – Ran Boston Bob – went to RSA
2014 – Ran Ballycasey – went to RSA
2015 – Ran Valseur Lido and Adriana des Mottes – Valseur went to JLT , Adriana to RSA ( Don Poli in same colours presumably the reason Valseur didnt go to RSA )These are compelling trends that somewhat give the lie to the suggestion that WPM is unpredictable and liable to do anything and one can certainly see why KV ‘s odds have been cut today for the JLT .
That said , given what happened Djakadam , I would still not be surprised if KV shows up in both Leopardstown races which will then set trends followers a quandry !
Declaration of interest – I have backed KV at 25s for the RSA six months ago but I have now taken insurance at 14s for the JLT
Thank you for the welcome steeplechasing and venture.
Does anyone have a line on where village vic will go?
Hello all, long term reader of the forum so thought I would make my first post.
I have been stung in previous years betting Ante Post so have stayed within the to win any race market.
Shantou Village @ 14’s
Killulagh Vic @ 12’s
Yanworth @ 12’s
Barters Hill @ 14,s, 12’s, 10’s
Camping Ground @ 14’s, 12’s
Aux Ptit Soin @ 16’s
I got Vautour @ 16’s with PP after the GC – still can’t believe they did this
