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This race poses plenty of ante-post problems as at this stage it is difficult enough just to predict runners.
Douvan aside, I don’t think the Irish novice chase form looks particularly strong. Beating up the likes of Monksland and particularly Free Expression isn’t nearly enough to make the 3/1 No More Heroes look at all enticing. Add in a defeat at last year’s Festival and happy to look elsewhere. Looks like a fair amount of perceived potential, rather than proven ability, included in that price.
Again it looks as if More Of That is priced more on a reproduction of his World Hurdle win than anything else. He has landed a couple of small field novice chases with some ease but they are a far cry from what he is likely to encounter at the Festival. Is he a thorough stayer? Is he going Gold Cup? Two other reasons to maybe tread a little carefully.
Pont Alexandre was the big hype horse a couple of year’s ago. He returned to make a winning chasing debut but the opposition was pretty ordinary and the mere fact that he is heading up the market for the National Hunt Chase makes me wonder whether he really has enough ability to challenge for an RSA.
Despite the slightly bigger price I would prefer Killultagh Vic to Pont Alexandre. He appeared to show significant improvement over hurdles towards the end of last season. Unfortunately, an easy win over the minimum trip is all the evidence we have over the larger obstacles. Does he go JLT or RSA? Is he good enough for either?
I think Seeyouatmidnight’s Cheltenham win is just about the pick of this season’s novice chase form. He is thought of as a thorough stayer but I do wonder if a shorter trip and soft ground are actually his optimum. He has already weakened a few times over the longer trip. So a strong piece of form but will he also go JLT?
So with doubts about the front five there must be some value lurking somewhere, just a case of finding it.
It probably wasn’t much of a race at Huntingdon but it was pretty hard not to be impressed with Drumacoo. He jumped particularly well and looked a thorough stayer. Looking ahead he also had some good ground form in Ireland. At 25/1 I think he would be the one for me at the moment.
Although, The RSA would be worth more for me with Seeyouatmidnight, I also like him for The JLT. There’s no doubt that the 3 mile in The World Hurdle stretched him, he was looking the winner 2 out, but didn’t find too much. Whether or not that was off the back of his interrupted preparation, I don’t know, but he must have a decent chance in the shorter race. Still think he’ll go RSA though.
Drumacoo was very impressive the other day, and that 25’s looks very fair off the back of that.
GL
I think Seeyouatmidnight’s Cheltenham win is just about the pick of this season’s novice chase form. He is thought of as a thorough stayer but I do wonder if a shorter trip and soft ground are actually his optimum. He has already weakened a few times over the longer trip. So a strong piece of form but will he also go JLT?
So with doubts about the front five there must be some value lurking somewhere, just a case of finding it.
It probably wasn’t much of a race at Huntingdon but it was pretty hard not to be impressed with Drumacoo. He jumped particularly well and looked a thorough stayer. Looking ahead he also had some good ground form in Ireland. At 25/1 I think he would be the one for me at the moment.
Although, The RSA would be worth more for me with Seeyouatmidnight, I also like him for The JLT. There’s no doubt that the 3 mile in The World Hurdle stretched him, he was looking the winner 2 out, but didn’t find too much. Whether or not that was off the back of his interrupted preparation, I don’t know, but he must have a decent chance in the shorter race. Still think he’ll go RSA though.
It was a similar story in the Aintree novice hurdle.
Oh I remember that Aintree Hurdle only too well, perfect example of his suspect stamina.
I think Seeyouatmidnight’s Cheltenham win is just about the pick of this season’s novice chase form. He is thought of as a thorough stayer but I do wonder if a shorter trip and soft ground are actually his optimum. He has already weakened a few times over the longer trip. So a strong piece of form but will he also go JLT?
So with doubts about the front five there must be some value lurking somewhere, just a case of finding it.
It probably wasn’t much of a race at Huntingdon but it was pretty hard not to be impressed with Drumacoo. He jumped particularly well and looked a thorough stayer. Looking ahead he also had some good ground form in Ireland. At 25/1 I think he would be the one for me at the moment.
Although, The RSA would be worth more for me with Seeyouatmidnight, I also like him for The JLT. There’s no doubt that the 3 mile in The World Hurdle stretched him, he was looking the winner 2 out, but didn’t find too much. Whether or not that was off the back of his interrupted preparation, I don’t know, but he must have a decent chance in the shorter race. Still think he’ll go RSA though.
Drumacoo was very impressive the other day, and that 25’s looks very fair off the back of that.
GL
Agree with you about the JLT for him. Don’t see any reason to step him up in trip, even on better ground. Some horses don’t stay 3 miles on Good just because they stay 2m5f on Heavy.
That was a poor 3 mile point he won at Dromahane when he was all out to win and the Kelso race was muddling to say the least.I have taken the below from a poster on the Betfair forum. All about target for Killultagh Vic:
As I envisaged , KV is entered in the 2m 3f novice at Leop next Sunday along with Black Hercules and I would expect KV to run here. I thought that he would then go on for the big G1 2M 5F novice in mid Feb en route to the RSA .There are however some fascinating trainer trends re WPM in relation to horses who run at Leop next weekend and where they go subsequently. I should mention that this novice chase has been run over 2m 5f for the last few years until last year when it was run over 2m 3F and also that its timing has traditionally been around 6 weeks before Chelt and not over 8 weeks like this year. That said , these are the horses Willie has run in the race in the last 4 years with reference to their number of runs over fences and where they subsequently ran
2015 – VAUTOUR – 3rd chase run – straight to JLT
2014 – DJAKADAM – 2nd chase run , straight to JLT
2013 – MARITO – 3rd chase run , straight to JLT
2012 – SIR DES CHAMPS – 3rd chase run , straight to JLTLet’s just say that if KV runs in this race on Sunday , my confidence he will be RSA bound will wane !
The only caveat to that would be that KV , were he to run here on Sunday and go straight to Cheltenham would only have 2 novice runs in going there and that lack of experience didnt avail Djakadam who fell in the JLT , also , there is time with an eight week gap this year for a novice to get another run in three weeks time in the PJ Moriarty G1 .
The history of WPM horses who run in the Moriarty is also illuminating
2011 – Ran Mikael D’Hag and Quel Esprit – both went to RSA
2012 – Ran Call the Police and Lambro – both went to RSA
2013 – Ran Boston Bob – went to RSA
2014 – Ran Ballycasey – went to RSA
2015 – Ran Valseur Lido and Adriana des Mottes – Valseur went to JLT , Adriana to RSA ( Don Poli in same colours presumably the reason Valseur didnt go to RSA )These are compelling trends that somewhat give the lie to the suggestion that WPM is unpredictable and liable to do anything and one can certainly see why KV ‘s odds have been cut today for the JLT .
That said , given what happened Djakadam , I would still not be surprised if KV shows up in both Leopardstown races which will then set trends followers a quandry !
Declaration of interest – I have backed KV at 25s for the RSA six months ago but I have now taken insurance at 14s for the JLT
My fancy for the RSA, BRISTOL DE MAI is running tomorrow in The
Scilly Isles Novice Chase at Sandown. I was trying to hold off
as long as I could, I’m not sure he will definitely go the RSA
route as he’s also entered in The JLT.If he puts in an impressive run tomorrow, and I think he will,
I would fancy he goes the RSA route, and the 25/1 with Betfred
and Tote is going to disappear.So it’s bull by the horns time and I’m hoping he impresses enough
to head for the RSA. I think a great deal of this horse, he cruised
to victory, never off the bridle last couple of races. OK, the
opposition wasn’t spectacular, but he was on a different planet to
them.He’s got tougher opposition tomorrow in the shape of TEA FOR TWO, who
is favourite, but if he’s as good as I think he is I think he will come
out on top.More of That for me (on at 6/1). I genuinely cannot believe that No More Heroes is so short? More of That is 4/4 at Cheltenham, including a World Hurdle win, in which he lowered the colours (which nobody else has managed to do!) of Annie Power. He has a top notch combination of Jonjo/Geraghty. Geraghty gets on so well with the horse, that he isn’t running this weekend in the Scilly Isles Novice Chase, because he is riding in Ireland this weekend. I thought that the connections were wrong to run Coneygree in the GC instead of the RSA, as I genuinely thought that a novice couldn’t win the GC (how spectacularly wrong can one be?!)
Connections have been talking the same way about this horse, which to me speaks volumes. I just hope he doesn’t go for the GC now instead!I know manny have written off Pont Alexandfre after his beating by Roi Des Francs, he too runs tomorrow in Ireland. I still have faith in him, admittedly this is my pocket talking as I’m just hoping he still retains all thr ability he once had and that it was the bounce factor that got him beaten after his huge layoff. He’s 5/2 tomorrow against Monksland who in turn has some decent form (nothing like what’s needed for a race like the RSA), i can see Pont winning tomorrow quite easily, hopefully in the same manner as No More Heroes dispatched of Monksland. What do others think?
I know manny have written off Pont Alexandfre after his beating by Roi Des Francs, he too runs tomorrow in Ireland. I still have faith in him, admittedly this is my pocket talking as I’m just hoping he still retains all thr ability he once had and that it was the bounce factor that got him beaten after his huge layoff. He’s 5/2 tomorrow against Monksland who in turn has some decent form (nothing like what’s needed for a race like the RSA), i can see Pont winning tomorrow quite easily, hopefully in the same manner as No More Heroes dispatched of Monksland. What do others think?
I’d agree,shouldn’t be written off at all. I was never too keen on him as a hurdler but his chase debut was mightily impressive and then the last day i think Ruby got it wrong,the horse was travelling really well and jumping beautifully but he didn’t seem to want to use that jumping ability,i’d expect him to make all tomorrow and i’d actually be surprised if he doesn’t beat Outlander and Monksland if doing so and using his jumping. Zabana could be a fly in the ointment though.
Great performance from Bristol De Mai. I really hope NTD aims him at this one, I
think the further he goes the better he is. The talk seems all about the JLT, but
not much I can do about that now, my money is down. The 25s I took is gone, although
Betfair still hold 20s, the rest between 12 and 16/1C’mon Nigel, take the chance, you could have a potential Gold Cup winner of the
future on your hands.Great performance from Bristol De Mai. I really hope NTD aims him at this one, I
think the further he goes the better he is. The talk seems all about the JLT, but
not much I can do about that now, my money is down. The 25s I took is gone, although
Betfair still hold 20s, the rest between 12 and 16/1C’mon Nigel, take the chance, you could have a potential Gold Cup winner of the
future on your hands.Have a feeling that on the day he didn’t beat much. Tea For Two never looked that happy and is probably a stone better round Kempton. Quicker ground another concern.
You may have a point there Stilvi, but I had bet him before today’s race
because of his previous runs. Whether he beat much or not today, he couldn’t
have been any more convincing. I think he looks like a longer trip will be to
his advantage, he really has some engine.He was beaten by Ar Mad 4 races back, but that was over 2m when he was screaming
for further. Upped to 2m 4f he has come into his own and looked impressive winning
his last three, and today.I’m biased, obviously, but he looks an exciting horse to me. I’d love to see
him head to the RSA, I think he will love the the test of 3 miles and the stiff
finish at Cheltenham.I haven’t heard any word from NTD on it yet, but I hope he goes this route.
Great performance from Bristol De Mai. I really hope NTD aims him at this one, I
think the further he goes the better he is. The talk seems all about the JLT, but
not much I can do about that now, my money is down. The 25s I took is gone, although
Betfair still hold 20s, the rest between 12 and 16/1C’mon Nigel, take the chance, you could have a potential Gold Cup winner of the
future on your hands.Suspect a lot will depend on what horses the owner has at his disposal. Munir and Souede have Lami Surge who’s got plenty of speed and Vyta Du Rock looked as though didn’t have enough speed when racing at around 2 1/2 miles. To me, Bristol De Mai travels really well in his races at 2m4f that he’s not certain to stay a truly run 3m. So – sorry mate – suspect it’ll be:
Lami Surge – Arkle
Vyta Du Rock – RSA
Bristol Du Mai – JLTValue Is EverythingIt looks like you have called it right Ginger, this appears in the racing post…….
“Munir, Bristol De Mai’s part-owner, added: “That was his seventh run, so he seems to be
getting better and better with every run. The JLT will now be his target.”Unless something changes between now and the Festival, it seems my cash is floating
down the Suwannee
You may well be right Ginger, not a lot I can do about it now but
wait and see
Also, Nigel Twister has Blacklion for the RSA.
Well, as far as I am concerned hopefully the RSA. I don’t want him taking on Black Hercules in the 4 miler.Don’t give up Big G, one minor injury from another horse can easily change plans for others.
Value Is Everything
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