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Visually very impressive and done nothing wrong so far. However we just don’t know how she will react to a battle in a finish? It could be that she won’t have to in the Arc, but against, Soldier Of Fortune, Youmzain, Getaway, Vision D’Etat etc she could find things quite different.
I wouldn’t want to be steaming in at 2/1 or less myself at this stage, especially as we don’t know if New Approach or Duke Of Marmalade will line up yet either?
I cannot see CURLIN lining up in the Classic. Slim to no chance IMO.
I would also expect DUKE OF MARMALADE to run in the Turf with HTN in the Classic.
Haven’t been impressed with BIG BROWN in his last two starts. I think he will be found wanting in the Classic.
Bankable goes over 1m2f for the first time this Sunday and early indications show that 4/5 may be the price the horse goes off at.
Slightly short if you ask me. I’d want at least 11/8 to back Bankable for this especially as Lady Deauville is on a three-timer for Franny Norton at 5/1.
Will Bankable stay? Will Bankable win?
We know he stays already!!
I was a big fan of MUTHABARA and if she hadn’t run such a shocker last time out she would be of interest EW.
No bet for me.
The amount of money hedged through Betfair by other firms/organisations could very quickly dry up as it will now not be worth their while.
[b:3g1zhi2q]I disagree as firms looking to hedge will be more likely to be predominantly backers on Betfair and therefore the Premium charges shouldn’t really affect them.[/[/b:3g1zhi2q]quote]
Why wouldn’t it affect them?!?!?
Of course it will. It could stop them altogether!!
The major fallout from this (that I don’t think has been touched on yet) is the huge effect this could have on liquidity.
The amount of money hedged through Betfair by other firms/organisations could very quickly dry up as it will now not be worth their while.
This surely will affect everyone eventually.
Here’s my theory on this. It might sound like complete rubbish but it’s how I read tomorrow for HTN.
On soft ground tomorrow you will ideally need a horse who is not limited to a mile but one that can run further. A horse than has shown or is believed to be able to run a 1m2f race would have a much better chance here. It’s a similar situation to what MDeering was stating about US Ranger being favoured in heavy conditions at Haydock if it was run due to his previous runs on 7f and entries in mile competitions.
AOB, I think, has left HTN in here as this has changed from a normal mile race to a ‘wannabee’ 1m2f race. Not only is it another chance for HTN to prove himself over a mile but it is also a Breeders Cup trial now. AOB has said for a while now that the Breeders Cup Classic will be HTN’s next race. The Moulin is an inbetween.
In my opinion, to AOB it now looks like the best of both worlds and I think Henry can win tomorrow. AOB was considering the Irish Champion Stakes for HTN even when it was said to be Good (good to soft in places) at Leopardstown so why would he be worried about a stiff mile here?
HTN is now 11/8 on Paddy Power and I’m seriously considering taking a gamble and putting some more on.
Natagora also has a great chance having run at Longchamp over the French Derby distance. I think she’ll end up 2nd here but may push HTN. 11/1 on Betfair is a ridiculously good price.
Darjina hates this weather and was taken out at Newmarket because of soft ground. I doubt she’ll be up there in the final furlong or so.
HTN for me. I’m sure you’re all thinking ‘what is he on?!!’ but I honestly believe HTN will win tomorrow.
Dan
Dan,
A couple of APB’s quotes….
our colt was always struggling and was clearly hating the ground. He was in trouble well before he got to the front.
our fellow just doesn’t like that sort of going. Hopefully, he will get better ground next time.
He is a real fast ground horse, a real miler with loads of sprinting speed.
Not sure I would want to go in @ 11/8 until I saw what the weather/going was tomorrow?
By no means an easy race for HTN on Good to Soft, so any softer than that and he will surely drift further?
Thats not to say he won’t win though.
Given that somebody wants nearly £2000 on it being off @ 2/13 on Betfair I would suggest racing is extremely unlikely!!
To be fair though, that could just be a compulsive gambler going by the odds thinking ‘Ahh it’s low it’ll be off’
Eh? That makes absolutely no sense at all!!
Its an exchange!! They are setting the odds?!?!?
Given that somebody wants nearly £2000 on it being off @ 2/13 on Betfair I would suggest racing is extremely unlikely!!
An equally tenuous form line through Dansant gives Mourilyan the beating of Many Volumes and of Halicarnassus on another form line but I agree lay off means probably best left alone. Blue Monday’s form of a couple of seasons ago would make him a very likley winner but recent efforts not up to that and has never won over this trip.
Many Volumes is the obvious choice and not much between Galatic Star and Lion Sands though I would say the former poses the biggest threat.
May not have won over the trip but 4th in the Canadian International and 4th in the Caulfield Cup doesn’t read too badly?
You are taking a punt that he acts on the surface, but if he is within 10lbs of his best, that would still be good enough to win here.
Slightly suprised at the early odds on Betfair this afternoon for this.
Young Mick at 10/1
Many Volumes at 3/1 (which I’ve taken as I think that’ll drop by the morning when the regular bookies offer something like 7/4)
No clear favourite either….Galactic Star is showing at 3/1 too.
Hattan 7/4 to even place!
7/4 will be much too short HTH. More like 7/2 I would’ve thought?
And Hattan 7/4 to place? More like 5/1?
Dan,
The 4lb difference is completely irrelevant as that was a conditions race and this is a Group 3.
I agree that Many Volumes looks to have the most solid chance given his recent form but his price will obviously reflect that.
The one that interests me at this stage is Blue Monday. A pleasing reappearance on his return to Roger Charlton, on his best previous form he would eat this lot for breakfast. The doubts are, he is now a 7yo (although connections must feel he still has plenty to offer) and no form on this surface.
At a decent price I will take a chance on him.
Curlin is a good horse, the best around, his form lines standup on the polytrack ( via Well Armed getting beaten half a lengght in the pacific classic). Jess Jackson needs too stop arsing around and come home too California and let his champion go toe too toe with Big Brown.
If Big Browns conections are running scared and think a listed win on drugs drusg wil prep a horse for a run on the alweather against the best alweather horses in the US then they are bloody fools,.
Tiznows sons Colenel John and Well Armed will be ready and awaiting in so cal, if BB tries too wire the field then he will run into Well Armed, who pyhsically is a monster and i doubt will be initmadated by him bulk as lesser horses have been this year. Add too the fact Aiden O’Brian may run a pace maker plus Henrythenavigater and Duke Of Maramalde.
It will be a great race, no hanging about, no lighting fast surface and a shed loads of drugs. When Eight Bells collasped she in affect kicked up a big rock, now BB is paying the price…
As for Curlin, he has run clean in Dubai twice, so the BCC should not be a worry in terms of the drugs policy on BC day. [/code]
I just cannot see Big Brown and Curlin ever racing against each other.
And AP O’Brien won’t run Henrythenavigator and Duke Of Marmalade in the Classic.
