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No storm Dennis down there in Australia and so I will content myself with some Antipodean sunshine: –
Werribee
+R3 – CLIFFSINGER @ 5/4 . . . . . . . . . .. . 3rdAlbany
R2 – NURHACI @ 7/4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2nd
R4 – MOOD GODDESS @ 21/20 . . . . . . . . 2nd+CLIFFSINGER would be my nap should I have to nominate one but they are all looking to be there or there about.
UK Domestic selections – stick or twist? I am concerned about Storm Dennis, I am told horses don’t like racing in the wind and so the 3 at Kempton: – CLOG MAKER – ENTANGLING – KINGS ADVICE will not be bet by myself but if they do race I hope they go on to win.
Billy's Outback Shack
Very kind words MrE.
Who would have thought 13 winners from 15 selections in 10 days for an experimental system (2 were not backed) but nevertheless equals an 86% strike rate. The prices will never set the world alight but they can add up
Billy's Outback Shack
I am suffering a severe case of dizziness by doing too many cartwheels whilst covered in magic dust and yet again I find a super selection with all the ducks lined up in a row ticking box after box after box. How can I not fill my boots?
Lingfield – 3.45 EL GHAZWANI @ 5/4 . . . . WON [20p R4]
At the very same meeting 2.00 DUBLIN PHARAOH @ 11/8 looks almost as interesting. . WON
Billy's Outback Shack
Saturday in Australia.
Once again Saturday is a mega busy day and try as I may I have only managed to reduce my numbers to 8 selections of which they all have a sprinkling of magic dust which I hope may prove profitable after all the work undertaken to find them.
Ascot
R6 – SUPERSTORM @ SP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . WONMorphetville
+R8 – HASTA LA WAR @ 13/10 . . . . . . . . . . 2ndFlemington
R5 – ALLIGATOR BLOOD @ 11/10 . . . . . . . . WON
R7 – NATURE STRIP @ SPEagle Farm
R1 – ROTHFIRE @ SP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . WONBendigo
+R3 – SHARLIE @ 8/5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2ndToowoomba
R1 – RAPIDO GRIS @ 12/5
R4 – CHRISTMAS CREEK @ 13/5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .WON+As I have already said each selection has a sprinkle of magic dust and therefor I have loaded the stake but SHARLIE checks out via both systems and so has the stake increased a little bit more.
+I have been waiting to see if I could get the last Duck in a Row and now know HASTA LA WAR is the HYPE HORSE and so has a stake increase.
Billy's Outback Shack
I sympathise Purwell, I really do and am sure the gout is not helping.
Billy's Outback Shack
BEAT the BOOKIE! Oh so hard to do and those that can are my heroes.
LOSING RUNS. Will always differ with the application of different methods Purwell. My own experience suggests they are shorter but then again I am chasing favourites rather than seeking value.
I understand the Australian rules require a submission of the intended tactics and should they not be employed they will be asked why! This I believe is to assist the punter and bring greater honesty to the sport. Such knowledge must help those betting a horse race and may help us reduce losing runs.
Billy's Outback Shack
Friday in Australia but there are not any system picks from this end and so there will not be any Valentines Day gifts from me.
I am delighted to say the tweaks I have made to my two Australian systems look to be paying me back in shovel loads where since the 3rd of this month I was 18pts. in the red and now 10 days later I am a healthy 6pts. in profit.
May it continue.
. . . . . . . . . . . and there are not any domestic selection and so Friday will be quiet!
Billy's Outback Shack
FILL YOUR BOOTS!
Before I come to my selection at Chelmsford tomorrow night I really must pay attention to the horse which has by a whisker not made the cut. PITCHERS POINT in the 8.00 race. Under other circumstances I would be doing cartwheels over this John Gosden trained horse but there are 3 Godolphin horses in this very same race and if that is not a big enough negative then looking at Gosdon’s stats of 0% at Chelmsford is a worry.
But ticking every box in the 7.00 race is SOLAR HEIGHTS which has been priced to win at 0.72/1 (Boosted) Wm. Hill. . . . . . WON
If it drifts tomorrow I will go in again for more and if it drifts more I will go in again.
I will also have a small stake on PITCHERS POINT @ 7/4 which does look a very worthy punt but only SOLAR HEIGHTS makes it look ordinary.
Billy's Outback Shack
Just like the Boy Scouts [am I being sexist when I say BOY scouts] I am prepared, at the very least I am getting prepared to FILL MY BOOTS at Chelmsford tomorrow.
Just like the ducks they are starting to get lined up, all in a row, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick with just one box ready and waiting to be ticked later this evening, empty the piggy bank and be ready.
Later’
Billy's Outback Shack
I was talking to Lady Daphne about this earlier MrE and whilst trying to explain the problem I realised I enjoy the surprise when having an unexpected winner and hating the disappointment when thinking I have one expecting too win and it does not.
If I was serious about the whole business I would not be staking as small as I do, I enjoy the chase and live to know it is possible to beat the bookie, even if they should be at small fractions .
Talking of beating the book I finished the Kieren Fallon autobiography and although I have always regarding him as top class he also now commands my respect.
I also received another book as a Christmas present which whilst my mind is in racing mode it felt like a good idea to pick this one up: –
THE SURE THING – The greatest coup in horse racing history, by Nick Townsend being the story of Barney Curley and feel I am in for another treat.
Billy's Outback Shack
Ain’t we all just looking towards our sell by dates.
I really must be a Glass Half Empty person because I really do like these Australian selections and that always worries me. Each has a little something extra going for it which has induced me to load the stake which makes me worry even more.
Bunbury
R3 – COME RIGHT BACK @ 7/5 . . . . . . . . . WON 3.2
Kyneton
R1 – BELLA BEE @ 2/1 . . . . . . . . . . . .WON 4.4
R9 – EARLY MORNING RISE @ 13/8 . . 2nd
Pakenham
+R1 – HEY HAPPY @ 6/5 . . . . . . 3rd
R2 – RECOGNISE @ 7/4+HEY HAPPY is the HYPE horse but not quite a Fill Your Boots type, although I am tempted.
Bet365’s Australian version of our BOG plus a little extra stake loading has put me in the box seat for the remainder of the month.
Billy's Outback Shack
Beyond my comfort zone Purwell but the only possible gem I have picked up maybe that some horses prefer different ground conditions rather than anything else.
Billy's Outback Shack
I am sorry to read you are still poorly MrE and I sincerely hope the doc. is getting you sorted.
Billy's Outback Shack
This is my first chance to reply Purwell having been rushed of my feet but I really liked your question and pleased you have given us the opportunity to have some input.
I was very surprised to learn via the Fallon book (FORM) how M. Stoute called him out over his poor strike rate at Windsor, a course Fallon did not like very much because he felt it did not suit his riding style and produced a SR of only 8%, whereas Stoute claimed his SR there was 40% and Fallon was simply not helping the percentages.
I was surprised to understand trainers keep abreast of their performance at individual tracks.
It therefor makes sense to follow them at certain venues where they know they have a good record rather than places where they, for whatever reason, do not.
Billy's Outback Shack
Dolus, I have just picked up on your post regarding the missing meeting at Port Macquarie, which was abandoned.
The Australian sites are not good (IMO) regarding information about abandoned meetings and eventually found out via SKY
Billy's Outback Shack
If you like the very short priced favourites it could be FILL YOUR BOOTS time at Gawler in Race 1.
+OUR DEEP AGENDA – Gawler, Race 1, @ SP . . . . . WON
Launceston
CHASE on the CASE – Race 1, at 1/1 . . . . . . . WON
REAL ACCLAIM – R2 @ 2.7
GEE GEE SECOND OVER – R10 @ SPBoth OUR DEEP AGENDA & GEE GEE SECOND OVER are priced at odds-on and so I am continuing with the idea of taking SP in the hope of the prices drifting.
The smallest of profits but only because of loading the stake on OUR DEEP AGENDA otherwise it would have been a losing day at level stakes.
Billy's Outback Shack
