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System Dilemmas

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  • #1482691
    PurwellPurwell
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    • Total Posts 625

    Since Christmas I have been looking into trainers performance at certain tracks with some success.
    I look for a strike rate of at least 30% and they must be showing a profit at SP.

    Halfway through January I added some filters to each of the trainers that I am following, not always the same ones I might add.

    Here are a couple of examples:
    Paul Nicholls at Musselburgh. 38% strike rate and a profit of 9.04.
    I have added filters: Only these race types: Chase, Hurdle, NH Flat, Hunters Chase, Claimer Hurdle,
    Beginners Chase, Maiden Chase, Maiden Hurdle, Maiden NH Flat, Novices Claimer Hurdle, Novices Seller Hurdle, Handicap Chase.

    Daniel Skelton at Perth. 36% strike rate and a profit of 3.84.
    I have added filters: Good and Good/Firm going only.
    Only these race types: Hurdle, NH Flat, Novices Chase, Handicap Hurdle, Handicap Novices Chase, Handicap Novices Hurdle.

    At the moment I have not got far enough to decide if this is having the desired effect or not.

    The question that I am asking is, do you think I have fallen into the trap of “back fitting”?

    #1482698
    MrE
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    • Total Posts 2147

    Yes!!!…. that’s the short answer Purwell….. but you have to ask yourself, how can you possibly form a system without “back fitting” and the answer to that is that you can’t, the two go hand in glove.
    Every system that I know of, has had to use past results as a guide, even down to such a simple task of looking at past form and making sure your selection likes “heavy” going, so surely, studying past form is in itself “back fitting”.
    I think we, as a group, get too bogged down with that “back fitting” tag, I think the “trap” is to actually bet them before trying it out for real…. make the odd tweak to things that are obviously out of place and then proof it for 3 months, it doesn’t earn you any money during that intermission, but it’s an enjoyable past time, well, it is for me.

    MrE

    #1482699
    PurwellPurwell
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    • Total Posts 625

    Thank you.
    You have more or less confirmed my suspicions.

    I was going to ask this question elsewhere but I knew that a certain person would fall into the sort of rage that Old Mother Riley used to do at the mention of back fitting, so I put it here.

    I have only done this for about a dozen trainers, mostly well known ones but some more obscure. In most cases it only amounts to perhaps 10 or 15 races per year but they have been profitable over the last ten years.
    Lets face it if you can get four winners at 2/1 from ten bets you are ahead of the game.

    #1482716
    billion
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    • Total Posts 4289

    This is my first chance to reply Purwell having been rushed of my feet but I really liked your question and pleased you have given us the opportunity to have some input.

    I was very surprised to learn via the Fallon book (FORM) how M. Stoute called him out over his poor strike rate at Windsor, a course Fallon did not like very much because he felt it did not suit his riding style and produced a SR of only 8%, whereas Stoute claimed his SR there was 40% and Fallon was simply not helping the percentages.

    I was surprised to understand trainers keep abreast of their performance at individual tracks.

    It therefor makes sense to follow them at certain venues where they know they have a good record rather than places where they, for whatever reason, do not.

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #1482721
    PurwellPurwell
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    • Total Posts 625

    It still pays to use your own judgement instead of blindly backing any runner by the trainer.

    I slipped up yesterday with a Charlie Appleby runner in the 7:20 at Newcastle, Discovery Island.
    My instincts earlier had told me that the price was much too short for a horse making it’s AW debut but I still backed it at 10/11.

    It had hovered just above even money all day but as time went on it was odds on and finished third at 4/5.

    I am also looking at the performance of the top sires progeny at specific tracks in similar fashion to the trainers but I think this may be better suited to the coming flat season.

    #1482724
    billion
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    • Total Posts 4289

    Beyond my comfort zone Purwell but the only possible gem I have picked up maybe that some horses prefer different ground conditions rather than anything else. :unsure:

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #1482725
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2147

    I’ve been a “systemite” for ever….. I have played about with betting tips and would mention that there are some pretty good paid for tipster around and it saves spending hours glaring at form books, but at the end of the day, there is nothing better than to do things your own way, you get a large degree of satisfaction in achieving what other punters say you cant…. I enjoy it more than I should when I make profits from it and I get a sense of euphoria at the prospect of looking at those doubters and giving them the “finger”…. yes, I know it’s childish, but it’s who I am…. :mail:
    Over the years I have looked at easing my workload on systems and purchased a database, using this I was able to collate all the angles that I wanted to look at, including trainer / Jockey percentages over certain courses. I found that to be quite profitable, the only problem being that I needed to keep up to date with it all because percentages change on a daily basis, they don’t remain stable…. it meant that I was getting a shortlist of selections and had to plough even deeper to make sure that the going and the distances were correct. In the end, I was getting more and more tangled up with an ever increasing workload….. so I opted for a simple approach….
    Both Bill and I ended up working on the Aussie ones together over email, that was before we rejoined TRF and I think we have reached a modicum of success…. the workload is a lot less and the selections are made in about 10 minutes. We proofed it for about 3 months and we are doing quite well…. in fact, we are doing well enough to transfer the same idea over to the UK and to say that I am surprised at the success over here is an understatement.
    The moral of the story I think, is to keep it simple so that one doesn’t get bogged down with the usual overload…. works for me anyway….
    :mail: :mail:

    MrE

    #1482860
    PurwellPurwell
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    • Total Posts 625

    I would certainly agree about tucking it up the doubters.
    The people who glibly say “You’ll never beat the Boookie,boy!”, when they have no bloody idea of how to go about it. Just because they can’t beat the Bookie does not mean that you and I can’t does it?

    As regards your point about keeping up with the changes in percentages; this is a problem that I have come across and I try to adjust things about once a week.

    Do you find losing runs shorter with the Australian racing?

    #1482864
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4289

    BEAT the BOOKIE! Oh so hard to do and those that can are my heroes.

    LOSING RUNS. Will always differ with the application of different methods Purwell. My own experience suggests they are shorter but then again I am chasing favourites rather than seeking value.

    I understand the Australian rules require a submission of the intended tactics and should they not be employed they will be asked why! This I believe is to assist the punter and bring greater honesty to the sport. Such knowledge must help those betting a horse race and may help us reduce losing runs.

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #1482866
    PurwellPurwell
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    • Total Posts 625

    That sounds an excellent idea and I believe they have professional stewards unlike some of our “jobs for the boys” types.

    I was having a look earlier at my experimental idea of progeny at specific tracks and my HRB system had flagged up a qualifier at Dundalk tonight. Shebergan in the 7:30 is by Sea The Stars and the overall figures for his progeny are; since 2013, 544 bets, 146 wins at a strike rate of 28.7%.
    I decided to investigate a bit further as there was a slight suspicion that something was wrong and when I split the data down to Dundalk Handicaps I get 29 bets. 4 winners and a measly strike rate of 13.79.

    Damn thing will probably win now just to spite me though!

    #1482867
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4289

    I sympathise Purwell, I really do and am sure the gout is not helping.

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #1482884
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2147

    Good afternoon Purwell, in the main, I can only agree with Bill…. and when he says that Aussie racing is different from ours, he is so right, but I find that an advantage.
    The question of losing runs is a very difficult one to answer because the length of those runs are dependent upon the market position that your betting in. You would expect long losing runs if your aiming around the 7/1 mark, but they should be considerably shorter if your betting at the sharp end.
    I run the risk of trying to teach my grandmother to suck eggs because your probably well aware of what I’m gonna say, if so, my apologies…. I would be more concerned with the HBD than I would with losing runs, but that doesn’t really answer your question about losing runs and Aussie racing and I can only tell you what I am doing.
    I need tomorrows results to come in to complete a full 3 months “proofing” with no further “tweaks” and so far I find it VERY profitable…. am I nervous???… yes…. because each months profits have gradually reduced. The monthly profit has gone from +32pts…. down to +28pts and assuming my 3 selections lose tomorrow morning, the third month will be +18pts…. the drop off could be because of the fires or more recently the rain because I don’t bet in heavy going and there’s been a hell of a lot of that recently…. so, even after 3 months I am still in the dark.
    Losing runs have been regular and I have had one losing run of 12 and one of 10, but that was not the painful bit, the painful area was when I had a losing run of 7 followed by two losing runs of 8… these losing runs were punctuated with a winner @ 2.50 and 2.00, that gave me a drawdown of just in excess of 20pts and was far more damaging than the LLR of 12…… I tend to think that we punters get to tied up in the longest losing sequences, it only tells half the story…
    WoW!!!…. I got carried away, this was a lot longer than intended….. sorry if you found it boring….
    :wacko: :wacko: :wacko:

    MrE

    #1482911
    PurwellPurwell
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    • Total Posts 625

    Sods Law strikes again Shebergan has just won at Dundalk. This game can make us look stupid sometimes, luckily I did decide to have a small interest.

    #1482912
    billion
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    • Total Posts 4289

    Book the cruise.

    :yahoo: :yahoo: :yahoo:

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #1483281
    PurwellPurwell
    Participant
    • Total Posts 625

    My system of following sires at specific tracks has flagged up two possible selections today.

    Shantung in the 2:50 Doncaster, I have a note on this saying “useless” but it’s mark has slipped.

    My Old Gold in the Veterans Chase at 3:55 Doncaster does look a good bet at a reasonable price of 4/1.

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