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Well not long now till we know who got this one right. I started the thread, and interesting as the comments have been, I still stick to my original choices.
I know Al Ferof still has it to prove at this level, and that PN is looking to the future with him, although I don’t think he would place him in a race that he thought he had no chance of winning. But I am far from certain that he will win, just that I feel he is the likeliest winner if he progresses the way I think he might.
I know poor old forpadytheplasterer has taken a bit of a bashing on here, but I would be more certain of him being placed than I am of Al Ferof winning. I think he will get a good enough pace, and unlike a previous comment, I don’t think he wants to have a lead, I think he wants to sit off the pace and although he may miss a kick at the end, I think this galloping type will still be there or thereabouts.
Less than 2 hours to go, and he is still 12-1 1/4 place odds with VC. I think a cast iron 6/4 return, with the outside chance of the 12-1 win if things go wrong for others…..is does happen in racing.
Good luck guys
Venture to Cognac….Well we weren’t far off the money with American Trilogy. I thought coming to the last that we were booked for fourth, which would have done nicely at 33-1, but Dougie Costello got Well Regarded up on the run in. Costello is having a real purple patch, four seconds and 3 winners in the last 4 days.
I know 5th is as good as 15th, but it somehow feels worse. Oh well.
Well with my first choice not making it to the starting tapes, I’ve gone through them again trying to find something with a bit of value.
To be honest, there isn’t anything that stands out like a sore thumb, and therefore I think it makes sense looking for something that could make the frame at a reasonable price.
American Trilogy’s last win was nearly a year ago, Feb 2011, over course and distance (or 1/2 a furlong short of). He then came out 2 weeks later at Kempton and jumped to the left far too often for his own good, and duly got well humped in a 3 horse race (albeit by Captain Chris). He ran then like a drain at the festival and was pulled up. He finished last season 2nd at Fontwell after having "declined to overtake flat" as it is recorded. Not sounding too good yet is it.
He came back out 10 Dec 2011 and finished 5th (made headway 4 out, no impression after next)Perhaps needed the race….can I make any more excuses for this horse?.
The thing is, I can remember this horse absolutely trouncing a 27 horse field by 11 lengths in the Vincent Obrien County Hurdle at the festival in 2009. I know a huge amount of trust is needed to hope he still retains some of that level of ability, but at 8yrs I’m not sure he is ready for the knackers yard just yet.
Paul Nichols has indicated, in his Betfair column, that he has struggled on right handed courses in the past, mentioning his run against Captain Chris last year, and that it might be that he would do better going left handed.
Well I’m not going to doubt PN, clearly he would be better going left handed, but he has brought him to the course regardless, and he has won here (only C&D winner in the race).
Maybe I’m grasping at straws here, but at 33-1 with PP, I’m not going to need much of a stake to make it worth while, so not a lot to lose. A small interest is all I would risk in this race anyway.
Best of betting luck
J17star….you may well be right, although I thought off a feather weight that he would be worth a e/w. Re the thoughts that he may be more of a stayer, the Lanzarote is 2m 5f, that’s the furthest he will have taken on. Previous runs over 2m, 2m 1f, and once 2m 3F. Perhaps the extra couple of furlongs will suit.
As it happens, I’ve been checking all morning for the prices to come out, i didn’t want to take the anti post, and at 11am bet365 are the first to price up…..looks like secret edge is missing, so it’s all academic now…oh well, back to the drawing board.
I agree, this is a hard race to feel certain about anything winning. I certainly wouldn’t take a short price on anything, but I think that Alan King’s horse, Secret Edge might just have a squeak from 1lb out of the handicap (may well be in handicap proper if a couple at the top don’t run)
He won well at Wetherby in October, and very easily at Fontwell on 6 Dec, albeit in an egg and spoon race.
He was beaten (3rd) in a good race at Chepstow on 27 Dec, but that was his first run on heavy ground and he tired at the finish. The ground at Kempton is shown as good to soft which would be ideal.
He may well have a lot more in hand as a 4 year old, and I think Alan King thinks this is a good horse, he is best priced 16-1 for the Fred Winter at the festival.
Victor Chandler and Paddy Power both have him at 16-1, others are 14’s 12’s and 11-1. He is still anti post today, so it is a chance taking him as he could be withdrawn. Tomorrow they should go non runner money back, but whether he will still be 16-1 I’m not so sure.
I think he is a stonking e/w chance.We could argue this till the cows come home……..moooooooooo!!……..sh*t…..too late.
(case closed methinks)
Accepted thisthatandother. I am happy to put this behind us.
I am off for the weekend now, I hope my small wager on Tanks For That, at Sandown tomorrow, pays for it.
Good luck
GThisthatandother, you wrote…
"I repeat that I’m sorry you are offended, but from where I am you sound a bit pompous"
and previously "BigG, you’re full of it."
Those were the sum total of those two posts, nothing is missing.I simply don’t understand people like you. Not once have I said anything personal or offensive to you. I have merely given my opinion about a horse and yet, you have to make personal demeaning comments.
Why would you go to the effort, in your latter post, of taking the time to say Sorry if you are offended……and then follow it with "you sound a bit pompous?" These are comments which have no other intention but to rile and irritate.
I have had 30 years in the police force, so having sh*t thrown is nothing new to me, I just didn’t expect to find it in a racing forum with like minded people….ie people interested in horse racing.
On horse racing I will be happy to converse and swap opinions with you, but further personal comments I will not respond to.
Thisthatandother, I have repeated myself because that is what I believe, and I have not kept repeating it except when it has been in the context of replying to someone who has further commented. You have equally repeated yourself many times making your point clear, albeit you take a different view from me….I don’t have any problem with that.
You say to me that you don’t want to fall out with anyone either. Then can I suggest that you don’t make comments like "BigG, you’re full of it".
It’s not like I have taken that comment out of context, that was the only thing you wrote.
Some people have agreed with my views on Long Run, and some have not. I have not tried to persuade anyone. As I have said, this is my viewpoint, and as I have stated in my posts more than once, my viewpoint is no better or worse than someone else’s. I thought that was what a forum was for.
Zip, I reckon there’s every chance you would not be losing out on that bet.
Reet hard, we are definitely singing from the same hymn sheet. I think his jumping at the moment is keeping him from being an absolute superstar. He never looks like falling, and as you say has such a great engine that he manages to make up for it between fences, but the ground lost and more importantly the impetus lost by not landing running, is costing him when he comes up against a horse like Kauto Star.I know I’m going to get accused of sounding like a broken record, but I don’t think Sam Waley Cohen gives the horse confidence. I think Long Run has won despite him rather than for him.
Please God, Nicky Henderson, or even the tooth fairy, let Robert and Sam Cohen see that this horse is begging for a top class jockey to ride him. I don’t wish Sam any ill will, but maybe if he had a little bout of gout on the 16th March, we might just get to see how good this horse is.
Getzippy…..many thanks for that, you are right, my response was indeed intended for thisthatandother, re the "BigG, your full of it"
Hurdygurdyman….my apologies for directing the last post at yourself, I mistakingly took it that it was a follow on from our previous posts.
Getzippy, you may well be right, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Kauto Star won the Gold Cup, he is incredible. I would be cheering for him, as I have at every Gold Cup for the past few years, if he did win.
It won’t surprise you to know that I do think that Long Run will win the Gold Cup whether or not SWC rides him, although I have made my feelings on the jockey positon pretty clear.I am so glad Kauto appears in such fine fettle, it adds spice to the Gold Cup. I would rather it was like that, than at the start of the season when, according to the bookies, it looked a one horse race.
Time will tell, but I will doff my cap if Kauto passes the line first.
JAMIEDB, you are of course right, the phrase "reports of my death are greatly exaggerated" would apply to kauto Star. Many, including myself, thought that Kauto’s best days were behind him. It’s hard to say he was as good as he ever was, but he can’t be far off it. I agree with your comments on Grands Crus, but I don’t think there is any chance of him going for the Gold Cup in any case, I think he will win the RSA Chase
Getzippy…thanks again for pointing out my misdirected post.
Hurdygurdyman
Why would you say that? I’m new to this forum, I certainly don’t want to fall out with anyone, and all I have done is give my honest opinion, which is no better than your honest opinion.
I love discussing horses, I think this is an excellent forum and I have enjoyed reading many of your and others posts on here.
That is just uncalled for.
Hello there Hurdygurdyman…and a happy new year to you.
You said…
["You’re miles off the mark mate you really are.
If the Kauto Star of today met Kauto Star Boxing Day 2009 he wouldn’t have got within 15 lengths of him."]
I have to agree with you, Kauto was 11 at this King George, and 8 in 2009. Chasers are at their peak at 8 or 9 so I wouldn’t expect him to retain the ability he had then, although he is still an amazing racehorse.
That being the case, I cannot agree with your comments below
["Long Run is most likely at the peak of his powers right now and give me the impression he’s very unlikely to get much better despite his age. For him to become as good as Kauto Star was he’s going to have to improve round about 20lbs and that is a huge ask if not impossible."]
Long Run was 6 when he ran in this years King George, and he won it last year at 5. He also won the Gold Cup at 6. Kauto Star, amazing horse that he is, won his first King George at 6 and his first Gold Cup at 7. So there is no reason to doubt that Long Run will improve over the next couple of years. The last 6year old to win the Gold Cup was Mill House in 1963.
I have to repeat again, Kauto Star is my favourite horse of all time, he is amazing, but I am being honest when I say that I think Long Run is a better horse than Kauto at the moment. Yes, as you say, jumping is the name of the game, and Kauto did indeed whip his ass fair and square. But I would ask you to be honest about one thing, if Kauto Star had been ridden by Sam Waley Cohen and Long Run had been ridden by Ruby Walsh…..who do you think would have won the race?
My point is, I think Long Run is the best chaser in the country at present. I think he has the potential to win two or three further King George’s and Gold Cup’s. He is an amazing animal, with a non professional jockey riding him. A top notch professional jockey (ie Geraghty in this case) would iron out some of the problems that Long Run shows with his jumping, give him confidence, and simply get the best out of the horse.
I am not bashing Sam, he is a very good amateur, but don’t tell me it would make no difference to put a jockey of Geraghty’s caliber on Long Run. The sad thing is that with Long Run being owned by Sam’s dad, it is unlikely that it is going to happen. From my point of view, I think this does the horse a disservice.
Like I said before, if Long Run was not owned by Robert Waley Cohen, do you think there would be any chance whatsoever that Nicky Henderson would contemplate putting Sam on the horse ahead of Geraghty. The reason he wouldn’t, is that top jockeys improve horses and win big races. Long Run has already won a King George and Gold Cup with an amateur on his back, so what could he achieve by having a better jockey on him?…..I am afraid we might never find that out.
Hello all again
thisthatandother, I couldn’t agree more with you, Kauto deserves every accolade that is given to him, he is a true equine legend. I am not trying to put Kauto down in any way, he has been my favourite horse for years. I am also not trying to put Sam Waley Cohen down, as i said previously, I think he is a very good amateur jockey.
I am not even trying to say that Long Run would certainly have beaten Kauto, even with Geraghty aboard, I most definitely have not made my mind up on that. What I was doing was voicing a concern that Long Run, or any top class racehorse for that matter, would benefit from the experience of a top jockey. With the best will in the world, I don’t think that even Sam would claim he is on the same planet as Geraghty or Walsh tactically, or when it comes to getting the best out of a horse.
Decisions at the right time, knowing when to give the horse a breather and when to push, keeping the right position in the race and god knows how many other things that God’s of the weighing room, such as Walsh and Geraghty, know better than your average professional jockey, never mind an amateur. It is not possible that these things don’t have an influence. If Long Run was trained by Nicky henderson, but not owned by Robert Waley Cohen, do you really think that Henderson would even contemplate for one second putting Cohen on the horse ahead of Geraghty.
Hurdygurgyman…I couldn’t agree more with you, we will never know if Geraghty riding the horse would have reversed the result. It’s all about opinions, and mine is no better than yours or thisthatandother, albeit slightly different. You are probably right, Ruby is wily enough to have game plan A and game plan B, just in case.
I even agree with you, to an extent, that Sam did not ride a bad race. The whole point I am making, is that Sam Waley Cohen, nice bloke and good horseman that he is, is not a Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty.
I want to make it clear, if I haven’t already, that I accept that no matter what permutation of jockey to horse I come up with, the result may not have changed one bit. Can you not maybe accept that with the addition of a senior professional jockey, in this case Geraghty, that the horse may just benefit. Without changing things we will never know.
I think Sam is a very good amateur riding an exceptional horse. I thing Long Run deserves better.
I know I’m in the minority here, and I’m expecting the flack I’ve already seen dished out, but none the less I can only say it as I see it.
Firstly let me say that Kauto Star is magnificent, as good a horse as I have seen, I totally love him. That being said, in the King George I do believe that with Barry Geraghty on Long Run’s back yesterday, the result would be different.
Sam Waley Cohen is a very good amateur jockey, and that is exactly what he is ….. a very good "amateur" jockey. I think tactically he was caught out when Ruby decided to go earlier than he might normally, and although Long Run didn’t crash through any fences, he jumped a good few awkwardly and didn’t "ping" many. He also did not seem to be traveling well at times and for a good deal of the race he kept wide rather than tucking in.
Now even with all that, Long Run was only beaten 1 1/4 lengths. Can anyone here honestly say that with Barry Geraghty on his back, it would not have made 1 1/4 difference.
I believe it would, and today we would have been talking of the new King on the block, instead of suggestions that Long Run only won last years Gold Cup and King George because Kauto Star was not at his best. Remember that when Long Run won the Gold Cup, he did beat a few other horses too, the same type of horses that Kauto beat in his Gold Cup wins.
I know I am going to get shot down here, but I think Long Run is at present a better horse than Kauto Star, and I think that he could well be as good as Kauto has been over the years. You have to consider that Kauto Star won his first King George and Gold Cup at 7years. Long Run is still 6 and has already won a King George and a Gold Cup.
If I could ask for one belated Christmas present, it would be that Nicky Henderson pleads with Robert Waley Cohen to let a professional jockey,ie Barry Geraghty, take the reins on Long Run from now on.
Ok….fire away
Hello all…..my first post on here (so be gentle with me)
I have to say that I am impressed with the standard of the reports on here, this looks like the most professional racing forum I have been on.
So that being said, here’s my tuppence worth. I’m afraid it’s not very original, but I can’t see anything getting near Long Run. Now I accept that he ploughed through more than a few fences in the Betfair, and did not look as sharp as Kauto regardless of that. Paul Nichols made it clear that this was the first time he trained Kauto Star for the race, it was always a stepping stone towards the King George.
Nicky Henderson also made it clear that although Long Run was fit, he had left a bit to do with him, as he was being aimed at the King George and Gold Cup.
Kauto Star is a legend, absolutely no doubt. On his day he is still a force to be reckoned, but on his day at 11 and Long Run on his day at 6, I think there is only one winner. Even with his faults, Long Run managed to win the King George and Gold Cup last year. No horse does that without being an exceptional horse. I know excuses, perhaps fairly, were put up for Kauto Star last year, but he wasn’t the only horse in those races and Long Run trounced them on both occasions.
I know they are still working on his jumping, he is untidy, but even so he has never looked like falling, and never has. I do remember emailing into Mark Chapman in the box at attheraces, voicing concerns over Sam Waley-Cohen before the Gold cup, I said then that I would rather see Barry Geraghty on him, I still would. It’s not that Sam is not a good horseman, he is, but I feel the horse would benefit from a great jockey like Geraghty.
So, even with Sam aboard and even with his sketchy jumping at times, I still think he is the best horse by a good way. I dare say the King George will either make me look very wise…..or a complete plonker. Either way, I can’t wait for it.
Have a merry Christmas all
