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I certainly know how you feel Gingertipster….I get days like that too.

Hector’s Choice ran a good race, and looked to be the most likely winner at one point, until thumping the 3rd last. Certainly stopped his momentum but not sure it would have made a difference with the result.

A case of close….but no cigar.

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Peter H wrote….

Really happy with Black Apalachi’s run today. Stayed on very impressively from the rear, showing that the further they go the better he gets. Still has plenty of spirit despite his age and regardless of what the trainer may think; 11-3 is a very nice weight for a horse who after today’s performance should be carrying a lot more. Got 50’s on him. He’s now down to 33’s, so i’m happy with that.

I’d love to see him do well in it Peter, I had him in 2009 when I felt hard done by when he unseated, traveling really well, and 2010 when I thought with a couple to go he would win it.

I watched the re-run of the Fairyhouse race on ATT, and he stayed on well against PDB, at level weights. He will be giving him 11lbs in the National and that takes a bit of turning around on form, although I accept this was his first race back after an absence of nearly 2 years. Certainly an excellent prep race for the National and we know he takes to Aintree very well. Although PDB did nothing wrong winning the John Smith’s there last year.

My main concern is his age, I think Black Apalachi is a cracking National horse, and I think he’s a little unlucky he hasn’t won it, but I have reservations about him doing it at 13. I’m not saying he won’t, he looked well in his prep race, but you have to go back to 1923 to find the last winner of the race at 13years old (Sergeant Murphy)

I’m going give him a miss this year, but I do hope for your sake that I am wrong. Best of luck

Incidentally, there is still plenty of 50-1 about.

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Most of the way round the last circuit, I thought that my money looked good on Posh Bird, he was traveling so well just behind the front runners.

I kind of wish Brian Hughes had waited a little longer with him rather than sending him home from the second last. It might have made little difference, but it might not have let Portrait King have the chance of coming back at him.

I’m not having a go at him (Hughes), if he had come clear after going on 2 out, I would have been saying he rode the perfect race, but I think he maybe burned the juice up just a little too early. Hats off to the winner and Denis O’Regan who is riding out of his skin at the moment.

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Eclipse First…..well done my friend, you’re assessment was spot on. I didn’t see Nacarat coming back to the form he had shown a year ago….but he did that and more. I hold my hands up when I get it wrong.

Grey Dolphin wrote…

My ew bet Consigliere just couldn’t go the pace on that ground but plugged on for 4th.

I was with you in hoping Consigliere would do us both a turn, but I view his running slightly differently. It’s not that he couldn’t go the pace, it’s more that his jumping was sloppy after the first few fences, and before the halfway mark, it was as bad as I’ve seen him in that he was losing ground at fences around that time of the race. He fell away tamely and I stopped looking for him, I was so sure he was out of it and I half expected he may get pulled up. I was astonished at the end to see him running into 4th place.

Nacarat back to his best, I don’t think it would have made any difference to the result (the winner) but if he hadn’t had a really poor patch, which he is not normally guilty of, he would have been a good deal closer.

I think the one thing to take from his run, other than he will need to sort out the ropey jumping, is that he does get 3m on good ground. To be running on at the end, after losing his place so badly, means I will be giving him another chance.

He ran well in the Byrne Group Plate at the festival last year, 4th behind 3 horses all of whom he was giving 1st 4lbs to. Whatever he runs in this year, he might be worth an e/w as he will be a good price (presently over 25-1 in all 4 he’s entered in).
So do we give him another chance?

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Rich 1985 wrote…..

True he handled it OK that day and ran well but apart from that all his form, including most recently, has been on soft. He may be tapped for toe against some of these I feel.

Re. Nacarat – I for one won’t be writing him off just yet, was only April last year when he won last and has faced some stiff opposition since – granted he should’ve been more competitive in that Listed Chase at Aintree in December but that was on heavy ground. A return to Kempton on better ground may rejuvenate him.

Yep I take your point Rich, if it was softer I would be easier making a case for him. I feel in his last couple of races he has shown improvement, maybe it’s just me but I think he looks a better horse this year. If I’m right, he is well in on 11st 1lb. I know it’s all relative to who is running, but you have to go back some time for him carrying that kind of weight.

If I’m putting 2 and 2 together, and getting 5, I will happily hold my hands up after the race if he starts running on the spot before the last. But, you pays your money etc etc.

The Young Fella wrote….

This race gets so brutal at the finish, which is quite unique for Kempton. Remember Simon walking home, Razor Royale and Nacarat out on their feet and slow motion finishes of years past. It takes a strong stayer to win The Racing Post Chase. With this in mind, I still find it hard to warm to Consigliere since he has dogged it plenty of times in a battle.

Again, I take your point, he has disapointed in the past, but as I said to Rich, I think he has shown a bit more grit of late and is a better horse.

I seem to be singing this horse’s praises here…..I wish to point out before anyone insinuates otherwise, I have never had a relationship with this horse, I have never bought him polo mints, and we have never even held hooves……and the photographs are fake !!!

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Rich 1985 said…….

I can’t see Consigliere winning to be honest, not good enough IMO. Needs really soft ground in my view and that definitely won’t be the case tomorrow. POS, Nacarat and MLB to fight it out, with POS just coming out on top.

I’m not disputing he likes it soft, but he ran a cracking race on genuine good ground last year at the festival, giving oodles of weight to everything in the race bar Tatenen, before he weakened at the last, finishing 4th….giving 1st 4lbs to each of the three horse that finished in front of him. I think he will handle the ground ok.

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I’ve just checked, and the 14-1 for Consigliere has gone (at 1827 with Boyles) Now best priced 12-1….still value I think.

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Eclipse First wrote…..

In any handicap where it appears that there is dearth of quality it usually pays to look at the top end of the handicap. Having liked Planet of Sound on the same principle in the Hennessy, and Deep Purple for his handicap debut at Sandown, Nacarat strikes me as the most likely winner. Plenty of class and a tremendous record in the race, whereas the other two are more likely to be using it as prep race for the National.

I wouldn’t disagree with your reasoning here. He has a great record in the race, winning in 2009 and placed in both other races and often the class horses win from the top end. But I can’t have any of the three "class" horses in this race.

Planet of Sound, good horse that he is, hasn’t won for two years.

Deep Purple did indeed win his last race, but that was first win in over two years, and it was over 3m 5 1/2 f. I think he needs extreme distances to be at his best now, and I think he will be running on but too late over a sharp 3m at Kempton.

Nacarat has been a really nice horse, but since winning last April at Aintree, he simply has not looked the same horse. In the four races he has had since then, he has not only been beaten, but he was last (of the finishers) in three out of four, and beaten a total of 141 lengths

Guiness Gold Cup at punchestown….last of four finishers….beaten 45lenghts
In the Charlie Hall….4th, ….beaten 33 lengths
At Aintree in Dec….last of 3 finishers ….beaten 22 lengths
In the King George…last of 5 finishers…..beaten 41 lengths

I do take your point that Nacarat has been a top class horse, but it would take a giant leap of faith in expecting him to bounce back to form. Not one I’m about to make.

As I posted earlier, I think Consigliere has been frustrating in the past, but he seems to be showing himself as an improved horse. One firm still going 14-1, I think that is overly generous.

Best of luck anyway Eclipse.

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The Young Fella wrote…

It is unoriginal but I cannot see past Planet Of Sound now. He ran well in The Arkle and was a leading Ryanair contender a few seasons ago so I cannot see the sharp track inconveniencing him. I think he has plenty of speed. POS is still on the same mark that saw him run second in The Hennessy.

I like Consigliere but think he finishes too weakly. This race turns quite grisly at the end most years, so it is not one for a dog like him. Nacarat should run well into the places again but isn’t well treated enough to win. Michel Le Bon is also interesting but I couldn’t back a Paul Nicholls runner with confidence yet.

I agree that Planet of Sound has a very good chance, his 2nd to Carruthers, giving nearly a stone to him, in the Hennessy was impressive.

I also know what you mean with Consigliere, he has in the past petered out a bit at the end of some of his races, but as you know from my previous post, I fancy him for this. My reasoning is that I believe as he has got older, he finishes a bit better now. Two races back, admittedly over 2m5f at Wincanton, he won with his head in his chest and eased down. In the Peter Marsh last time, he did fade, but only in the last few yards, and that was after 3m on heavy at Haydock. I think 3m at Kempton, a sharper track, and on good ground, will not cause him any problems.

He has always threatened to be a very good horse, but just fell short. I think at 9yrs, David Pipe is now getting the best out of him. I can see him winning this and doing well at Cheltenham, where he has got 4 entries….not sure which he would head for, maybe the Coral Cup or the Byrne Plate.

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Venjee….

Anybody got any views on Consigliere (FR)
I’m thinking if the race cuts up and there is 10 or less runners he might have a squeak!
The only problem is he has’nt won over 3 miles although he did run quite well in the Peter Marsh on heavy ground.

I am with you on this one Venjee. I wouldn’t worry about not getting the distance, he was traveling well throughout the race, and only tired after the last on the run in, and that was on heavy ground. Kempton on good ground is going to suit him well I think.

On his previous run at Wincanton over 2m5f, he could have won it pulling a cart and was eased down with a lot still in the tank.

He is still 16s with Stan James, 14s generally. Coral’s have been ducking him since their book opened. Was 10s (when others were 20s)and now out to 12s. I don’t know who the Coral’s compiler is, but I’ve noticed he, or they, often gets it right. A lot of good signs for him. I’m having the 16s.

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Abor Supreme, if he were to come back to his best (aimed at 2 Grand Nationals by Willie Mullins…odds on the day 16-1 and 20-1) even carrying 11st12 would have a live chance, but his runnings of late do not suggest he is at his best….not for me.

Mister marker beat Posh Bird last time out over 3m1f at Ayr. Not a lot in it at the end (1/2 length) and MM is 2lbs worse off now. He was also well beaten by Eyre Square in the Borders National in the race before, and is 5lbs worse off with Eyre Square. Too much against him….not for me.

Eyre Square, as mentioned, won the Borders national over 4m, so no problem with the trip here. He had Captain Americo well beaten (16 lengths) and although CA is 6lb better with him, and CA did run a good race behind Bold Ranson at Haydock last time, I don’t think the 6lb’s will turn it around for him….Eyre Square a strong contender.

Drybrook Bedouin won the Deven marathon over 4m at Exeter in Dec, but ran an absolute stinker next time out at Wincanton and was tailed off……definitely not for me.

Victory Gunner is a horse I’ve always liked, and he can throw in some very good performances (I like him because I’ve made a few quid from him). Even so, I’m not having him win this at 14 against a competitive field

So my money is going the way of Posh Bird. She won the North Yorkshire Grand National over 3m6f really well in Jan, and followed up with a good looking performance, running on very well, when beaten 1/2 a length behind Mister Marker over 3m1f at Ayr. 9-1 being offered and I think that looks decent value.

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Point taken Zarkava, its going to be an interesting race. After Little Josh’s antics at the weekend, I’ll settle for just getting there at this moment.

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I’m with you on this one Pants, I bet him well before last years GC and I’ve done so again. I think he will win the GC this year, and probably next year too.

I know there are plenty here who will be queuing up to laugh there socks off at me, but I can’t for the life of me understand why people are so against this horse. Maybe once he has won the GC again, they might just accept that he is a very good race horse.

My only concern, and I’ve mentioned it many times is SWC. Decent jockey as he is, I would prefer a top class professional jockey. I think the horse has won despite him, rather that for him. However I think Long Run will be good enough, even with SWC on him. Time will tell.

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I’m not sure if I’ve come unstuck or not. As I posted earlier, I really think Little Josh has a very good chance in the Ryanair.

I bagged the 25s after his run in the Argento behind Midnight Chase. He looked to be coming back to his best, just tiring at the end as if he needed the run. Travelled really well, and having won the Paddy Power at Cheltenham we know he likes the course.

Blow me, he comes out at the weekend in the Betfair at Ascot and looked like a horse that was unhappy, lost his place quickly and Sam Twyston-Davies pulled him up. I knew before the race that he didn’t like running right handed, so I was surprised at the Ascot entry. I wondered if something was wrong with the horse, but I see that STD said on twitter (there’s a link for NTD’s site) "he is ok wasn’t himself so looked after him". Not quite sure what to make of that.

Anyway my money is down so not much I can do about it. The betting market is odd…..on Saturday Betfred and Tote cut him to 16-1 (both still 16s). Most stay about 20 or 25s……but VC, who I took the 25s with, has pushed him out to 50-1.

I’m hoping he is back to his old self come Cheltenham and runs like he has done before at the track. If he does, that 50-1 is awful big.

Any thoughts?

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That is indeed a very good offer GDC. I do have an account with PP, and put it on when I saw the 1st 5 being offered. If I had spotted Bet365’s offer I would have considered opening an account with them…..thanks for the heads up there.

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Pretty open race and if Zarkandar is as good as he should be, if he is to be considered for the Champion Hurdle, he should win this. I’m not so sure of that so I have decided to look for something with a bit of value and take advantage of Paddy Power’s 5 places.

I think Desert Cry fits that bill. He ran a pretty decent race behind Celestial halo in the Champion Hurdle trial at Haydock last month and previous to that he ran well, giving lumps of weight to everything, in a decent race at Musselburgh. He finished 5th (beaten 4 lengths) there behind Palawi, giving a stone to all 4 in front of him and keeping on at the finish.

I know this is a much tougher race, but racing off 10st7lbs will be new to him, he has always carried over 11st in all his races, except the Ladbroke (10st10lbs). I know weight is all relative, but I just get the feeling he might have a bit more to come. It is just a gut feeling, and I guess that’s why he is 40-1, but I’m having a bit of it.

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Bozlike…..

Post-weights, I’ve narrowed it down to Junior, Chicago Grey, Planet Of Sound and Cappa Bleu.

Good luck picking the winner, you would have a good shout with those four. I’ve kind of lost faith a little in Planet of sound, I thought a couple of seasons ago, after winning the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown, that he looked like he was going to be very good. He hasn’t quite lived up to that although he did put up a good run behind Carruthers last time.

Of your four, I will be having a bit on Chicago Grey. We know he should get the distance after winning the festival amateurs race over 4m last year. It’s unlikely, but I would love to see Derek O’Connor get the ride. I think he is not just the best amateur on the go, I think he is also a top notch jockey. He knows how to slowly put a horse into a race, that is going to be invaluable for him in the national. Most likely going to be Carberry or Condon on him.

I’ve already put my case for le Beau Bai, he’s obviously not everybody’s cup of tea, but I think this race might play to his strengths. I hope he goes well in the trial on Saturday at Haydock. There seems to be more money rolling on him, he’s down to 6-1 (5s in places)

Best of luck with those, unfortunately it looks like a national that you could pick ten horses, and not have a place. I suppose that makes it all the more interesting…..and harder

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