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The year before that I had my biggest bet of the festival (Boston Bob) fall at the last – after you’d tipped him up earlier in the season. And last year my biggest bet was an acca on the first day Mullins horses which was declined by Ruby and Annie.
3 years on the trot I feel I’ve been hard done by at the festival but it hasn’t knocked my love for the game or the beautiful festival. If anything it makes me more determined. I’m going to hit a big enough one soon. Persistence is key!
I remember that Gord, you’d been confidend throughout the season with My Tent or Yours and rightly so! After winning the Betfair I too thought he was a sure thing, backed him myself and thought he’d got it in the bag before being outbattled.
I had a somewhat similar situation 2 years ago, had about £100 worth of accas on Bobs Worth for the Gold Cup to return £2500 and £50 worth of accas on Annie Power for the World Hurdle to return £1500. Though not in play I was seriously contemplating laying both for around a grand profit but thought ‘one of them has to win so I’ll just let them ride, they even both could and I’ll be laughing’
Obviously it wasn’t to be, Bobs Worth 4th in one of the strangest Gold Cups to date and Annie Power being undone by Jonjo and his unexposed one……who by the way should be the winner of the RSA if he’s allowed to run in it!
I don’t blame you for sticking to your rules on here, know all about losing runs, there are some days/weeks where no matter what you back (in all sports) it finds a way to lose, it’s days like these when you could swear luck was a real thing because 2 months later I do a bunch of bets that should never win but somehow do. It’s a game of chance and risk taking and lowering the effects of ‘bad luck’ can only prove profitable in the long term even if you do miss out on a big payday every now and again.
In-play betting is a good thing, didn’t do it as much as I’d have liked this year, do you do it more for the jumps or flat? I often find good value can be had in a soft/heavy jumps race where in the final half mile the ‘pushed along’ horse keeps on finding compared to bridle job that ends up going backwards once it feels the whip.
I remember your bet a couple of weeks ago on Top Gamble being a good example of a horse becoming good value due to shortening, like you said the stable correctly thinking it was now back to its best or at least near to it. It was you that first got me into looking at trainer form and I’ve used it ever since. It comes just as handy when knowing not to back a horse, often see 2-1 to evens shots where the trainer hasn’t had a winner in a couple of weeks. Just as important though is knowing the price of those horses, if a bunch of 20/1 shots have been long beaten then it’s excusable, but if they themselves were favourites then you have to raise questions.
Fair play for getting on Rooster Booster like you did! Those are the stories I like to hear putting the phone down and picking it straight back up again haha, one of the most impressive winners of the Champion Hurdle you’ll ever seen, you must have been shouting the house down when you saw him storming clear and not backpedalling!
I think so yes, think he’ll probably be more than capable of winning it too. I guess it all depends on how good Ruby is at persuading Rich to send Vautour to the Ryanair, if Vautour goes Ryanair then I reckon Valseur Lido goes Gold Cup with Willie trying for the tricast.
My instinct tells me Vautour in the Gold Cup where he’s been targeted all season, he front ran in the King George and Mullins/Rich said pre-race that he still was a bit ‘fat’ and not 100% fit, add in the extra fitness and I can see him having a great chance of staying the Gold Cup trip, at least enough of a chance for it to be worth trying.
What are your thoughts on it?
Just seen the Min/Douvan/Un De Sceaux/Vroom Vroom Mag (mares hurdle) is around 9/1 for the first day 4-fold. Nice 100 on that to return a grand seems too easy! Only risk in that bet I see is Min in the Supreme and for me that’s an easy cover with Yorkhill if he runs.
I don’t blame you for watching it infront of the tv! Much more relaxing than being swarmed by 60,000 Irish all claiming to be Willies mate with inside info. But I do love the sound of that roar when one of his gets up (Douvan last year had to be the highlight for me) and though gutting, the groan from the crowd when Annie fell was something I’ve never felt before and something I’ll never forget, been to too many sporting events to name from NFL to footy to boxing but I’ve never experienced a crowd sound so disappointed. When at a footie match and the away team scores it goes mostly silent, but when Annie fell it was literally tens of thousands of people going “OHHHH NOO” quite a remarkable site and never had losing money been so acoustic.
Would have been handy had I been in your shoes in that instance, laying the mare as she came round the final bend. But knowing me I’d have let the jolly ride!
Out of curiosity you going this year Gord? Will be there on the Tuesday cheering home the Mullins battalion!
Gone off Theatre Guide, just think he was well handicapped at Kempton and clearly fit enough to capitalize on it. Ran no sort of race in this race last year while having a slightly lower rating than he will this time around. When you look at his form it’s not a massive surprise he bolted up at Kempton off 139 and at 9 years old I don’t think he’s the improving handicap horse you want for this race.
Hadrians Approach though interesting has always been too much hype and no substance for me.
Ginge do you ever just think “screw it” and go a bit mental and throw a massive bet on a horse that you don’t mention on here? Have big admiration for your discipline but surely there must be some times after you’ve had a nice win or it’s during Cheltemnhan or Ascot or whatever and you lump a silly amount on that is way above your (around) 100point maximum?
Not bothered about aftertiming and would love to hear crazy stories from over the years…….or maybe you really are as strict as a Victorian teacher with your rules.
Ballybeen – I noticed that too, but I often see that paddypower go against the majority of bookies when it comes to shortening/drifting a horse in situations like this, I just put it down to them having more bullish traders rather than inside info, but what would I know.
Always thought Yorkill in the Neptune made the most sense as he’d be the only danger (imo) to Yanworth and could very well beat him, but he has looked good enough to win a Supreme too. Wonder when these bloody trainers are going to put us out of our misery, it’s painful!
Can’t speak for the man myself but **** it I love the confidence, when it wins I’m sure he won’t be too gutted he missed out on a few extra bob!
And Zarkava I saw that, on the bf forum someone quoted Mullins as saying “”I don’t think he’s [Min] as good as Douvan & it’s hard to think he’s as good as Vautour.” but didn’t post a link to the quote so can’t source it. Slightly concerining but he wouldn’t need to be as good as either of those to win the Supreme and Mullins could well be talking sh*t anyway.
Good shout Boz Fingal Bay certainly is well handicapped to say the least! Won at the festival over 3m last year.
God these Cheltenham handicaps are a nightmare, so many good horses that are potentially well handicapped, could back half of the fields in most of the hcap races!
Bigzeb that’s a nice one you’ve pointed out there, if he gets a lenient-enough weight then I’ll seriously consider backing him, for all we know the horse could have improved but with the injuries it’s easy to be sceptical which is why I wouldn’t be keen to have him if he’s got a fair weight.
Maurice yes Theatre Guide was very impressive, reminded me of Smad Place in the Hennessey! Agreed that a 10lbs raise wouldn’t put me off him, could well be more to come and he may not even have been 100% tuned up for that run.
Another interesting one is Out Sam for Greatrex, two very easy wins and is going to a handicap so it could well be this one.
Given it was his first run in the UK I’d say so, think Nicky said there would be more to come from him, just depends whether Henderson can get him 100% fit in time, probably being cynical but my faith/trust in Henderson to get a horse primed has dwindled over the last year or two.
Then again he had the first 3 home in the Triumph last year so who am I to doubt him!
Betfairs been a bit weird recently with horses moving, probably happens more often than most this time of year with people trying to hedge/lay bets they’ve put on some time in advance. Often when one person starts laying a horse others follow suit, just look at Mins drift a week or two ago. Haven’t heard about anything being amiss with him, I’d hazard a guess it’s just the market evening itself out. Or maybe those that wanted to back him for the RSA already have and thus don’t need to back him any more?
Very impressed with Zubayr, big price tag he fetched for so they knew the potential/talent was there. Nichols is good in this race when he has a good’n so that’s another plus. I just think he was visually impressive in victory, got a little caught out in the final 3/4 of a mile but kept going, jumped well enough and got up to the leaders and won going away. He looked like a horse with a real amount of speed and I see him as the type to do well up the hill. I’ll be backing him as I can see him improving a fair amount between his win and the Triumph.
Corm that’s all I needed to know! Was put off earlier in the season by Rich saying Min wasn’t good value, thought he was trying to hint the horse wasn’t all it had been hyped up to be but I think he was just trying to play the part of a shrewd punter. It was Mullins bullishness about Vautour 2 years ago and Douvan last year that made me so confident in them (let alone how impressive Douvan looked winning over hurdles in Ireland before Cheltenham).
Will no doubt be going big on Min.
