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I think this years Gold Cup is very much going to depend on the ground. Its not going to take a Denman 2008 performance to win this years race. Denman I just cannot see retuning to his best in just five weeks. Its going to take a low 170’s / high 160’s performance to win this year IMO.
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Would he have to be at his best to win if Kauto Star doesn’t perform?
I wold rather be on Denman 95% fit than most of the others who are a 10lbs and more behind him.
I have always been in Kauto Star’s camp but he can root a couple of fences a anytime.
Madison Du Berlais has never ran well at Cheltenham in 5 outings. I was very impressed by he way he travelled at Kempton but his defeat of Air Force One getting weight and his previous record, is a long way off Gold Cup form.
Neptune Collonges get the trip but was flattered last year IMO but the fact remains he is a good horse. He doesn’t seem to have improved though and looked beaten when he fell in Exotic Dancer’s race. Of the two I prefer the waiting tactics used by McCoy to see him come out on top.
Albertas Run will only be a force if the ground rides good or better and I can’t see that being the case.
Barber’s Shop goes straight to the Gold Cup. His ability has been blown way out of proportion by everyone except his trainer and he has little or no chance of making the frame. Not unless Nicky Henderson has Master Minded a PN style second coming and isn’t telling.
Notre Pere is a bit of a dark horse who will stay the trip but his traget is the National. Could be worth an EW bet to pick a place up late on at best.
I can’t see past Kauto Star Denman Exotic Dancer and Neptune Collonges and see no reason why they wouldn’t send the horse even if he was oly 95% right. Another run certainly won’t so him any harm.
Would love to back his 3000 winner but I am taking a gamble and waiting until tomorrow when he rides one for Hen Knight.
Harry Findlay said before the race he wasn’t backing him. He went to the pub wih Sam Thomas and didn’t even bother going to Kempton.
I think that’s enough to tell anyone he knew the horse wasn’t fit, would badly need the race and wasn’t going to win. I really believe it is that simple.
Of course I really don’t know if there is anything seriously wrong with the horse, but if you run any horse up front for 2 miles at the speed they were travellng and any unfit horse will fold like a pack of cards.
On the other hand if he was totally fit but had shown them he wasn’t himself or ill in anyway, would PN have run him?. The vet/medical team would surely have been dead against it considering his previous illness.
The important thing is they got a run into him and he’s fine and until the announce differently the rest is pure misguided guesswork.
Though we were all guilty of criticising her at one time or another, doesn’t this show again what a feat it was for Hen Knight to get Best Mate to win three Gold Cups- I have my doubts if I’ll see that again in my lifetime in today’s age of highly competitive racing.
I agree with you entirely. They were by no means great Gold Cups but to get him there in one piece and actually win three? Amazing.
What could be even more amazing is if Kuato Star can regain the Gold Cup. Add that to 3 King George’s. Could there even be a 4th?
I doubt if any if us will be around to see that happen again if he pulls it off.
Only a matter of time before Denman is also scratched from this year’s Gold Cup.
I totally agree, the signs are not very positive. The horse gave everything last year I think he just wants an easy life now, kick back relax and to be pamperd.
Doubt if PN would agree there
We can’t always believe what we read nor can we be expected to know everything that is happening behind the scenes.
If we can take PN’s word for it Denman has come out of the race OK and there aim is to concentrate on getting him ready for the Gold Cup.
The fact he have scratched him from his years National is a little surprising.
The amount of work they will have to put into the horse, to get him right, between now and March is probably as much as they want to do with him this season. If he comes round and actually gets to Cheltenham then he can put him away until next year.
If he doesn’t make it then agian he will put him awa to fight another day.
I think they will do everything in their power to get him as fit as they possibly can. If he is only 95% right they have to and probably will run him.
Findlay and Barber are convinced Denman is the best in the country and I wouldn’t want to try and tell them their horse needs to be 100% fit to win the Gold Cup.
They would be he first to point out Kauto Star could jump his way out of the race and there is no guarantee Neptune Collonges will reapeat his good run of last year.
I hope he continues to show no ill effects of his heart trouble and we see the old Denman back and fighting for his crown come March.
Not more ‘if horse x was taken out of the race, horse y would have won easily’ nonsense. The fact is the Pipe horse did run and made Denman look distinctly ordinary in the process. Far more laughable than suggesting that the runner-up is past his best is the assumption that Saturday’s finishing distances were in any way representative of the horses’ relative abilities.
I apologies if making a valid point offended you and you think my post was nonsense.
I did say if the Pipe horse had not run then punters would believe Denman was as good as ever. I was not suggesting for one minute anyone ignore the fact he hammered Denman.
If you disagree with the point I made by all means say so but please don’t put words into my mouth.
Difficult to draw any positives from Denman’s run. For one who is normally such a strong and resolute galloper his emptying out in the straight was particularly alarming; not what you’d expect of a Denman ‘in need of the run’, more a Denman who isn’t himself at all.
TV pictures tell lies but IMO neither his appearance (musculature) nor his body-language before and during the race impressed at all.
As such I would side with those who believe he won’t – or shouldn’t – run again this season, though I wouldn’t go so far as TDK’s "finished" just yet.
As for Madison du Berlais, well I’m prepared to believe he’s improved some more on what is a generally progressive profile but an RPR of 176 seems plainly absurd, as he had the run of the race and saw off a poorly Denman, a jonjoed Albertas Run, a 130s handicapper in Niche Market, an injured Joe Lively, and a has-been in Trabolgan.
163 tops MDB: admirable though you are, the Hennessy was your Gold Cup.
I am just wondering what those who seem to be writing him off or advising he should be left in his box
would be saying had the Pipe horse not run.
At a guess his 25 lengths victory over Albertas Run would have them doing handstands and saying he was a certainty for a repeat.
As Alberta’s Run deplores soft ground in affect he would have beaten nothing but that would have gone over the top of most people’s heads and it would be "Denman is back"
As we all know there are two ways to get a horse fit. One is to give him lots of strong work at home the second is to bring him along slowly and give him a run or two to bring him to his peak.
330 days off under constant supervision and advice by vets has Nicholls chosen the latter method? Would seem the sensible way to go especially if that is what the medical advice was.
If we wrote of every horse who had the minor heart problem he had or every horse who didn’t run to form we would be as well shutting up shop and going home.
It is far from unusual for horses to make complete fools of us all. One or two bad runs in a good horss career is par for the course especially afer a set back.
As an example the jonjoed (to use your very odd phrase) Exotic Dancer finished 20 odd lengths behind Neptune Collonges in last years Gold Cup. We all know what happened next.
Denman finished? Laughable in my opinion,
This has echoes of Kauto Star after his fall when he may or may have not won against lowly opposition.
Denman won the Henessy first time out but was trained to the minute.
He’s run moderately after a very long lay off which is not unusual and after all it is the Gold Cup that is his main target.
After this run why would he not be ready in time it’s almost 5 weeks away?
I sincerely doubt if his minor heart problem would be responsible for the run. Much more likely he needed it badly as they wouldn’t be exactly rushing him along.
I think they know exactly what they are doing and Mr. Nicholls will announce about 2 weeks before the Gold Cup Denman has done fantastically well and he will run.
Sort of par for the course with him these days.
This has echoes of Kauto Star after his fall when he may or may have not won against lowly opposition.
Denman won the Henessy first time out but was trained to the minute.
He’s run moderately after a very long lay off which is not unusual and after all it is the Gold Cup that is his main target.
After this run why would he not be ready in time it’s almost 5 weeks away?
I sincerely doubt if his minor heart problem would be responsible for the run. Much more likely he needed it badly as they wouldn’t be exactly rushing him along.
I think they know exactly what they are doing and Mr. Nicholls will announce about 2 weeks before the Gold Cup Denman has done fantastically well and he will run.
Sort of par for the course with him these days.
