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Carv
Neither Motivator or Authorized won a Guineas, nor were they considered even fast enough to run in one. While 10f would probably be RVW’s best trip, nothing in his 2 defeats behind STS suggests he has much chance of turning the tables, at any distance.
Re Conduit; he ran half-cooked, off an ordinary pace, on his seasonal debut; I’d be highly surprised if SMS can’t find at least 10lbs improvement on that form.I wouldn’t agree with that entirely Reet. I reckon RVW showed a glimps of what’s to come in the Derby when he eventually got going.
When the race eventually got started in earnest and everone was at it RVW was in front of Masterofthehorse but he passed him and went a few lengths clear of him.
I think it was then we saw what Johnny Murtagh see’s in this horse.
All too late RVW got himself together and it took him only 8 to 10 strides to all but make up the ground he had lost on Masterofthehorse.Sometimes horses can fool you at home into thinking they are more developed than they actually are. This could be the reason RVW hits this flat spot.
If the reason is he was still slightly undeveloped in the Guineas and the Derby, he could still turn out to be a very special horse.
You could just dismiss him and say he’s not good enough but personally I’d say he’s going to improve a lot with time.
It could come on Saturday or it might not come until next saeson but I believe he will turn out to be a top class horse before te end of the day.
One point is, horses that hit flat spots don’t often win when races turn into a sprint so the Derby pace probably never suited him as some people think.
The early pace of the Derby was so slow I think Radiohead would have got the trip
. Even coming down the hill they were very slow so it gave us very little idea how Sea the Stars or RVW will react to a very strong pace over this 1m2f. You would think they would both get the trip easy enough but there’s no gaurantee.As far as Conduit not having the speed at this trip Carv I’d dispute that big time. SMS has had this race in mind for him for a long time because he believe he has more than enough speed. He’s not a normal horse IMO and has a bit of the Kauto Star’s about him.I think too many people are falling into the trap and think because he won the St Leger he neeed an extreme distance to produce his turn of foot.
Having won the race 5 times I thnk SMS knows what’s required and has the right horse for the race.
I’m not concerned at all with him being 5 at Betfair We got an AOB horse and a dual classic winner there and those who knew Conduit was going for this backed him weeks ago.
I’m off to Hua Hin to do some design work on the house tomorrow for the next two weeks so I’ll only be dropping in from time to time. Staying on a deserted beach but no internet
I guess I’ll download the racing at an internet shop and burn to disc and watch on the Sunday.So good luck all
"If you resolve to give up smoking, drinking and loving, you don’t actually live longer; it just seems longer"
Clement Freud
R.I.P.
Much ado about nothing?
Now in the cold light of day let’s look at the facts.
As impressive as she looked there is no evidence pointing to the fact Fantasia is some sort of wonder filly.
Look at what she beat: The winner of a 6k Class 4 race on the all weather at a night meeting at Kempton. The third won a 4.5K class 5 maiden. The 4th a 6k all weather at lowly Wolverhampton.
That was as near to a true guineas trial as a Seller at Hamilton
All that race proved is she is fit and well and has trained on. It does not alter the fact that Ranbow View made complete mincemeat of her at Ascot.
Ask yourselves this: Would Rainbow View have beat that lot yesterday? I suggest she could have started a furlong behind them and still won.
My advice? Nice filly send her to France and don’t be wasting your time going to Newmarket where she’ll only get her ass kicked.
Oh come on TDK what kind of question is that for a bookmaker?.
If you are known to be in the know you automatically become "a face" and they give you a nickname to go with it.
You don’t have to be a loser to get money on either. I bet with Alex Farquhar (Macbet) for years among others and he was always glad to lay me and pay me out. Very often I would bet on course two hours or so before the first and you can bet your backside he never lost when I won.
In many cases with large bets comes good information and a bookie can use that to his adavantage can he not?
Carv situation is totally different I assume and if you win through your own skill contiuously your a certainty to get the boot
I am far from convinced Delegator is any sort of good thing for this race today.
He had already finished 2nd then won a maiden at Newmarket in very good style before going for the Dewhurst.
While he ran well to finish 5th the race never quite panned out the way expected with both Rip Van Winkle and Ashram finishing out the frame.
He was apparantly backward in the Dewhurst, is said to have come on a lot and apparantly did a great gallop the other day.
As a result he has attracted a lot of attention for the Guineas but he was subject to a bit of a gamble in the Dewhurst and for me this horse may have limitation to what he can actually produce on the course.
Glass Harmonium is a horse I like a lot. Sir M decided against running himin the Dewhurst last season as he was very backward. He had 3 entries this week and Sir M has decided to go for the most difficult of them. You couldn’t say he was mega impressive or showed an out of the ordinary turn of foot when going for home in his maiden.
What caught my eye was the way he travelled and had everything else well off the bridle 2 furlongs from home. I think this stiffer mile at Newmarket will suit him much better than the 7 furlongs at Yarmouth as he is out of a staying mare. No doubt Sir M will fancy his chances and if he is ridden up with the pace he could have the speedsters in trouble when they hit the rising ground.
How you are meant to work out how good Frankies mount is beats me but his odds for a horse who has won huge prizes on dirt tells me he is not expected to be good enough.
The Phantom of the Opera here is Alyarf. The furthest he has run over is 6 furlongs but no one knows better than Barry Hills what it takes to win the Craven. He had three winners yesterday and his horses seem to be jumping out there skin.
I don’t fancy evens about Delegator I think he could be overrated
Glass Harmonium I fancy could run a big race but Alyarf should get the trip and might just have that little bit more toe when push comes to shove.
Alyarf EW 8/1 is my idea of the safest bet.
In the hope I could be right about Delegator a few quid RFC on Glass Harmonium and Alyarf could pay excellent odds.
I am not a huge fan of Twice Over and said wuite clearly last season he was a false fav for the Guineas and had more chance of winning a Triumph Hurdle
That said this looks a deperate affair and should I get a close to evens it will be piggbank time. The fact Cecil has had 3 short priced favs stuffed in the last few days is a slight worry but they have all run well in defeat. If he can’t beat this lot then maybe he should go hurdling
My saver bet of the day is John Gosden’s Prohibit who is 10/1 which looks excellent ew value to me. Runs well when fresh acts on the ground and his string seem in pretty good form.
Problem is Equi it’s not up to Luca and you can bet your life she will go to France. IMHO of course
My advice for what it’s worth: Open a spate of deposit accounts if you can afford to with independant bookies that lay Hills prices?. Lot more work placing your bets but they won’t be noticed so easily. No doubt some will close your account in time but there are hundreds of them in the UK and Ireland.
Well done with Monsieur Chevalier fists, or should I call you the 2yo-conditions-race-king?
Had the third @ 40-1 but only 7 runners 
Cheers matey that will keep the wolf away from the door for the next few weeks £8.96 for the forecast was a nice bit of icing on the cake.
Even better selections from Equi though 5/4 and 8/1 winners and a 10/1 second I’m sure he will have backed EW.
Well dome mate.
Not tha many horses I followed blindly these days but What a Myth was definitely one who springs to mind. Mind you he won 6 out of 7 in one season and won the Gold Cup at a huge price.
Arcturus was another he was trained by Neville Crump and won his fair share but cost me a right few quid in the National.
Gembridge Jupiter who I lost a packet on at Doncaster when he broke a blood vessel but he paid me back 10 fold the next season.
Persian War I backed alsmost every time he ran
Kauto Star as far a I remember I have never opposed up until now and the minute someone puts up a price I back him. I have been very lucky with him and he he owes me absolutely nothing. While I have backed him at 2/1 for the King George I have taken 8/1 about Denman for the Gold Cup.
Park Top was a horse I followed and everything was great until I lost a months wages on her in the Arc.
Binocular who I won’t here of getting beaten. He’s done very very well for me and I’ll keep betting him, price being right, until such times something like Hurricane Fly kicks him into touch. That could be a very long time.
I’ve been at the races myself and been guiltyof thinking "you beauty" when something has fallen and left mines in the lead. In the heat of the moment you don’t really think about injury as most horse that fall don’t get hurt.
However if it is blatantly obvious it’s a real bad fall I agree with what you are saying. You feel like smacking them but not many punters realise the dangers of jump racing and if they sat down and thought about it or found out later a horse was fatally injured they would probably feel very guilty.
Been like that for as long as I can remember and you just have to learn to live with it.
How impressive was that ?
If Fantasia bypasses the English 1,000gns for the French equivalent, then it would be a travesty.
She’d definitely give Rainbow View a run for her money.
If Rainbow View is better than her she must be some filly and I’ve done my money already.
To be fair she beat nothing but she looked more like The Dickler than a filly. First class performance!!! There was no Rainbow View and co in that race.
The big question is will the owner run her?
According to John Gosden Rainbow View is really special and that will only have strengthened his case to put it to the owner that Rainbow View won’t be beat.
From a finacial point of view if the owner thinks hecan take both prizes and he must be very confident he can, he will ignore the cries of they must run her.
I doubt we will see her at Newmarket.
Fists, you can get 7/4 on the exchanges about Rainbow view but I agree in terms of value. I’ll be backing Shimah to win more but will still bet RV.
The only other horse who concerns me is Cuis Ghaire. I have a suspicion that her form is a lot better than it looks and whilst she’ll need decent ground she will easily get the mile on breeding. Bolger certainly seems to rate her above everything else he has and he has a few decent ones.
Not a bad policy to back two when one is very long and either can show you a profit.
I still can’t see me backing Rainbow View though. Not after what I have said about her and if I do I won’t admit it
It would seem for some reason Cashmans in Ireland see the 2000 guineas in a totally different light.
7/2 Mastercraftsmen
9/2 Rip Van Winkle
6/1 Crowded HouseThey obviously haven’t bought into Crowded House missing the guineas and are suggesting Rip Van Winkle could very well be the main hope of AOB.
Fantasia looks a mile in front of anythiing else in the race but with her trainer saying she will need the run I wouldn’t fancy backing her at odds on.
A less riskier contest looks to be the Betterbet, Bookmaker Of The Year 2009 Conditions Stakes for 2 year olds.
Normally you would expect a Brocklesby winner to be able to handle with winner of a class 6 race at Folkstone but Monsieur Chevalier looked a class above anything in his race.
He took a fair bit of time to get going and was initially done for toe but once he got going he soon got the hang of things and won very easily.
He did drift right across the course but he will have learned from that experiece.
Hearts of Fire ran on well and look more prepared for his race but there was nothing to suggest to me he would be one to follow. The race looked a bit substandard to me. Pat Eddery did say after the race he had Ascot on his mind for the horse but perhaps after today he’ll change that to Ayr
Soccer looks a real nice sort and won well enough but that looked a very weak contest as 5 of them finished pretty close together. The second did finish 2nd in the Brocklesby but that only strengthens my opinion that the Brocklesby was a pretty poor race this year. However he’s a big horse with plenty of improvement in him and Newmarket could be right up his street.
I think there will be massive confidence behind Monsieur Chevalier and I doubt vvery much if Captain Cool would be running here if they thought he could upset the applecart.
At around 6/4 hopefully Monsieur Chevalier looks a cracking bet in comparison to Fantasia at odds on.
Busting open the piggy bank for this one today who looks a bit of a good thing to me.
Monsieur Chevalier
and
Monsieur Chevalier and Soccer in a RFC.
When did you get 25/1? I backed her a while ago and didn’t get that price. I agree though.
She was 25/1 last October with blue square but at that time betfair had he up at between 24 and 64. In March she was on offer again 25/1 with Totesport but only an idiot would have taken that price as she was 33/1 with Bet365 on the same day and 29 with Betfair.
She has constantly been cut by bookmakers ss to has Sir Michael Stoutes filly and Cahsman’s and Coral’s have her at 12/1.
Not hard to look up the betting and see which horses are attracting the most attention post them on here and then say you backed them at long odds.
One day the King of Fantasy will tip a horse on the day he backs him and not hit us with aftertiming shyte like this.
Cheers Ken, actually we’ve had two great days of celebration being the Thai New Year (Songran water festival). Wouldn’t have known it was happening if it hadn’t been on the news..
Wouldn’t argue with much there mate. The man has so many good horses working together it must be almost impossible to predict how good some of them are until they get on the racecourse. Something that was reflected in the price of Henry in last years guineas.
I doubt if he overrated DOM but the punters certainly did. DOM was a decent horse but by pure chance he won six Group 1’s that can only be described as moderate. I think I am right in saying not one horse that finished 2nd to him went on to win next time out which is unusual to say the least.
Personally I never gave him a hope in hell of winning the Arc and I doubt if OAB did either.
