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Just read that Samcro has had a wind op. Here’s the quote from Gordon Elliott:
“Samcro has an entry, but if he goes to Cheltenham, it will be for the Marsh Novices’ Chase.
He has had a wind operation since Limerick and, although we were disappointed on the day, he was beaten by a good horse.
We had problems with him last season not scoping right and he did not scope great after Limerick. He is a very hard horse to keep right.
He is working well and looks great, so we will give it a go.
I would prefer the ground to be on the better side for him.”Think that explains the blue across oddschecker.
Henderson has said that Altior will run in the Silviniaco Conte over 2m4f presumably instead of the Clarence House.
Much as it would’ve surprised me a few weeks ago I think the Ryanair may be in their thoughts so I’ll take the 14/1 now before it goes.Altior to win the Ryanair @ 14/1
So Altior doesn’t get the distance. May try the King George but surely doesn’t win it, so I still can’t see any other option than they go back to the CC.
Some pretty dodgy jumping from Douvan but the engine is still definitely there. Will surely only get better between now and March as long as no injuries.
Sometimes the most obvious answers are right in front of your face, which leads me nicely to Altior @ 5/1 to win the Champion Chase.
Now I know it’s not the most original selection but surely the 5/1 is about double what the price should be?
I can only really see Altior running in either the Champion Chase or the Gold Cup. Although the distance seems perfect, the Ryanair just isn’t prestigious enough for a horse of Altior’s calibre. So let’s start with the gold cup.
Firstly, it seems like an excellent standard of opposition this season with the top 5 in the betting all boasting strong claims. Not that I think Altior’s team would shy away from that but it would surely have to be in the mindset when deciding on their Cheltenham target. Secondly, and the big one for me, to go from the 2m CC straight up to the 3m 2f plus of the GC in a season would be asking an awful lot. It would take a mightily impressive King George performance for me to believe stamina issues wouldn’t be a problem in a GC and even then the King George suits certain horses who excel at a flat 3 miles (I’m thinking Silviniaco Conte, Might Bite, Thistlecrack) but that doesn’t necessarily translate to the gold cup and I think Altior falls into this category. And that’s based on Altior winning the King George which is by no means a certainty.
In the event that being raised in distance doesn’t work out what would the alternative be? For me the only realistic option left would be the CC and with Chacun Pour Soi looking the only realistic major threat surely that makes the 5/1 too big to ignore?I’ve always been a huge fan of Douvan and he’s due to run today at Clonmel. Any type of decent performance and the 33/1 for the Ryanair will be a distant memory so I’m getting in while the getting is good. The Ryanair distance seems ideal to me and if he’s properly back and wins well he’ll drop to single figures imo.
Douvan to win the Ryanair @ 33/1
Surely the diamond jubilee is a couple of furlongs too short? Like you say the Queen Anne seems closer to the mark.
Found received 3lb from Postponed in the Coronation Cup and an easy 4.5 length beating. I don’t know what would change in the Arc off level weights. For me, Found’s performance yesterday strengthens Postponed’s position as favorite.
I think we’ll know a bit more about Order of St George once the Melbourne Cup weights come out on the 13th. I personally can’t see him running in the Arc, even though he’d most likely be top weight in the Melbourne Cup.
I was on @ 14/1 before he got beaten by Mehmas so I didn’t top up but I went to the Hills website just before posting the above and it was still showing as 20/1.
Billy Hills are still going 20/1 on Blue Point for the 2000 guineas but surely not for long. Looks a cracking bet to me, especially if Caravaggio doesn’t get a mile.
I’m with Goreisking on this one, Blue Point looks very backable to me especially now there’s 9/4 to be had. This is a horse who on only his third start finished a head behind Mehmas, albeit in receipt of 3lb, but what odds would Mehmas be in this? – I’d have your arm off for 2/1.
There’s a gentleman on twitter (Adam Webb) reporting that Acapulco has been withdrawn from the Nunthorpe. I can’t see any market movement to support it though.
My thinking about him being unbackable is that he’s 4/1 favorite yet is remaining at 6f and AOB has cast doubt a couple of times about him getting a mile. There’s a winter to get through yet and other horses to improve so 4/1 seems crazy to me, I’d want double that at least. 4/1 would be about right if he’d won well in the Dewhurst imo.
Interesting read Botchy. From that Lady Aurelia wins the Morny, Caravaggio goes to the Middle Park and is currently unbackable for the 2000 guineas.
Another one for the Lady Aurelia club. If she was mine I’d be going for the Nunthorpe and I’m in complete agreement with your thinking Steve.
I’ve also backed Yalta at 10/1 since as much as I think York is the best route for L.A. Ward may stick to the Morny, and Yalta at 10s looks decent considering the weight he’d be receiving and his impressive performance over 5f last time. Think he’ll go to less than half that when, the likelihood is, Caravaggio, Limato and Lady Aurelia are confirmed out.
