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ACAPAULCO 7/1
She ran at 2yo last year was 2nd for me she won race if was on fast ground then Meccas Angel not run in race then.She is still a top horse think she can return here go one place better.
I think Pearls Secret has a squeak in this after today race at Goodwood. Cruising in behind the leaders just as the button was going to be pressed. Nearly knocked sideways by Ryan Moore and came home just behind the leaders.
Took the 33’s PP E/W and will keep topping up every week till the race.
Talk of Limato being supplemented for this. I think he’ll be as effective over 5f as he is 6f if he jumps out like he did in the July cup.
Profitable is too short at 7/2 here.
I’ll wait later to bet but Acapulco at 7/1 is tempting. Hopefully Limato is supplemented and will be my selection if he is.
Which two-year-olds are going to rock up this year?
Caravaggio looks very special and even Prince Of Lir could have a squeak if he can bounce back from his latest run. He was the year’s fastest pre-season breezer after all.
Which two-year-olds are going to rock up this year?
Caravaggio looks very special and even Prince Of Lir could have a squeak if he can bounce back from his latest run. He was the year’s fastest pre-season breezer after all.
I believe Caravaggio is being aimed at a Group 1 two year old race in Ireland round about the same time.
Ward’s Lady Aurelia is more likely to go for the Morny in France.
Molecomb winner Yalta needs to be supplemented but Johnston in apparently keen on running. I’d be interested in him. Although the trainer’s record at York/mid August is not usually as good as Goodwood/late July, is still firing the winners in at the moment.
Can’t see Prince Of Lir being good enough.Value Is EverythingACAPAULCO 7/1
She ran at 2yo last year was 2nd for me she won race if was on fast ground then Meccas Angel not run in race then.She is still a top horse think she can return here go one place better.
Acapulco was another one of those “overly mature” two year olds the US trainer does so well with. Had all the advantages of an incredibly generous two year old weight for age allowance. She’d already grown in to her substantial frame by this time last year, so there’s likely to be little or no improvement to come at three. Ward is a two year old trainer and I’d be surprised if he can get the filly’s muscles any bigger than they were in 2015.
Hope one or two British sprinters can keep the Nun at home.Value Is EverythingI like Yalta and it seemed like they were keen to get him to the race.
He looked very fast last time and will get generous weight allowances.
I was less struck than some by Prince Of Lir at Royal Ascot and he’s not one for me. Profitable has been a good horse to me and he’ll surely be thereabouts back at his best trip after something of a fools errand at Royal Ascot, where he ran well but was at the wrong trip.
Caravaggio was said to be going to the Phoenix Stakes and it would seem odd dropping him back to 5F if they are viewing him as a Guineas horse next year.
Lady Aurelia is a hell of a price on 8/1. I think she put up a superior performance to Acapulco in the Queen Mary and we all saw the money come for that filly last year. I would be having a go if she were my filly and she would start mega short if she turned up.
Yalta 14/1 and Lady Aurelia 8/1 are the two who interest me here at this stage.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Lady Aurelia is a hell of a price on 8/1. I think she put up a superior performance to Acapulco in the Queen Mary and we all saw the money come for that filly last year. I would be having a go if she were my filly and she would start mega short if she turned up.
Yalta 14/1 and Lady Aurelia 8/1 are the two who interest me here at this stage.
That’s just it though. Lady A would be favourite IF she turns up. 8/1 is more about the chance of turning up than chance of winning. Very doubtful starter according to connections. Suspect she’ll only run if something happens to Acapulco.
Value Is EverythingI would imagine the nightmare scenario for Wesley Ward would be mud at Deauville and the 6th Furlong to contend with on that surface.
Lady Aurelia stuffed Al Johrah 7 lengths at Ascot and the runner up went on to finish 2nd to Tis Marvellous in France, this time only getting beaten 2 and a half lengths but receiving 4 lbs from Clive Cox’s horse.
With an extra furlong to travel and if it were bad ground, how would the form lines pan out?
You would think they will leave Lady Aurelia in the Nunthorpe as late as possible, since there are only two days between the races, with the York fixture on the Friday and the Deauville on the Sunday. It’s only a maybe but would possible ground concerns come into it and make a switch possible?
If Lady Aurelia were to turn up at York on quick ground, I wouldn’t be offering much better than Evens if I were a bookie.
Maybe it’s me that just has a laissez faire attitude to ante-post betting and not getting a run for my money.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yes, if it were “mud” in the Morny Steve, I’d expect a change of target if soft or heavy. It was good-soft at Ascot, albeit an extra furlong on that surface would place an added emphasis on stamina, I’d say it is probable she’ll go to France on good-soft. She’s also in the Lowther (6f) at York and suspect Ward does not want Lady Aurelia to take on Acapulco. So the ways I can foresee her going for the Nunthorpe are (a) Acapulco doesn’t make the race and Lady Aurelia is in good form, or (b) It is soft or heavy in both Yorkshire and the south of France in mid-August.
You’ve also got to consider Ward has already won a Morny and lost a Nunthorpe with two year olds going on from Royal Ascot… And that Ward/American trainers don’t usually like taking on older horses with two year olds.
Agreed, Lady Aurelia would be short if she lines up on fast or good-soft, I’d expect shorter than 2/1, I’d lay Evens.
Personally, this is the type of horse am always interested in if/once bookmakers go NRNB, even if more than halving in price.Value Is EverythingI’ve taken the plunge on Lady Aurelia at 8/1. If she doesn’t run then so be it.
Caravaggio sluiced up in the Phoenix and trainer Aidan O’Brien stated that the Prix Morny is probably his next race, followed by the Middle Park. He expanded that they are in no hurry to go 7F with him and that he is the fasted horse ever to be in the yard. That spells disaster for Dewhurst and Guineas bettors at short odds in my opinion.
Meanwhile that gives Wesley Ward the headache of whether he wants to chance his hand with Lady Aurelia over 6F against Aidan’s fastest colt, or get lumps of weight in the Nunthorpe over what is probably his filly’s best of 5F.
I know what I would be doing and if he sees it differently, he will have to risk the prospect of seeing a Scat Daddy colt going past his Scat Daddy filly in the 6th furlong.
8/1 is a massive price and as I saw with Acapulco last year, they may lose anyway so it’s part of the game if you don’t get a run.
Lady Aurelia 8/1 to win
I have sent Wesley Ward a video of Caravaggio today and noted that the colt was doing 45mph on the gallops the other week. That was in 3rd gear as well
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m worried Steve – we’re agreeing on everything lately. I think you’re right about Minding and right about Caravaggio’s Guineas prospects. Shame he won’t be going to the Nunthorpe though.
Good luck with the Lady Aurelia bet.
Hate to get in on the mutual backslapping here, but would Lady Aurelia last home if they have a rainstorm at York? Seems an out and out speedball.
I’m pretty sure she would, judgey. No worries there.
She wasn’t stopping on gluey ground over Ascot’s very stiff 5f.
Another one for the Lady Aurelia club. If she was mine I’d be going for the Nunthorpe and I’m in complete agreement with your thinking Steve.
I’ve also backed Yalta at 10/1 since as much as I think York is the best route for L.A. Ward may stick to the Morny, and Yalta at 10s looks decent considering the weight he’d be receiving and his impressive performance over 5f last time. Think he’ll go to less than half that when, the likelihood is, Caravaggio, Limato and Lady Aurelia are confirmed out.It’s by no means certain she will run but I feel Caravaggio going to the Morny makes it more likely and bookmakers seem to be ignoring that.
Caravaggio will be a tough nut to crack and I couldn’t take 4/6 Lady Aurelia for the Morny with the knowledge that the O’Brien colt may be lining up.
Bookmakers have not reacted by introducing Caravaggio into the betting for that race yet but that’s hardly surprising given their lethargy in general. If these boys were stock market traders they would be in the poor house before they got out of their farting sack in the morning.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
With Limato having other options and not a definite runner I just can’t get past GOLDREAM for this race, with conditions to suit and over his favoured 5 furlongs this speedy son of Oasis Dream and winner of last years Kings Stand and Prix de l’Abbaye looks a decent EW chance at around 14/1.
Robert Cowell has been more than patient with Goldream and thinks the world of this horse, reports from his work at home on the gallops are also very encouraging. I really believe that GOLDREAM will beat the young pretenders and come home the winner of The Nunthorpe…Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
Hope one or two British sprinters can keep the Nun at home.
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