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<p abp=”258″>You can see Finche’s race here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cEJ4V9V8sU
<p abp=”260″>Smashing looking horse
I’m not sure he’ll be as good if he can’t get his toe in. Good looking horse though.
Busy week with Senator making his seasonal debut under top weight at York on Wednesday, then Cracksman & Swiss Storm entered in the Dante on Thursday, Marine One entered both at Newmarket on Thursday & Newbury on Friday with Westerland & Weekender entered also at Newbury and on Saturday at Newbury Icespire & Aljezeera are entered in the Oaks trial.
Hopefully, Aljezeera will run as this will probably be the last chance for a prep if they are still thinking Oaks – at this stage I would be more inclined to look at the Ribblesdale or Irish Oaks rather than rushing to make Epsom.
The 3 yr old maiden race that Flora de Marioposa won in Japan against the colts at the weekend was more meritorious given the fact that (because she was bred in the southern hemisphere) she doesn’t actually turn 3 yrs old until 17 August.
Cunco is of to the States: https://twitter.com/Frankel1313/status/864724868205469696
Best Wishes
SilkVery odd ride from Hanagan on Senator – from the widest draw he gave away some lenghts by veering right and then pulled himself through to be just in behind the leaders turning in then Hanagan sat still and didn’t move for nearly 3F as horses past him and then passing the 2F he started doing minimal hand and heels riding to which (surprisingly given how hard he pulled) he started to stay on nicely to finish 5th beaten just over 5L.
Not saying he would have won but he would have been in the shake up and considering he was lumping 9-7 (giving the winner 8lbs, the 2nd 12lbs, the 3rd 14lbs and the 4th 10lbs) in very soft ground, I thought it was very encouraging and I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to be a fair bit better than a Class 3 level handicapper.
Could be that they are protecting his mark for Royal Ascot LD…..
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Could be that they are protecting his mark for Royal Ascot LD…..
Good point, will be interesting to see what future engagements he gets
A new chapter in the Frankel story opens today as Westerland makes his debut in the same race that Cunco won last year. As such, and with some time on my hands today, I thought I’d share some thoughts on what we have seen so far and, based on that, what we might expect over the coming months and years.
So let’s start with a few stats.
61 runners of which 35 have won a race. (57%).
54 wins at a strike rate of over 30%
8 individual Group winners including 1 Group One winner
15 runners with an RPR of over 100
25 runners with an RPR of over 90
35 runners with an RPR of over 80So the stats are good and we are still only in May but has it all been plain sailing?
Well, in a word, no.
As was discussed at length on the other thread, there have been disappointments along the way and it is fair to say that, as of this moment, he has yet to produce a star. In fact, he has yet to produce anything that is better than 30lbs his inferior! I mentioned at the start of this thread a few years ago Tony Morris’ article about “regression to the norm” – the theory that truly great horses can never reproduce a horse that is better than him. So far that theory stands up – Frankel has yet to produce a horse who is even in the same stratosphere as himself and I dare say that none of his progeny could yet have beaten their dad over ANY distance – but we are of course only in the very early stages.
My concern at that this stage is that none of the very promising ones have managed that step up from good to really good or great. Several have flattered to deceive; Fair Eva, Queen Kindly, Eminent, Dream Castle, Toulifaut, Soul Stirring and Swiss Storm are just some who have failed when asked to take on better company and the giant improvements we saw with Frankel from race to race have been less evident in his progeny.
I have also been disappointed and surprised at the lack of speed among many of his offspring. Very few possess a turn of foot. Most seem to have inherited the long stride and can gallop but surprisingly few have shown that searing change of pace that was one of dad’s trademarks.
And, most troublingly, there is that tendency to be keen in races. Many of them are handfuls, especially the colts, and I fear that, with some, their temperament will mean that we never get to see the best of them. We all know that Frankel was buzzy but with every passing day I think we are seeing how incredible and what a genius Sir Henry was to harness that talent and produce the perfect racing machine with those genes! Even yesterday I watched with frustration as Swiss Storm pulled his way to the front – you knew his chance was gone after 2 furlongs. Marine One wouldn’t settle either. Look at horses like Seven Heavens who needs his knackers chopped in the next 10 minutes!! Of course there are several exceptions – Cracksman is apparently the opposite – and these are the ones most likely to make that step up I would think, but overall even really good trainers are struggling to control their Frankel’s.
So, whilst not everything is rosy in the garden, I still believe there is cause for optimism. Although he is yet to produce a superstar, he has produced very few complete duds. Most of his runners have shown ability and there is a plethora of unexposed colts and fillies out there who could be anything. Of those thirty-five runners with RPR’s over 80, six are unbeaten and only fourteen have run more than 3 times. Whilst the likes of Cunco, Frankuus, Queen Kindly and Majoris are probably as good now as they will ever be, there are horses like Cracksman, Mirage Dancer, Eminent, Icespire, Atty Persse, Straight Shooter, Mori, Last Kingdom, The Grand Visir, Finche and Aljazeera who have all shown considerable potential. At this stage it IS just potential but it is hard to think that none of these will end up being Group horses. As I write, Frankel has 3 of the top 7 in the Derby betting (according to Oddschecker) and he is looking like having a large representation at Royal Ascot next month.
Of course these horses have to prove themselves at that higher level but, then again, so do most of their rivals. The lovely thing about this stage of the flat season is that there are still so many unanswered questions; so many bubbles yet to be burst. The Guineas’ were a disappointment but it might just be that Frankel’s progeny will be better at middle-distances. The next few weeks and months will tell us more.
For what it’s worth I believe there are three or four future Group 1 horses in there on top of Soul Stirring. I believe Mirage Dancer will be contesting Group 1 races later in the year and will improve greatly from 3 to 4 years – he is in the perfect hands to do so. Cracksman is clearly a live Derby candidate as is Eminent who is likely to be better over that trip than the mile of the Guineas. I think Andre Fabre might have a very nice one in Straight Shooter and I know he thinks the world of Last Kingdom too. There are others like Icespire, Aljazeera and The Grand Visir who could also eventually be contesting races at the highest level.
I know that Frankel was given every chance of being a top stallion and that some have been annoyed by the hype surrounding him. There is an opinion that he is only actually doing the barest minimum considering the quality of mares that he was sent. In answering I would say only that, whilst I agree he has had all the advantages, to my mind he is doing all that could have been expected at this stage and more. The winners keep coming and he is being represented in all the top races. There is yet to be a superstar but we are only in May and there are plenty more races to be run.
Sir Henry was my sporting hero growing up. My brothers would tell you I was obsessed – they probably weren’t wrong. As a child, going to Newmarket with my Grandad and watching the likes of Kris, Oh So Sharp and Diminuendo are memories I cherish. Frankel was the icing on top of that extraordinary cake. I consider the delivery of Frankel to Sir Henry at the end of his life to be almost a miracle. In some ways Frankel’s progeny keeps him alive to me. So I’ll be cheering on Westerland today and thinking of the great man as always.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Icespire and Mori look set to clash in the Height of Fashion (Lupe) Stakes on Thursday
Good post Joni though your love of Henry is a great persuasion. I’d email Henry every time Frankel ran and the day of the Sussex stakes I reminded him of 1964, the year Roan Rocket won the Sussex Stake. But it wasn’t Roan Rocket that was important in the Henry story, it was the win in the Goodwood Cup by Raise You Ten, the first big winner almost immediately after Henry was appointed assistant trainer to Cecil Boyd-Rochfort. I had a good on-course day.
Good post Joni though your love of Henry is a great persuasion. I’d email Henry every time Frankel ran and the day of the Sussex stakes I reminded him of 1964, the year Roan Rocket won the Sussex Stake. But it wasn’t Roan Rocket that was important in the Henry story, it was the win in the Goodwood Cup by Raise You Ten, the first big winner almost immediately after Henry was appointed assistant trainer to Cecil Boyd-Rochfort. I had a good on-course day.
Wow – thanks for sharing that. You were on board a few years before me then! I think that must have been 1969 right? 2 years before I was born!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Smashing post Joni – I thoroughly enjoyed reading that, especially after all the ‘carry-on’ on the Fair Eva thread. It’s exactly the right combination of hopeful optimism, appreciation and proper analysis that is this forum at its best. Thanks for taking the time to write that. I agreed with pretty much all of it, especially the areas of disappointment – but it is still way too early to judge him. Let’s see what 2/3 June and also Crop 2 bring.
The only things I’d add are: (1) the uncertainties that many trainers seem to have over distance, which is related to the temperament issues. Not knowing what they are, so to speak, can’t help matters for trainers; and 2) the parallels (to me at least) with Noble Mission. A lot of Crop 1 seem to be long striding gallopers, more like him than Frankel himself. As I recollect, it took a good few seasons to work out how to ride Noble Mission and to get the best from that horse. Perhaps we’ll start to see the same kind of pattern here? I also remember that Noble Mission had a reputation for being difficult. It’s interesting to reflect on that, especially given recent comments from AO’B on Galileo and ‘mind’. I find myself remembering Sir Henry’s comments after Frankel’s first race, which were broadly on the lines that, whilst on paper you’d think he’d be a middle distance colt, temperamentally he was ‘all Kind’ and would need to be campaigned accordingly. Given what we’ve seen on the racecourse so far from Frankel’s progeny, I’m starting to think that one of the keys to Frankel the stallion will be in the extent to which the temperament traits he’s inherited from Kind, and which he is passing on, can be channelled more effectively. I wonder if an exclusively stellar book may not be what Frankel needs ‘to rule the world’ – after all, Mill Reef’s second crop included one Shirley Heights (out of the highly unfashionable and not at all noteworthy Hardiemma, by Hardicanute).
Frankel has sired his first Classic winner, Soul Stirring https://twitter.com/Frankel1313/status/866183565981007872
Best Wishes
SilkFantastic performance by Soul Stirring – seeing out every yard of the mile and a half and wins going away! A first classic for the mighty one!! Would be lovely if we saw her over here at some point.
PS – thank you KS and Titus for your posts. Much appreciated. You are right Titus – many of them have that Noble Mission streak. Blame Grandma!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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