- This topic has 2,110 replies, 25 voices, and was last updated 2 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Richard Hannon will run his when it’s ready.
Do you get many four year old maidens…..?Blackbeard to conquer the World
I have no idea, you’ll have to go to the paper shop and buy the racing post
It’s OK, I found them!
May I ask who are the other three Frankels?
I’d have a guess that Michael Stoute’s
MORI (daughter of Midday) will be one of them.
Possibly
ERDOGAN (Dar Re Mi) John Gosden and
LA FIGLIA (Finsceal Beo) trained by William Haggas.That’s only a stab in the dark though, be interesting to see who they are when he flags them up..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I have no idea, you’ll have to go to the paper shop and buy the racing post
It’s OK, I found them!
Who are they?
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Nope, none of them.
Harba (filly out of Kirinda) – entered in Rockfel and Cheveley Park, trained by W Haggas
Tsavo (colt out of Hazel Lavery) – no entries, trained by H Palmer
Eminent (colt out of You’ll Be Mine) – entered in Royal Lodge, trained by M MeadeAn interesting read here by John Berry http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/frankels-flying-start-impressive-but-not-matchless/
The entries are out for the G1 juvenile races for fillies and colts on Arc day, there is one unraced Frankel entered, a Juddmonte colt out of Tarocchi called Franked and trained by Fabre.
Raced fillies entered are Fair Eva, Aljazeera and Toulifaut
Raced colt entered is Seven HeavensInteresting with Frankel is that he has Northern dancer on both sides of his pedigree. I’m sure I read recently that Breeders are trying to avoid Northern Dancer inbreeding but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to do so. I wonder if any breeding experts have any opinions on this.
In breeding terms, pedigree (along with temperament) have always been my concerns with Frankel. Like so many others he is bred on the Galileo/Danehill cross, plus there is Mr Prospector in there as well (via Urban Sea) and also Rainbow Quest. Given the preponderance of Galileo/Danehill and Mr P in the TB breeding population then we can expect an awful lot of close in-breeding with Frankel’s progeny, and this is already there in some of the stock who have been seen out. Cunco, for e.g. is out of a Danehill Dancer mare, whose mother is by Sadler’s Wells; Majoris is by a Kingmambo mare out of Alexandrova by Sadler’s Wells; Fair Eva’s dam is from the Mr Prospector sire line, and also doubles up on Rainbow Quest. Others we have yet to see have similar double-ups e.g. Mori (from the Danzig line) and Eminent (who doubles on Mr P and SW). Down the line these closely in-bred individuals will need complete outcrosses.
The Frankels that interest me most are those that do something different on the bottom line such as Toulifaut and Aljezeera. Pivotal mares seem to work well, as do Rahy’s from what we’ve seen (QK and Seven Heavens are on these lines). Interestingly, a few of the ones highlighted in this week’s RP article are also of this ilk – Tsavo’s is out of an Excellent Art mare (so again from Pivotal); then there is Swiss Storm (out of an Indian Ridge mare) and Rainbow Legacy (by Spectrum). I’d add Erdogan to that list (ex Da Re Mi, by Singspiel ex Darara by High Top).I am not a breeding expert, but have kept in touch with it over the years.
Frankel is in-bred 3×4 to Northern Dancer; that is, Northern Dancer appears once in Frankel’s third generation and once in his fourth. He is also inbred 4x5x5 to Natalma. Frankel’s contribution of the genes of Northern Dancer to any of his foals will be in their fourth and fifth generations.
This degree of inbreeding is not uncommon for thoroughbreds at various times in the last 150 years, when inbreeding has been in fashion; both Hyperion and Fairway were 3×4 St Simon for example. It is not uncommon now. In the USA, the current top-priced stallion, Tapit is 3×4 Mr Prospector, 3×5 Nijinsky, 4×5 In Reality Recent USA champion stallion A.P. Indy is 3×4 Bold Ruler, 4x5x5 Nasrullah, 4×5 Princequillo, 5×5 Turn-To. Just a quick scan through only stallions at Coolmore and Darley show that there are other stallions with similar profiles to Frankel:
Fastnet Rock – 3×4 Northern Dancer, 4x5x5 Natalma, exactly like Frankel
Pour Moi – 3×4 Northern Dancer
Authorized – 3×4 Northern Dancer, 4×5 Val De Loir
Teofilo – 3×4 Northern Dancer, 4x5x5 Natalma, 5×5 Raise A Native, 5×5 Buckpasser, 5×5 Ribot
Gleaneagles – 3×4 Northern Dancer, 5×5 Hail To ReasonIn 2015 about 4,400 foals were born in the UK and another 8,200 were born in Ireland. If Galileo or Danehill were to have produced 150 foals a year (a guessed maximum) then he would account for about 1% of any year’s cohort of foals. Danehill died one year after Galileo took up stud duties. The number of UK/IRE mares with either sire in their pedigree is low compared to the entire UK/IRE mare population. It might be, say, three times higher than some other stallion, but still low compared to the population as a whole. It is very low if USA, FR, GER mares are also considered as suitable mates for Frankel.
It is somewhat subjective, but if a moderate to low level of inbreeding could be defined as nothing “worse” than 3×4 crosses, then Frankel’s current crop of two-year-olds, with pedigrees in the public domain, could be split into two groups:
Highly Inbred
Amser, Captor, Cracksman, Cunco, Dancing, Elyaasaat, Eminent, Harba, Majoris, Nothing But Dreams, Overview, Rainswept, Rise Eagle, Seirios, Tango Fire, The Grand Visir, Wasmiya.Moderately/Slightly Inbred
Aljezeera, Alwaatheq, Ambrosia, Aspirer, Aurora Gold, Aushaiger, Brave Venture, Brave Vision, Brooklyn Bobby, Call The Wind, Carry A Flame, Commander, Commentariolus, Coofa Diva, Count Octave, Discretionary, Dream Castle, Elphin, Elusive Happines, Erdogan, Europium, Extra Mile, Fair Eva, Finche, Fizzi Top, Frank Man, Franked, Frankel Venture, Frankelio, Frankuus, Frima, Future Energy, Ghalyah, Golden Hooves, Goldrush, Hell In The Night, Icespire, Immortalised, Jimjam, Khattar, Kings Advice, La Figlia, Last Kingdom, Lightening Fast, Mi Suerte, Mirage Dancer, Miss Frankel, Monarchs Glen, Moon Mountain, Mori, Mozu Ascot, Musikel, Occurrence, Omneeya, Queen Kindly, Rain On The Dune, Rainbow Legacy, Rezat, Rhodes House, Rubilinda, San Remo, Senator, Seven Heavens, Solo Saxaphone, Soul Stirring, Special Ops, Speralita, Swiss Storm, Top Deck, Touch Of Paradise, Toulifaut, Tsavo, UAE King, Weekender, Yaraki, You Alone, Zefferino.Great post MV. I hadn’t gone into as much depth but one of the striking things about this first crop of Frankel’s is that there is this category of highly in-bred individuals in there, as well as the more conventional 3 x 4 crosses and the ones that have a completely different bottom line. I’m not sure how specific, or not, to Frankel this is since I’ve not looked at other current stallions in such a way. But, given how the mares for the first crop were chosen to give him the maximum chance of succeeding, I wonder how much pedigree was part of the thinking – i.e. were they also thinking ‘what will happen if we go 3 x 3 etc’? One of the things that interests me in terms of racing performance is whether there will be a difference between these groups. At the back of my mind is the thought that the better Mill Reef’s in terms of racing ability in general came from the stouter/less fashionably bred mares, like Hardiemma. Looking at Frankel in terms of pedigree that is what I’d expect to work for him too.
Whilst still on Frankel as a sire – Joni raised the fillies point, and I agree. So far (admittedly small numbers) the fillies we have seen are better than the colts, and look easier to deal with. Then there is no doubt about it that these Frankel’s come in all shapes and sizes, so he is throwing to the mare. All of which suggests to me that, as a stallion, Frankel may be more likely to succeed as a broodmare sire. Secretariat springs to mind here.
Slightly off-topic, but I would love to see a proper analysis of the entire UK TB breeding population and change over time, say from 1970 onwards. Has anyone done this? For me, it’s not in-breeding to a specific individual that is so much the issue as line breeding based on the sons of Northern Dancer. My practical knowledge on this is not horse-specific but the general rule of thumb for line breeding other species is ‘in’/’in’/’out’ over 3-generations – do anything different to that and you get big problems in terms of general health as well as a decline in fertility (first visible in the females). With horses there is also the soundness issue (bone density) that connects to too much in-breeding.Great posts guys – really interesting reading. The fillies definitely have the edge at the moment and I wonder if it just because they don’t have the temperament problem that might be preventing the boys showing their best. There are plenty of Frankel’s coming out this week and the one that really interests me runs at Goodwood tomorrow. I mentioned a “gap in the market” for the 2,000 Guineas and I think it might just be filled by Seven Heavens. This one is being handled by JG in the way I imagine Stevie would have liked to see RC handle Fair Eva. He has been very patient and let the horse grow up a bit. He has a bit of a penalty kick tomorrow but I will be interested to see how he goes. The form is there as he beat Lockheed in his maiden and that one has run very well in Group company. There is 33’s available for the Guineas – I have had to take 25’s. Fingers crossed he will get the boys up to the same level as the girls.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Really interesting breeding posts, thanks guys.
I’d like to see Frankel get sent some good Selkirk mares. Selkirk was a better sire of fillies than colts so has the potential to be a decent broodmare sire, and he was a complete outcross to ND. Obviously some/most of his daughters will be out of mares with ND in there somewhere but it dilutes the inbreeding to an extent.
Shocking price today, Seventh Heaven, 7-1 on.
I know it will almost certainly win but you’d think that the second fav would hold the price up a bit.
Tight bookies crushing the punters again
That race will have done him more harm than good for the future. I think you’ll still get 25’s for the Guineas.
That race will have done him more harm than good for the future. I think you’ll still get 25’s for the Guineas.
Bumped at the start and he pulled like a train for much of the race.
That was farcical watching a two horse affair and I doubt Seven Heavens learned much there. He outclassed his opponent despite the tearaway desire but he will need to settle an awful lot better than he did today when he goes up in class.
Seven Heavens remained unmoved in the Guineas betting despite the Racing Post seeming to have multiple orgasms about him beating his sole rival.
He could be a good horse but it won’t happen if he can’t learn to relax and channel his ability. You get the feeling the Guineas might come early enough for him to be anywhere like the finished article.
The Guineas is packed with doubtful stayers so I feel there may be some value in the big prices. I backed Escobar at double carpet and much prefer him to Seven Heavens at the moment.
I hope Fair Eva can bounce back and prove it was trainer error in placing that cost her at York. She is still the only Frankel offspring that I can envisage lifting a Classic next season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.