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Don’t you just love this sport ?!
Waiting for a race at Newmarket so watching Downpatrick. Cyras Love is apparently expected to win. Quick glance at the form and it’s poor but so’s the race.
Anyway this favourite is beaten out of sight by a maiden who’s raced 17 times under rules and a further 9 times in points.
Recent form figures of PU, F, F, 3, PU, PU, 4. Trainer is 6 from 114 this season.At Newmarket Rizeena is beaten by a horse about 20lb’s inferior.
Dont worry , Ginger will be along soon telling you it was the value
yes indeed , ….end of term flat racing to be avoided at all costs
imo
Ricky
Do you really want to know Mark?
Here goes…
Imperial Joey was in good form over hurdles between August and October 2011. However, he then ran twice over fences and obviously did not take to them, beating just 6 home of 29 rivals.A 6 month break between November 2011 and May 2012 ensued, so obviously had a problem. Came back with a handicap rating of 99 and ran poorly, three times finishing behind. Then on the face of it an even worse one, pulled up on his last start for Michael Flannery. But with a Timeform comment “has been given a chance by the handicapper”, now off a mark of 92.
Then a whole year’s break and with a new trainer, PJ Rothwell (July 2013). Again, must have had a problem. Pulled up after a bad mistake 3 out…
Followed by on 10th August – last time out. Showed his first form since those good runs of 2011. For the first run in his life front-running, tactics that evidently suit these days. This form still some 19 lbs below his best Timeform rating. However, it was an indication Imperial Joey might be capable of better. Today the Timeform rating was that of his last time out performance but with a “+” which means “the horse may be better than we have rated it”. Ie somewhere between the last time out and 2011 form. So could be very well treated off a mark of just 84, that’s 8 lbs better than when Timeform said “has been given a chance by the handicapper”. Imperial Joey was absolutely thrown in on his best form today and duly made all, winning with a bit in hand.
Imperial Joey would probably have won even had Cyras Love run to its best. Latter a half-sister to a 2 ¾m winner and dam half sister to stayer Maljimar. Sire Fruits of Love another stamina influence. So Cyras Love probably unsuited by a slow early pace, making a mistake and losing ground shortly before the pace picked up. With a stronger early pace and error free round she’d have been closer to the winner. And at 3/1 she’s hardly "expected to win", if the market was right just around a 23% chance of winning.
Value Is EverythingAt Newmarket Rizeena is beaten by a horse about 20lb’s inferior
Rating two year olds is tricky business.
The pro’s will tell you Ratings this and ratings that.
I say back Richard Hughes.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
And at 3/1 she’s hardly "expected to win", if the market was right just around a 23% chance of winning.
That comment only confirms your negative attitude to betting Ginge and why you have to back 85% of the average field.I’d love to know your ‘Main bet only winning’ strike rate,I’d suggest around 1%.
And at 3/1 she’s hardly "expected to win", if the market was right just around a 23% chance of winning.
That comment only confirms your negative attitude to betting Ginge and why you have to back 85% of the average field.I’d love to know your ‘Main bet only winning’ strike rate,I’d suggest around 1%.
No Gordie Boy,
Nothing to do with a "negative attitude to betting", just "confirms" you don’t understand simple maths.This coming a day after another of my "main bets" won @ 33/1, I don’t care what you’d "suggest".
Value Is EverythingHow about not telling us your betting proffiency for one day Mr tipster?
Generally "gamblers" who are quick to talk about their successes and abilities are those who are most fundamentally flawed.
Ginge I am on here sniffin for clone
but did notice your…
This coming a day after another of my "main bets" won @ 33-1
had earlier read before edit
…this coming a day after my main bets won @ 33-1
this may not be freudian slippage but does mean you do read
your posts through againOh dear MY edit showed up
Do you think Nathan that 2yos are less consistent than older horses?
We know less about them.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
And at 3/1 she’s hardly "expected to win", if the market was right just around a 23% chance of winning.
That comment only confirms your negative attitude to betting Ginge and why you have to back 85% of the average field.I’d love to know your ‘Main bet only winning’ strike rate,I’d suggest around 1%.
It confirms something else but we already knew that.
You see i’d said " apparently expected to win " but he doesn’t quote that and takes it out of context.
I’d be interested to see the stats but i think it’s more uncommon for 2 yr olds to run up a sequence than a 3yr old.
Haggas’ favourite this afternoon had recorded an excellent RPR on it’s debut but was beaten by a stablemate.
Seems to be like bumper horses. If they win first time out they usually don’t follow up next time. Guess it depends how fit the horse is prior to it’s debut. Someone like Nicky Henderson has his ready and his FTO strike rate with bumper horses is excellent, though they invariably fail to replicate that run next time and not always because of the penalty.
Most other trainers will use a debut merely as a longer gallop but the horses improve for that runGodawful have 2yr olds at this time of year that look really smart but many of them only seem to race once or twice at 3.
How about not telling us your betting proffiency for one day Mr tipster?
Generally "gamblers" who are quick to talk about their successes and abilities are those who are most fundamentally flawed.
Oh he’s flawed alright J17star…….Floored by me!
Gambles took a wrong turn!
How about not telling us your betting proffiency for one day Mr tipster?
Generally "gamblers" who are quick to talk about their successes and abilities are those who are most fundamentally flawed.
J17,
Did you here me mention it anywhere else bar my thread before Gordie Boy took yet another pop at me? No.Just used it to defend myself. Gordie Boy somehow thinks because I bet more than one horse in a race – I am somehow giving away money.
eg yesterday’s 3:40 Newmarket.
The bet to win most money was a 15 point bet on Miracle Of Medinah @ 33/1. I also backed 37 points @ 5/1 Silent Bullet,ie two main bets with an 18 points saver on Cable Bay @ 3/1…Yet if I only had one bet in the race it might have been Silent Bullet. So it is because I am willing to back two or three horses in a race that I spot the value amongst outsiders.
Value Is EverythingGinge I am on here sniffin for clone
but did notice your…
This coming a day after another of my "main bets" won @ 33-1
had earlier read before edit
…this coming a day after my main bets won @ 33-1
this may not be freudian slippage but does mean you do read
your posts through againOh dear MY edit showed up
I don’t remember if I edited or not Gamble. On this thread it does not matter. But yes, I do read my posts back, just in case I make a mistake.
Value Is EverythingIt confirms something else but we already knew that.
You see i’d said " apparently expected to win " but he doesn’t quote that and takes it out of context.
"Apparently" does not make any difference Mark, you still said "apparently expected to win". With the price being 3/1 you’d only need to win 1 in 4 at that price to break even. So apparently
not
expected to win.
You keep on inferring it is a surprise when a horse gets beaten Mark, when it is in
fact
nothing of the sort.
Value Is EverythingJ17,
Did you here me mention it anywhere else bar my thread before Gordie Boy took yet another pop at me? No.Just used it to defend myself. Gordie Boy somehow thinks because I bet more than one horse in a race – I am somehow giving away money.
eg yesterday’s 3:40 Newmarket.
The bet to win most money was a 15 point bet on Miracle Of Medinah @ 33/1. I also backed 37 points @ 5/1 Silent Bullet,ie two main bets with an 18 points saver on Cable Bay @ 3/1…Yet if I only had one bet in the race it might have been Silent Bullet. So it is because I am willing to back two or three horses in a race that I spot the value amongst outsiders.
You don’t need to defend yourself. This need to defend yourself is a flaw many poker players (at all levels) suffer from. If you’re profitable, excellent, but the need to continually propogate this grows tiresome and predictable.
Successful gambling has a strong correlation with a temparament that understands variation and downswings, and one that doesn’t have this urge to prove oneself.
Profilability is profitability. Sometimes i feel you care more about the "prestige" and perception of yourself rather than the actual objective ; making money.
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