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Agree with most of what you say LGR, but I think if it were good going Denman is capable of going at a faster speed throughout (than he did today). Which would still make it a stamina test.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingLooks asthough 4/1 is the best price now judging from oddschecker.
Value Is Everything
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Ruby said he wasn’t happy with Kauto from before halfway,and the horse didn’t look himself long before pace became a real issue.
To say he was beaten because of the distance is laughable in view of him actually making ground on Denman between the last 2 fences. Cheltenham’s 3m 2f on soft ground may not be his ideal circumstance, but, whatever the reasons behind his run today, there is no denying his sheer class in being able to run on as he did after such a searching test.
Personally, I think he ran some way below his best, no matter that the 3rd and 4th may be improving, none of their form suggests they would have got near a fully fit KS on any one of his previous runs. Whatever the reason, I doubt very much that it was lack of stamina.
Awesome performance by Denman, and he may ultimately prove to be the better horse, but to write off Kauto Star for one below par performance flies in the face of everything the horse had achieved prior to yesterday.Ruby said he wasn’t happy with Kauto from before halfway,and the horse didn’t look himself long before pace became a real issue.
.Jockeys say all sorts. Take Denman out and if Kauto doesn’t hit the last he wins his second GC by 3 or 4 lengths with Exotic Dancer way back. Everyone would’ve been saying how brilliant it was.
Kauto has run to within 1lb of his run last year on my ratings, just that this years GC was run on much softer ground, at a quicker gallop and Kauto couldn’t cope with Denman.
Ruby said he wasn’t happy with Kauto from before halfway,and the horse didn’t look himself long before pace became a real issue.
.Jockeys say all sorts. Take Denman out and if Kauto doesn’t hit the last he wins his second GC by 3 or 4 lengths with Exotic Dancer way back. Everyone would’ve been saying how brilliant it was.
Except you’re forgetting Neptune Collonges?! He was a short head back.
Kauto Star didn’t run to his optimum in last year’s Gold Cup. He ran nowhere near that level yesterday, never travelling or jumping with any fluency. Ruby’s view was not needed to see it, but only confirmed what most could see I would think.
Ruby said he wasn’t happy with Kauto from before halfway,and the horse didn’t look himself long before pace became a real issue.
.Jockeys say all sorts. Take Denman out and if Kauto doesn’t hit the last he wins his second GC by 3 or 4 lengths with Exotic Dancer way back. Everyone would’ve been saying how brilliant it was.
Except you’re forgetting Neptune Collonges?! He was a short head back.
Kauto Star didn’t run to his optimum in last year’s Gold Cup. He ran nowhere near that level yesterday, never travelling or jumping with any fluency. Ruby’s view was not needed to see it, but only confirmed what most could see I would think.
Neptune loved the conditions and ran to almost the same mark as in his previous race. He’s a very good horse at this best, about 8lbs behind Kauto at his peak but he’s not the "average" horse people are making him out to be.
Kauto will never run to 180 over 3m2f at Cheltenham its past his optimum trip.
Ruby said he wasn’t happy with Kauto from before halfway,and the horse didn’t look himself long before pace became a real issue.
.Jockeys say all sorts. Take Denman out and if Kauto doesn’t hit the last he wins his second GC by 3 or 4 lengths with Exotic Dancer way back. Everyone would’ve been saying how brilliant it was.
Except you’re forgetting Neptune Collonges?! He was a short head back.
Kauto Star didn’t run to his optimum in last year’s Gold Cup. He ran nowhere near that level yesterday, never travelling or jumping with any fluency. Ruby’s view was not needed to see it, but only confirmed what most could see I would think.
Neptune loved the conditions and ran to almost the same mark as in his previous race. He’s a very good horse at this best, about 8lbs behind Kauto at his peak but he’s not the "average" horse people are making him out to be.
Kauto will never run to 180 over 3m2f at Cheltenham its past his optimum trip.
I agree about the previous race, but I think that was massively overrated. You cannot use collateral form with a 140 rated chaser, and hope to gain an absolutely correct rating for his victor.
Ruby said he wasn’t happy with Kauto from before halfway,and the horse didn’t look himself long before pace became a real issue.
.Jockeys say all sorts. Take Denman out and if Kauto doesn’t hit the last he wins his second GC by 3 or 4 lengths with Exotic Dancer way back. Everyone would’ve been saying how brilliant it was.
Except you’re forgetting Neptune Collonges?! He was a short head back.
Kauto Star didn’t run to his optimum in last year’s Gold Cup. He ran nowhere near that level yesterday, never travelling or jumping with any fluency. Ruby’s view was not needed to see it, but only confirmed what most could see I would think.
Neptune loved the conditions and ran to almost the same mark as in his previous race. He’s a very good horse at this best, about 8lbs behind Kauto at his peak but he’s not the "average" horse people are making him out to be.
Kauto will never run to 180 over 3m2f at Cheltenham its past his optimum trip.
I agree about the previous race, but I think that was massively overrated. You cannot use collateral form with a 140 rated chaser, and hope to gain an absolutely correct rating for his victor.
But you have the race rated very similar to me so what are we arguing about?
We’re not arguing! In agreement mostly, just i think Neptune Collonge’s previous race was not worthy of the ratings it has been given.
Like Desert Orchid, KS isn’t a Cheltenham horse. That he’s managed to run a first and second in the GC, returning mid 170s only adds to his standing as one of the best three-milers we have seen for a long, long time.
Denman and Kauto are essentially chalk-and-cheese.
D – thorough test at 3m+ GS or worse, galloping track 185
KS – easy 3m GS or better, sharp track 185Roll on the (now-sharp) Haydock and Kempton
Incidentally, that Denman did appear to be bottoming-out at the end of the GC would suggest to me that he needed to give his all – and then some – to see off KS and the seemingly out-and-out stayer Neptune Collonges. The heavy ground Hennessy win off top-weight over the same trip was a cake-walk in comparison
The winning time Kauto Star achieved in last year’s gold cup was 6m 40.2s whereas Denman’s time was 6m 47.8s this year … the going on both occasions was good to soft.
Kauto Star certainly didn’t run up to his best.
Ruby said he wasn’t happy with Kauto from before halfway,and the horse didn’t look himself long before pace became a real issue.
To say he was beaten because of the distance is laughable in view of him actually making ground on Denman between the last 2 fences. Cheltenham’s 3m 2f on soft ground may not be his ideal circumstance, but, whatever the reasons behind his run today, there is no denying his sheer class in being able to run on as he did after such a searching test.
Personally, I think he ran some way below his best, no matter that the 3rd and 4th may be improving, none of their form suggests they would have got near a fully fit KS on any one of his previous runs. Whatever the reason, I doubt very much that it was lack of stamina.
Awesome performance by Denman, and he may ultimately prove to be the better horse, but to write off Kauto Star for one below par performance flies in the face of everything the horse had achieved prior to yesterday.Here’s something that might just back up what you are saying Reet.
A friend who studies times sent me an email this is part of what he had to say.
“I have analyzed both the 2007 and the 2008 Gold Cups. The times for the first circuit differ by around 1.42 second 2008 being the faster. Denman’s time for the race was 6.4784:- 7.6 seconds slower than that recorded by by Kauto Star in 2007.” The going was declared as good to soft at both meetings but that seems not to be the case. There is a distinct difference when comparing race to race, year to year, all races run in 2008 have been much slower.It should be noted that the Foxhunters of 2008 was only 5.5 seconds slower than the previous year.”
My friend has his own idea about the race but I am still not as sure as him as I don’t study times.
It is possible the gallop wasn’t anywhere near as strong as it looked considering ED is easy to excuse considering his setback and the only other horse anyone gave a chance to was NC.
The question I would like to put to the others on here who think Kauto has run to form is:- If I had come on here before the race and said NC was going to run Kauto Star to a head, which one of you would have been the first one to say I was raving mad?
Something was amiss with Kauto I’ve watched all his races a dozen times. Never once in the early part of the race has Kauto not had the odd tug at he bit and gotten into a little bit of tussle with Ruby………nothing serious but he does take a little bit of settling. There was no buzz about him and settled too easily for my liking…He didn’t look his usual keen self to me and not jumping as well as he can at any stage and everthing just looked difficult to him.
If they went 1.42 second faster in the first half of the race but end up 7.6 seconds slower something is not right.
I’am sure some time experts on here will be able to come up with something but damned if I can explain it other than to say Kato has run a mile under his best……maybe the tacky ground was to blame…….Denman could run throuugh manure and still go through it like a tank and that could have been the difference today.
The 4/1 about next year Gold Cup looks very very tempting to me and Nicholls is brilliant at keeping horses straight…Findlay is talking about the
the National for Denman I hope he doesn’t go the horse has done enough this season…still a v good performance no matter what.The official going for 07 and 08 may be good-soft but that is not what the times suggest from the whole meeting.
Last season the ground was GOOD the times tell you that, compared to other years.
Yesterdays times suggest the going was GOOD-SOFT (bordering on Soft).
Don’t trust anyone with a conflict of interest on how good or soft it may be (racecourse staff).
Ginge
Value Is EverythingI can’t believe that the ground was the same last year as this year. I’d say last year’s was quicker ground, and it was a slowish run Gold Cup. As for this year I’d say it was probably just about soft ground, but the race seemed quicker, even though we know it wasn’t.
As for Neptunes Collonges, as he seems better on softish ground , why not enter him, for Paris in May – Grande Steeplechase de Paris at Auteil. I’d like to see a few British horses going for this race – then get Ch4 or BBC to cover it.Well said, Andy.
It’s long been a source of mystery to some on here (certainly to myself, and to a far larger extent Grasshopper) why the many decent British and Irish horses that need it soft underfoot aren’t sent across to Auteuil and the like more than they are.
It needn’t even be a matter of keeping them on the go through the whole summer – I’m sure there are some decent prizes to be had in France in May and June, after which they can still be roughed off for several months before a home campaign.
I look at the profile of a horse like Beef or Salmon and think, "there would have been a Grand Steeplechase de Paris in you at your best, son, but we never got to find out…"
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
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