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At a first guess, I would say:
Neptunes Collonges improved 5lbs to 170.
Denman improved to 181
Kauto Star on 170 means he ran about a stone below his best but curiously above what I would give last years winning performance as.NC surely ran to at least 175, his official rating was 172 leading into the race and he has bags of scope for improvement.
If you believed the Wincanton form it may have been possible to rate him better than 165 but he beat Naunton Brook and Butlers Cabin there, racing over an inadequate trip (for those two) of 3m1f on good going.
If anything I think I am being generous.Ginge
Value Is EverythingHave connections said yet whether any of the first three will race again this season? I want to see Denman or Neptunes Collonges frank the form.
Neptune Collonges is nailed on for the same Punchestown race as he won last year.
The other two are definitely confined to barracks until the autumn now, however.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Probably, Ginger, because Denman would be regarded as more effective around a bigger track than sharp, sharp Aintree, and because Kauto has a longer season than either of his stablemates (for all that it took in one race fewer than last term).
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I’d be surprised if Kauto Star didn’t turn up in the Totesport Bowl, unless today got to the bottom of him. Having lost the Betfair Million he’ll be chasing the Order of Merit, and David Pipe has signalled his intention to run Lough Derg wherever and whenever he can.
Probably, Ginger, because Denman would be regarded as more effective around a bigger track than sharp, sharp Aintree, and because Kauto has a longer season than either of his stablemates (for all that it took in one race fewer than last term).
gc
I mean if Kauto and Denman stay at home why doesn’t Neptunes run at Aintree?
Value Is EverythingGinge,
Not only is the Puchestown GC worth more, but connections believe that Neptune Collonges is better going right on a flatter track. If that’s the case, he’ll take all the beating in Ireland.
Think that about right handed flat tracks can be laid to rest now.
Can see more money appealing though.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingThink that about right handed flat tracks can be laid to rest now.
I wouldn’t rush to agree. He’s perfectly entitled to improve at his age. Nothing happened today to suggest he won’t still prefer the conditions that suited him best before. IMO the stand-out aspect to take from NC’s performance today was that it was the best staying performance he’s ever put up.
The two proper chasers from todays race were Denman and Neptune. The rest were reduced to also rans, in effect.
I think somebody said times were slow. Certainly, whatever about the going, animals found conditions very tiring, imo.
Stamina rather than speed was the order of the day.
Well done those who put up Denman and Neptune!
I’d be surprised if Kauto Star didn’t turn up in the Totesport Bowl, unless today got to the bottom of him. Having lost the Betfair Million he’ll be chasing the Order of Merit, and David Pipe has signalled his intention to run Lough Derg wherever and whenever he can.
Crikey, I hope not, for both animals’ sakes! Let’s not go down the route of 2005’s unedifying title chase once again, even to the lesser extent that this would be.
As much as anything else, how many plausible targets are there for Kauto Star outside of the Betfair Bowl? The jury’s still out as to whether he truly stays a properly-run 3m2.5f (the mistakes did cloud the matter a little for me today), let alone the extra 2.5f of the Sandown Gold Cup at the end of next month.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
NC was good today – he lead for a while on a track that doesnt suit him. seems more of a flat track soft ground horse to me with a bit of temprement – hes young and there will be plenty of races for us to watch him run well in
how good would he be if PN didnt train him ? – i have my doubts – seems more of a character of a horse.When Neptune Collonges first arrived at Ditcheat, Paul Nicholls said that he was a future Gold Cup winner – and today he’s run to a level that would, ordinarily, make him just that. And it puts the abilities of his conquerors in to perspective, especially when it’s not beyond reason that he ran to around 175 today himself.
I don’t think anyone could argue that Kauto Star ran to his best today, with the ground seemingly not ideal and his jumping far from fluent (I thought Ruby could have done a little more with him, but that’s a matter of opinion – it certainly wasn’t the pace, or presence of Denman as has been suggested, that effected him) but he’s not run at all badly.
Listening to Ted Walsh after the race made me laugh, intimating as he did that Kauto Star was now merely ‘very good’ in light of his defeat and perhaps he wasn’t everything we thought he was. I haven’t heard such nonsense from a C4 presenter in some time, and it just goes to show how naive some people can be. He’s still a 180 horse, and probably capable of registering even better figures, and although Denman is something of a phenomenon over a testing trip, I’d favour the ex-champion to regain his crown on decent ground – it would be an entirely different race, stamina having won the day today.
All credit to the winner, but I’m already counting down the days to next season’s renewal…
All prefectly true, LGR.
It’s also worth remembering that the three Nicholls horses are still only aged eight, eight and seven respectively. All three have the potential to improve yet further (to varying degrees), or, at the very least, have the right not to be described as on the downgrade as yet.
Walsh’s reducing of Kauto Star to just "very good" in his estimation is therefore probably as hopelessly premature as the one bookie that had regarded the gelding’s deterioration as sufficient to put him in as big as 8-1 for next year’s Gold Cup.
I wish I could remember which bookie that was. That might look like bargain of the century in a year’s time.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
how good would he be if PN didnt train him ? – i have my doubts – seems more of a character of a horse.
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