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I do hate it when people take things literally, respond to discussions with needlessly cynical remarks and fail to acknowledge what was actually said.
By the way, Ginge, how’s your argument for the black and white topic of value coming along?
Lighten up mate, don’t take it too literally.
I do hate it when people do not answer questions others put to them in a debate.
Fail to acknowledge what? Why be so cynical Equitrack?
Some do blame others for their own mistakes, that is a fact.
The value debate is already won.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI reckon people posting for years under one identity on here then trying to appear with a clean slate under a new moniker are guilty of a far worse crime
Hi
This whole distance thing is a bit of a British obsession the Aussies have no problem running horses and winning with them at wildly differing trips. Have a look at some of their Melbourne cup heroes
- Total Posts 17716
I am sorry but I can not have this as being corrupt. Trainers will run their horse’s over various trips from a young age because its all about finding out about your horse and unlocking any hidden attributes it may have. I take it you mean trainers running a horse over a trip which they know it will never have a chance of getting but the thing is you have to be careful here, that horse is a prized possesion of both connections and the stable and they have every right to run a horse in any race they wish as they are forking out the money to do so. What i’ve learnt recentley is if you stop a business from making profit by limiting them for example; putting a limit on what a Tesco’s can sell their bread at, then you will drive these companies away. We can interprit this into Racing, you are not happy with a trainer running a sprinter over a mile so shall we put in a law that stops trainers from running a horse over a trip within 1 furlong of their desired trip? this would have a dramatic effect and we would see Racing decline as a result. Punter’s do not have a say in what trainers should do, your money is only spent by yourself and your sole responsible for that and if you think a horse is running over a trip that looks dodgy well dont back it and dont even make a argument over the decsion taken by the trainer as they are doing what ever they can within the rules to keep their business alive especially during the current economy.
Never in the history of modern racing has an owner "every right to run a horse in any race they wish as they are forking out the money to do so".
Many owners have trouble even getting modest horses into any race at all.Racing is now run wholly to maximise the levy from betting, not to pander to owners and trainers. Integrity and perceived integrity are key to best retaining a high level of interest and attracting new interest in horseracing betting against the increasingly overwhelming competition from sports betting. If the levy falls, then practically all will suffer somehow within the "industry".
Your argument that trainers need to bend the existing rules to make a living by running horses at false distances does not make much sense. The race at the wrong distance is lost and the one at the right distance is won by the wrong trainer – so whoever gains someone in the ranks has to lose.
- Total Posts 17716
Robert I understand where you are coming from but there is no rule in racing or shouldn’t be a rule brought in that restricts a trainer from running a horse in whatever race he wants and your clearly labelling trainers that do try horses over a different trip as “ benders of the rules “ which is in my views very unfair. The Ayr Gold Cup winner this year had been running over a mile and won the cup by dropping in distance to a sprint for the first time in 4 years but I guess this circumstance is accepted by the betting public because the horse went on to win and was a good training performance, but let’s get the other angle of this and say the horse had lost then I don’t need to say what people’s opinions would have been. This is a fantastic case of getting the best out of your animal and find out attributes you’ve never experimented with in which this case it worked wonders. There are too many people out here criticising the sport rather than trying to make it work to improve its name.
Getting back to the original post, here’s the form book comment:
The Shy Man: behind, struggling 4th, plugged on from 2 out, never on terms.
Certainly an educative rather than severe ride by Barry Keniry. The Shy Man struggled to go the pace set by Astarador and didn’t enjoy the ground to my eye but was able to pass a couple in the latter stages without having the insides torn out of him and should progress from the run. I suspect a lot of horses who ran at Carlisle on Thursday will suffer for their exertions.
Carlisle is one of the most taxing courses. The "Solidus" states that :
2 mile chase at Carlisle in heavy conditions is equivelant to 2m 3f 110 yds at Segfield and 2m 3f at Kelso.
Backing two runners is the relentless pursuit of value. Backing each way is a shortcut to the poor house. Only 7% make a long term profit.
Carlisle is one of the most taxing courses. The "Solidus" states that :
2 mile chase at Carlisle in heavy conditions is equivelant to 2m 3f 110 yds at Segfield and 2m 3f at Kelso.
Nothing at Carlisle is equivalent to anything at Sedgefield!
Nothing at Carlisle is equivalent to anything at Sedgefield!
If the Courses cannot be compared. How do you know that Trainers run horses at wrong trips ?
Backing two runners is the relentless pursuit of value. Backing each way is a shortcut to the poor house. Only 7% make a long term profit.
I am sorry but I can not have this as being corrupt. Trainers will run their horse’s over various trips from a young age because its all about finding out about your horse and unlocking any hidden attributes it may have. I take it you mean trainers running a horse over a trip which they know it will never have a chance of getting but the thing is you have to be careful here, that horse is a prized possesion of both connections and the stable and they have every right to run a horse in any race they wish as they are forking out the money to do so. What i’ve learnt recentley is if you stop a business from making profit by limiting them for example; putting a limit on what a Tesco’s can sell their bread at, then you will drive these companies away. We can interprit this into Racing, you are not happy with a trainer running a sprinter over a mile so shall we put in a law that stops trainers from running a horse over a trip within 1 furlong of their desired trip? this would have a dramatic effect and we would see Racing decline as a result. Punter’s do not have a say in what trainers should do, your money is only spent by yourself and your sole responsible for that and if you think a horse is running over a trip that looks dodgy well dont back it and dont even make a argument over the decsion taken by the trainer as they are doing what ever they can within the rules to keep their business alive especially during the current economy.
Says the form book basher…
One limiting factor that hasn’t been considered on this thread is that there are not many right-handed jump tracks in the North. It might not be directly relevant to the intial post, but then again it could be. The only right handed National Hunt courses in the North are Perth (races summer only), Musselburgh (8 meetings in the winter) and Carlisle. Other than that it’s a trip down to Market Rasen. If you have a Scottish or far north of England trained horse which is favoured by a stiff right-handed track, then your horse’s prospects are in the hands of the race planner at Carlisle! The next best option is pointing the horse-box towards Towcester!
I’m not saying that this is the reason why The Shy Man was entered at Carlisle, but there must be times when trainers struggle to find suitable races for their horses. As an aside, I note this was the first time The Shy Man has run right-handed.
Rob
If you think the horse is running over the wrong trip…..dont back it.
lay it
I do not believe Raven’s Pass or Henrythenavigator will stay in the Breeders Cup Classic. However, there comes a price when it is worth taking a chance. i.e. its chace of staying (all be it a small one) has been underestimated by bookmakers and punters.
Every horse has a price to back and a price to lay, whether they are doubtful stayers or not. Because punters and bookmakers have taken a view they will not stay, that has pushed them out to a now (in my opinion) backable price.
If anyone wants to lay these two and wants to give me 50/1 I’d take it.
Mark
Shame nobody did.
Least I backed them.Value Is Everything……… and if you think a horse is running over a trip that looks dodgy well dont back it and dont even make a argument over the decsion ……
Good post from Mr. Wilson.
Rather than "dodgy", I would have used :-
Taking into account todays trip ( distance and course ) and going together with the competitions’ form over todays trip and going – this runner is fancied or not.
Backing two runners is the relentless pursuit of value. Backing each way is a shortcut to the poor house. Only 7% make a long term profit.
One limiting factor that hasn’t been considered on this thread is that there are not many right-handed jump tracks in the North. It might not be directly relevant to the intial post, but then again it could be. The only right handed National Hunt courses in the North are Perth (races summer only), Musselburgh (8 meetings in the winter) and Carlisle. Other than that it’s a trip down to Market Rasen. If you have a Scottish or far north of England trained horse which is favoured by a stiff right-handed track, then your horse’s prospects are in the hands of the race planner at Carlisle! The next best option is pointing the horse-box towards Towcester!
Good post, and it’s a quandary that applies for different horses at different times of year as well. Once Towcester and Hexham finish in late June, Worcester remains to all intents and purposes the only jumps track in operation until the start of October that cannot be described as sharp. I’m sure there must be long-striding animals that get sent there for want of anywhere better, even when there isn’t a race that matches their optimum trip / ground / class requirements perfectly.
That may change a little once Ffos Las opens, given that its flat, oval, left-hand, galloping 1m5f topography is not dissimilar to Worcester’s, but let’s see it open on time first. And, of course, that still doesn’t improve the lot of the Scottish trainers of summer jumpers any.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Least I backed them.
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