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If you think the horse is running over the wrong trip…..dont back it.
lay it
I do not believe Raven’s Pass or Henrythenavigator will stay in the Breeders Cup Classic. However, there comes a price when it is worth taking a chance. i.e. its chace of staying (all be it a small one) has been underestimated by bookmakers and punters.
Every horse has a price to back and a price to lay, whether they are doubtful stayers or not. Because punters and bookmakers have taken a view they will not stay, that has pushed them out to a now (in my opinion) backable price.
If anyone wants to lay these two and wants to give me 50/1 I’d take it.
Mark
Value Is EverythingAll the big Newmarket trainers get them well handicapped when they want to. Prescott, Curley and Martin are just about the only ones who take regular stick for it…for some reason
Another angle on the correct distance/conditions argument is that it’s dependent against the strength of opposition. The original post infers that horses are competing against horses of ‘more or less’ equal ability. For instance if you put Marchand D’Or in a 12 furlong race against Group 1 opponents he’d struggle, but if he took on selling platers it’s likely that he could stick with them for most of the race then have enough in hand to blitz them in the last 2 or 3 furlongs. That doesn’t make Marchand D’Or a 12 furlong horse but would be an example, admittedly extreme, of the trainer exploiting an opportunity at the ‘wrong distance’.
The same applies to suitable going. I’ve seen horses win on fast ground when they were clearly uncomfortable on it, and others win on unsuitably soft ground simply by being a good deal better than the rest. Anyone looking at their record will see a win under the conditions, thus meaning that before serious investigation the conditions appear ‘right’ for the horse.
Name many other factors that affect a horse’s performance and there will always be those races where class or circumstance overcomes conditions.
The bottom line is that it’s why we spend time analysing the form book.
Rob
Barry Hills used this tactic to good effect but that was years ago I don’t know if he still does it. I myself see no problem with it. I don’t see it as crookery at all.
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Perhaps ‘cheating’ is the wrong term to use, not least because no rules are being broken, but it is not all that difficult to perceive it in such a way when trainers are making obvious, deliberate attempts to deceive the handicapper.
As I said before it’s an impossible area of racing to police as any one of a dozen other factors could be put forward to explain a horse’s performance (and, given some of the ridiculous explanations the BHA accepts on a day-to-day basis, there’d be little point in trying to enforce it). But, when a horse has ‘form’ over sprint trips, runs only three times in order to qualify for a handicap mark, is upped markedly on their first outing the following season and is heavily backed before trotting in, it should lead to someone having the option to ask questions.
And no, ap, it’s not only ‘cheating’ when Mark Prescott does it, but as he is generally considered to be the most blatant exponent of the practice he serves as a sufficiently pertinent example. As for the issue of maidens and pedigree, I don’t believe that I suggested that anything could, or indeed needed to, be done with respect to horses being run over trips which would seem to contradict their breeding. Horses do, and will, sometimes excel over apparently unsuitable distances and to chastise anyone on the basis of theory would be impossibly unfair. However, when such instances are ‘obvious’ after the fact then we’re into a whole different territory.
I don’t follow Flat racing, but even I know that Prescott has been known to campaign his runners over too-short trips, before upping them considerably in distance once they’re handicapped.
If such tactics are well-known, or indeed “obvious”, then what is the problem? The only people who might be on the receiving end, are those that fail to research the form book – otherwise it’s completely harmless, isn’t it?
i think it falls into Schooling on the racetrack grassy…..which in the real world is carried out by every trainer in the land!
Is running them on different ground than their perceived best cheating?
Its best form might be on flat tracks, so does that mean it should not run at Cheltenham?
Is running them with an apprentice cheating when its best form is with strong handling?
Is holding up a horse who is usually ridden prominently cheating?So Equitrack,
Are these any less "wrong"?
Value Is Everythingi think it falls into Schooling on the racetrack grassy…..which in the real world is carried out by every trainer in the land!
If the horses are trying to win the race (all be it over an inadequqte trip) how can it be schooling?
Was Generous being schooled over inadequate trips before he won the Derby?
I think this might fall in to the category of punters trying to blame trainers for not backing the winner themselves.
Just allow for improvement in performance in your calculations.
Get some knowledge of breeding (and temperament) and you can use it to your own advantage.Mark
Value Is EverythingI dont have an issue with it ginger…..its part of training a horse imho.
Realise that mate, just making the point if they are trying to win it can not be schooling.
Mark
Value Is EverythingIf I have a 2-y-old bred to stay 2M, can you tell me where I can find a 12F maiden for him this month – or are you saying that if the pedigree suggests the horse will be better over long distances, I’m forbidden to run it at two?
Quite so. Equally you’ll struggle to find many 2m4f+ hurdling opportunities in this country for juvenile hurdlers, until the small trickle of handicaps they’re eligible for come December-ish.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Whatever the age or distance, a horse has always to be run on its "merits", as well as obtaining best possible placing to remain within the rules of racing. The rules are not relevant to whether punters can see through the form or not – only on how the horse is entered, how it is ridden and how it runs. It cannot be schooled it must compete at all stages.
Possible meaning of merits: "on its merits on its intrinsic qualities or virtues". Intrinsic: "essential to the real nature of something". Intrinsic qualities: horse entered and ridden in accord with the real nature and qualities of the horse – not perverse races or race distances.
HRA evidence can now be retrospective.
Maybe the racing integrity issue is whether the Stewards enforce the rules sufficiently – but the rules are there.
H19 EXAMINATION OF PREVIOUS RUNS
In order to establish compliance with Rules 155, 157 and 158, the HRA give notice that, whilst there will be no departure from the current practice of Stewards enquiring on the day of the race when a horse appears not to have been run on its merits, it is not always until an apparent improvement is revealed that there is sufficient evidence to warrant an enquiry. The HRA have therefore decided to look more closely at a horse’s previous runs after the circumstances listed in either paragraphs 1 (a) or (b) below have occurred: 1.(a) If a horse wins a Handicap, Classified Stakes or Rating Related Maiden Race without having previously been placed in the first 4, a Stewards’ enquiry will be held automatically to ascertain whether the connections wish to put on record anything relating to earlier races or the past well being of the horse which in their view might have a significant bearing on any subsequent enquiry. The Stewards will merely note what is said and forward the comments of the connections to the HRA Office so that the riding of the horse in its earlier races can be reviewed in conjunction with this evidence;
(b) Other cases of marked improvement of any sort will be dealt with as above, unless there was a Rule 155, 157 and 158 enquiry after the horse’s previous race which led to an offence under the Rules being proved.
After the video recordings have been examined at the HRA Office, either the case will be referred to the Disciplinary Panel for an enquiry under Rules 155, 157 or 158, or, because there is no case to answer, the matter will be closed and those involved will be informed of the outcome.G. Moore runs The Shy Man tomorrow at Carlisle over 2m in anovice chase.
From its form it would appear to need a bare minimum of 2 1/2m ond more than likely 3m plus.
Its 2 wins being over 2 1/2 and 2m 6 1/2.
On its reappearance it ran over 2m at Hexham and only because it was so superior to every other runner in the field it came second.
Whilst appreciating the trainer and owner can run their horse wherever and whenever they want, is this not close to schooling in public, as I will eat my hat if it wins barring accidents to virtually every other runner in the field.
they were contesting on the day. Trust me, in bottomless ground there you need a 20f plus horse to win over 2 miles – they are the stiffest tracks in the country (well, maybe with the exception of Towcester).
As someone who had his first ever days racing under rules at the Carlisle October (a Saturday then) of 1965 (I was seven), I am very familiar with the stiffness of the track. Drive along side it on the main road if you are not the fittest of people, it will show the climb.
In think the whole point is that 2 mile at Carlisle requires a horse that gets considerably further especially on the kind of heavy ground the course can get. The same applies to Towcester and that should be taken into account. Nothing dishonest in it just the trainer doing his job of trying to win a race with this particular horse for these particular owners.
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I do hate it when people take things literally, respond to discussions with needlessly cynical remarks and fail to acknowledge what was actually said.
By the way, Ginge, how’s your argument for the black and white topic of value coming along?
I think to be fair to trainers they have to try and get some edge somewhere that is within the rules,and if that means running over the wrong distance as long as the horse has been given every chance to win personally i dont have a problem with that in fact i quite enjoy trying to read between the lines,and trying to figure what a trainer is doing,i think it is all part of trying to pick winners.
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