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Next Sunday will be a massive race for Sizing Europe. He is, to my eyes, the only horse that on form can beat Binocular at Cheltenham but he has gone out like he’s been shot on his last three runs. I was willing to forgive his defeat by Hardy in the Morgiana given his lack of a run but his run at Christmas was very disappointing. It was a messy race pace wise and he had a somewhat interrupted preparation but he had every chance two out and he didn’t go through with it for whatever reason.
Hopefully Henry De Bromhead has identified what is wrong with the horse because he is not a bridle horse. Given the amount of rain we’ve had in Ireland over the last week or so he’s bound to have conditions in his favour. I can’t see the ground suiting the likes of Jered, Harchibald, Sublimity or Won In The Dark so you’d think that the race is his for the taking but I won’t be backing him unless there’s significant market confidence in him.
It’ll be very interesting to see if Hurricane Fly is left in on Tuesday. Cousin Vinny was impressive enough again yesterday in dreadful conditions and I still think Willie might be tempted to run HF against the older horses to see if he’d have a chance in the Champion Hurdle.
De Bromhead has put in the same owners 97 rated Oscillating Oscar as a possible pacemaker.
Has to be doubtful that Mullins will want to run Hurricane Fly – especially if conditions are going to be very testing.
I’d have no worries about him acting on the ground, and I think he could go very close…….I just can’t see WPM wanting to take the risk of possibly bottoming the horse unnecessarily, so close to the Festival.
It’s looking by Betfair and the bookies that HF could well run here- he’d have a big chance.
I’ve taken some of Paddy’s 12-1 about Muirhead tonight. Looking through the field he’s the only one I can see coping well with the likely testing conditions (looks almost certain to be soft ground) outside of Sizing Europe, who I couldn’t back with stolen money. Sublimity, Jered, Harchi and Won in the Dark all want better ground than is likely next Sunday and I doubt if all of them will run.Sublimity is a much better horse on good ground tb. He doesn’t travel and jump as well when it’s heavy and he therefore struggles to see out the two miles.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/08/12/05/RACING_Fifth.html
If you wish to believe everything a trainer says go for it
Heavy ground is one thing, he’s only had 1 run in a poor race which he won in a canter so that wouldn’t tell any stories
He’s won twice on soft ground over hurdles including a champion hurdle and placed the other time to Punjabi by a head who had him cooked on their form lines anyway and was also 1/1 on soft in a listed race on the flat. Certainly not the profile of a horse who doesn’t handle softer conditions. He’s been beaten every time on a better surface over hurdles.
I don’t think they should deny him taking his chance if it comes up testing as i believe all ground comes the same to him
De Bromhead has put in the same owners 97 rated Oscillating Oscar as a possible pacemaker.
That’ll add further interest to the race if they do try to ensure a more searching pace in the earlier stages. You’d think it would make it a better test for Brave Inca also, who could still be interesting in top company on soft ground off a pace that demands plenty from the winner in terms of stamina.
If we get a race with a reasonable pace on for the conditions, allied to softer ground, it’ll shed more light on whether Nic Mordin and some others are right in their judgement about Sizing Europe. Mordin has written that he thinks Sizing Europe has stamina limitations and needs good ground to truly last home in top company.
I can see where Mordin is coming from on that point, but it would be interesting to know how he squares his view with Sizing Europe’s win in the Greatwood on rain affected ground and very poor weather conditions for the race. Arguably, the only horse of real merit SE beat in that race was Osana who was conceding weight to SE, but the race looked a reasonable enough test of stamina on poor ground, with the first two finishing well enough clear of the rest of the field.
If SE is showing signs in more recent races of struggling to get home, I think I would be more inclined to view it as likely to be a physical problem (breathing problem perhaps) rather than evidence of an intrinsic stamina issue with the horse. But SE can be quite a strong puller and it is just possible he is one of those horses that just doesn’t fire unless he gets sufficient pace and momentum around him to draw him into the race and trigger the higher gears he undoubtedly has. I tend to think SE gave his truest running when he beat Big Zeb impressively as a novice at Punchestown in 2007. The conditions of that race really seemed to suit – a big field, fair pace on, plenty of action around him, ridden prominently, hit the front and kicked for home comparatively early, and made excellent use of his high gear, long stride and power to burn off the opposition some way out.
SE was also very impressive in the AIG, but that was in a smaller field. In the Punchestown race (and to some extent in the Greatwood too), I thought SE particularly showed a real competitiveness and enthusiasm allied to his natural talent. He looked like he had the keeness and toughness of a champion in waiting. Not much evidence of toughness perhaps in his last three races, but then he may just be a tough and talented horse that is also fragile health wise or complicated in some other way.
On the topic of the best ground conditions for Sublimity, I remember his former trainer was never too clear on that subject. A couple of times from the quotes I have he expressed concerns about racing Sublimity on ground that was no worse that soft, while he is also on record as saying the horse needs some cut to be at his best. I suppose one way of squaring that would be to think that because Sublimity has had injury problems in the past he might find genuine good ground a bit too jarring to be at his best, while really soft ground would dent the advantage of his finishing speed and might be too big a test of his stamina. Yielding or marginally soft ground would perhaps be the optimum conditions for the horse??
(2:50) 14D Toshiba Irish Champion H’dle (Grade 1)
€78,000.00 ( 2m – 4yo+ )[MAX 30]
NHFrm
0u84- 1 Allez Petit Luis (FR) (CAMurphy) – . . (109)
1243- 2 Beau Michael (GB) (AMcGuinness) . (140)
6-23- 3 Brave Inca (CAMurphy) – . …………….. (160)
0138- 4 Hardy Eustace (DTHughes) – . ………. (159)
627f- 5 Larkwing (EMcNamara) – ……………… (138)
-054- 6 Muirhead (NMeade) – …………………… (157)
-000- 7 Oscillating Oscar (Hde Bromhead) – .. (97)
1017- 8 River Liane (FR) (TCooper) – ………… (141)
001/- 9 Silent Oscar (HRogers) – . ……………………..
1025- 10 Sizing Europe (Hde Bromhead) – . …. (163)
4221- 11 Sublimity (FR) (RAHennessy) – …….. (162)
7292- 12 Swiftmarc (CAMurphy) – . ……………… (113)
3142- 13 Won In The Dark (SJHarty) – . ……….. (157)Jered, Jazz Messenger and Harchibald taken out at the 5 day stage. Muirhead is likely an intended runner for Meade and Carberry though.
No Hurricane Fly is a bit disappointing. I’d say that’s completely ruled out any chance of him going for the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham.
I hope Silent Oscar takes his chance, looking likely now.
Silent Oscar wants much quicker ground imo, Red Evie, so tread carefully if he does go to post.
That wouldnt be a concern to me as it has won on Sft/Heavy ground before and ran well behind Brave Inca, the lay off is my biggest concern. I am going to back as I always do, just minimum stake though.
I suppose my pet hatewillwin again but I am sticking to my guns and backing Sizing Europe plusan EW bet on Muirhead who I think is about ready to pop upata big price.
Muirhead who I think is about ready to pop upata big price.
There’s something about the horses last performance that tells me he’ll appreciate as much cover as he can get. He was tossing his head around for the first few furlongs last time and pretty much threw it away there and then. I was still quite disappointed with the way his effort petered out when seemingly going quite well….I’ll give a, hopefully, slightly calmer and wiser Muirhead another go EW too.
For me ,if the going allows Won in the Dark to run, he will give a very good account of himself. Seems to have something in hand for me.
Can’t see this race have much baring on our Champion as the ground is likely to be bottomless after all the rain there will have been come Sunday. That more or less rules out Sublimity’s chances and Won in The Dark, both of whop have place claims come Cheltenham. Probably sets it up for Brave Inca or another complete wipeout with something hugely priced winning.
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