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I know from experience that value betting is not for the squeamish. The losing runs are horrendous and it’s no wonder he panics at times.
It stands to reason that not all big races are won by outsiders which makes what he attempts all the more meritorious. It’s the long term that counts and I understand he makes a profit.
Corm, that sounds like an interesting competition.
It was a great wee competition Maxilon. The premise was that I selected a likely Saturday Pricewise race midweek and contestants then selected a value horse(s), the goal being to make a long term profit. Pricewise did well as did several of TRF’s elite tipsters.
My own record was patchy, I’m afraid, although I think I was in profit. The thing which was remarkable was that if my selections coincided with Pricewise (I always selected before seeing his selections) then the results were fantastic.
I’ll try to dig out the thread(s) max but they may be long gone.
If there is interest I could run the comp again.
I have to agree with Davidbrady’s post.My biggest gripe with the Pricewise column is that they don’t keep a running record of his P/L’s. How they would do it is another thing, calender year or flat/jump seasons. It would be nice to see level stakes and advised stakes results. Never happen I’d say.
Seriously, just how many of you have got on a Pricewise horse at the price advertised.
I bet it’s less than 10%.
In my opinion, as soon as the bookies are aware of who Pricewise is putting up, they slash the odds, with or without cash for the horse.
Mike
I’d be well up for that one, Corm. Something to pass the second half of the season.
As regards Tom being slagged, he handles the widespread criticism well.
Some guy named "Reg" had a pop at Matt Chapman the other night on ATR Stateside. He really got under his skin.
Viewer Reg had made the e-mailed accusation that the suntanned ATR presenter always seemed to select favourites.
For the next hour Matt kept referring to Reg in increasingly sneering terms. I’d seldom heard such defensiveness in a presenter. For a time, Reg was having his five minutes of fame. It was quite enthralling. I thought Matt was going to tell Reg to **** right off at one point.
As if proving the point, Matt said later, "I’m all over the three in this. (a 4/6 chalk). Naturally, Reg will accuse me of picking the favourite, but it will WIN so, so what?"
Whoever Reg was, he wasn’t far from the mark imo. And several other noted ATR presenters have a similar play safe shorty bias. At least Tom is innovative if nothing else.
Are you seriously giving Tom Segal credit for not picking favourites in the Pricewise column?
BTW I should add that I do agree with your point about certain ATR presenters. Not sure who is to blame though. Is it the pundit’s laziness or the channel’s directors ‘requiring’ tips for every race? Or even the people who do actually back what is being tipped (assuming such people have managed to live long enough to earn money to lose)?
Are you seriously giving Tom Segal credit for not picking favourites in the Pricewise column?
It would defeat the object if he did. Under Coton, Collier and now Segal, the objective of Pricewise is to beat the favourite.
There have been times though, to be fair, when he has selected the obvious.
Agree with that. I can see his point that the Fav ‘can’ be value, but he certainly seems to have taken that view more than I can remember any of his predecessors.
I agree. Tom is much more likely to tip a shorter priced horse.
You’ve got a point overall on reflection. Since Pricewise, a lot of the RP tipsters, (with the exception of old school, winner-is-a-winner stalwarts like Adrian Cook and Frank Carter), have been heavily influenced by the value approach.
Whereas old school bettors relied too much on the obvious, modern value informed bettors sometimes ignore it – to their cost.
As I’ve said on here before, I reckon criticism of Pricewise is very harsh. I don’t follow him but have huge respect for anyone who can tip in the public domain with all the flak that entails and be successful. I don’t think his reasoning is as important as his record, which is top class. For the first time I started putting daily tips on the Lays and Plays recently and it’s amazing how much pressure it adds if you tip a few losers in public (16/1 on Sunday helped improve things). To all the Pricewise knockers I say- prove yourselves profitable in public over several months then have a go at him.
carvillshill
Presumably you are also of the opinion that only people with experience on horse back can pass comment on whether a jockey has given a good/bad ride and that only ex-players can analyse a game of football.
Most people on here don’t so much criticise Segal’s tipping prowess, I haven’t and made a point of saying that I wasn’t criticising that. My problem is the poor journalism he produces alongside his tips. You may not think his reasoning is important, however if he is producing a 700 word piece to accompany his selections then I completely disagree.
How do you write 700 words on a hunch though? I’m sure we’ve all backed horses on intuition or whatever you want to call and if I was asked to construct a piece of prose detailing my rationale I nkow I would struggle. He tips to win, not to produce a piece of prose detailing his complex rationale (Which he doesn’t really have)…
Personally I like Segal – He seems an honest bloke to me who says what he thinks and as someone else alluded to, it takes a bit of balls to do that every week in a national publication.
Well, if part of his contract is to produce 700 words alongside his tips, he should be able to, at least, analyse or prefabricate the reasoning behind his "hunch".
Colin
Yeah but we don’t all get our picture splashed all over the front of the trade paper do we? If Pricewise is all it’s made out to be, then why don’t the RP show us what the level stakes results is? And at SP too!
I went to school with Tom in Weybridge. He is a very nice guy who knows a thing or two about horses.I always read his column in the RP. I think alot of people miss the point about what his column is all about. It’s about finding a value alternative to the favoured horses sometimes at long odds. You only have to look at the NAPS table at the back of the paper to realise that most of these so called tipsters have a terrible strike rate usually picking very short favs. I wish people would give Tom a break.
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