- This topic has 101 replies, 27 voices, and was last updated 4 years, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
Nubre Negra is the dark horse for the Champion , I’ve played him e.w for March and with fitness onside he could give Shiskin something to think about at Kempton
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
An on song Shishkin will beat Nuba Negra imo. Look at how close Politologue was to Nubra Negra in the Schloer. If Shiskin has progressed from his novice days in the usual Henderson style he does with his 2 milers, Politologue would be beaten miles by him.
Mike Negra will come on for that run , if Shiskin progresses he should win the Champion , the only niggle I have is why they,ve messed with his wind , they,be not been happy with something and it might explain why his prep is a bit behind , there’s also that nagging feeling that the yard isn’t exactly firing either , if he is going to be beaten and hendo won’t take the Irish on then Negra will be the one to do it
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Seems odd to me that people are just assuming Shishkin should win the March race. Energumene in particular is completely unexposed, and Barry Geraghty (a man who knows a thing or two about the Henderson Yard and two milers) was very strong on Energumene turning Shishkin over last season.
Could Shishkin have hammered Allaho over 2m like Chacun Pour Soi did at Punchestown?
Nube Negra lopoks the part to me, and could well be be on the improve. Improving from a season where he was arguably an unlucky runner up in March makes him a player to me.
Shishkin has as much to prove as anything else, and more than a couple. If connections would let him try and prove it, we could have a really good 2m chasing season, even if the programme is ludicrous.
BUY THE SUN
I think he has every chance of being the best British horse knowing the trainer’s record with these type of horses. As for the Irish opposition we won’t know until they take each other on.
No idea if he will go here or be kept fresh for Leopardstown- he’s probably better left handed- and he’d need to take a major step forward- but I wonder if connections might be tempted to run Captain Guinness here. He’s out of a Presenting mare and shouldn’t mind a bit of nice ground, and the forecast for the south east gives a bit of rain this week but not loads. The trainer has won and placed in this race before and A Plus Tard’s successful recent G1 raid might embolden them to take a pot shot at this. He reappearance run was encouraging and he’s 20s for this with Sky (2 places), 16s elsewhere. I had a free bet to use so stuck it on him.
Taken a chance on Defi Du Seuil here.
It’s obviously well documented how bitterly disappointing he’s been, including last time, but I though he travelled ok until heading for home.
He obviously found nothing then, but first run after a fair layoff, and he was clearly well out of sorts before that layoff anyway.
In a race that could still cut up yet, I think 25’s is worth chancing on a horse who’s win in this two years back, was sandwiched by wins in The Shloer and Clarence House.
If, and I know it’s a big if, that he just needed that run at Ascot, then I’m actually ok with risking him, and he might still have something to offer.
Hobbs was bemused by the run, but he appears to be persevering anyway.
I know a lot of people (justifiably) gave up on him a long time ago, but I’ve never bet him before, so better late than never, even if he appears to be on the drift already.
Defi Du Seuil 25’s
Hope you bring him some luck vtc with your first bet on him. I’ve never backed him either in past
VF x
2 horse race and Nubre in my eyes still has the potential to improve , chacun has some strong form but he,s 9 and still can’t forget that Cheltenham run , Nubre is more than fair value
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
If chacun is fit he will win
He absolutely destroyed nube negra at punchestown when reverted to more aggressive tactics took him completely out of his comfort zone
And Nubre beat him at Cheltenham , Chacun is beatable and no value
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Well, not exactly HDLG, if CPS runs to 176 then nube negra cant win, hes had 9 chase starts and supposedly ran to 168 LTO (he didnt) beating a near 11yo politologue who has bled multiple times, so unless he can find another 9lbs (he cant) then like FF said CPS is will win, the question of value evs for CPS on ratings and form is good value for me, id happily take that. I have done anyway.
Nube negras price however is not, his breeding does not suggest 170+ in any shape or form, has never ran to 170, and even at CPS WORST run over fences, he could only beat him by a length, on chacuns lto peak form he had him 25 lengths in his rear view, 9/4 is a terrible price irrespective of the result, id rather back greaneteen.
What price would you have chacun out of curiosity if you think evs is terrible value? He should be closer to 4/7 IMO
Graeneteen at 7/1 seems value for someone who won the Celebration Chase in great style and was very close in the Champion Chase. Second run after the Haldon Gold Cup, where he had to give more then a stone away to very talented rivals.
Graeneteen 7/1
Think it’s more than a two horse race as many people on social media have suggested and think Greaneteen will come on a ton for his return. However I still think He will be beaten into third haha!
Chacun is the sexier horse here with the trainer/owner combo and the fact that the Irish horses dominated the British trained runners in top graded races last season. I also think Nube Negra is almost being disregarded by some because of CPS’s sexy profile despite beating him at Cheltenham.
Having said all that I just feel as though CPS just didnt see the race out up the Cheltenham hill and with such a small field here and a lack of pace he will dominate the race from the front, pretty much like he did at Punchestown.
The lack of a run is of course a doubt and I was really impressed with both Nube Negra’s return and Greaneteen’s Celebration Chase win last season. But I think Willie will have CPS primed for this and he will go out in front and wont see another rival.
I dont see Hitman being good enough at this stage in his career to trouble the three above and Captain Guinness’ jumping will be put to the test. Any mistake will be punished by this lot and although he was a novice last season his jumping was littered with errors.
Fascinating race and although I’m disappointed no Shishkin (who I love!) it’s still great to see three top 2 mile chasers face off.
1st Chacun
2nd Nube Negra
3rd GreaneteenI wont be having a bet in the race btw so not looking at it from a betting angle just who I think will win!
Ham will Chacun run to 176 ? ,he didn’t at Cheltenham , as for saying Nubre still isn’t improving , don’t agree he can’t , he,s also race fit so it may well give him an edge , part of me wants Chacun to run well this season so he,s goes to Cheltenham again and I can bet against him and play value e.w , I’ve got Nubre e.w for the CC
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
I dont buy the chacun didnt get up the hill shtick
They went no pace and it turned into a sprint
Hes won races run much faster that were much greater tests of stamina at 2 miles
Id be thinking they got the tactics wrong and/or he just had an off day at this stage personally
He usually needs his first run so I wouldnt mind him losing today then I’d get 10/1+ on him to win the CC which id be happy to add to energumene
The fitness advantage for Nubre is a major plus given that Chacun is having his first run and even though it is a G1 I am sure they will have left something to work on – also he will likely have to make the running so Patrick will have to judge it to where he goes just fast enough not to make him a sitting duck to his main stalking rival. Looking forward to seeing him jump down that back straight at 2m speed.
Sadly with the sun shinning bright at Sandown it is likely that the Pond Fence will not be jumped today – funnily enough I was watching a few old Sandown races on You Tube and several of them were run in bright sunlight (notably Sprinter’s Tingle Creek) and what do you know they all jumped the Pond Fence and not a mistake was made by any horse.
I know I know, it is a safety thing but it is still frustrating when it is seemingly almost a regular thing to take out one if not several fences – fortunately the weather at Aintree is utterly miserable so no such issue there
.
.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.