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Are you going to Goodwood tomorrow Barry?
I’ve already backed Harbinger for the Arc but….
If you don’t think Harbinger is the real deal, put your money where your mouth is and lay me£100 @ 3/1 for the Arc
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Make it 7/2 and I’ll have more.
O.K.
That was a bit daft of me saying 3/1 and 7/2 when nothing like that is available.What about 9/4 Barry?
Value Is Everything
- Total Posts 17716
horses A & B run and
win
different divisions 7F maiden race same day half hour apart.
horse A runs 2 seconds faster
2 weeks later both meet same track same going same weights same jockeys same distance.
in a match do you want to bet big odds on horse A.
if it happens look me up,
times mean diddly squat
If you truly believed race times mean diddly squat then why bother adding in the demand that both A & B win, why not only make your second demand that A runs 2s faster.
If they don’t mean didly squat why are so may track records held by inferior animals?……..The fact the track record Harbinger broke wasn’t held by Nijinsky or Grundy etc it was previously held by a handicapper.
People are talking about athletes on here which has got bog all to do with horse racing. World records are very often broken in races set up for attempts at world records horse races never are.
Think Zenyatta and how Mike Smith rides her……he rides her to beat what’s in front of her.if they run slow the time is slow if they run fast the time is fast.
Surprised by some of the sweeping generalisations and dismissal of using time as a tool in horse racing.
I spent 3 years doing speed ratings on a daily basis , a new job and young family put an end to my ability to continue properly, as well as the loss of edge as time figures became more widely woven into price.
It was a very enjoyable process and it had a great many side benefits apart form the speed ratings outputs.
I learned quickly about false favourites, which clerk of the course to believe about watering and rail movements, which courses were more similar than at first glance and the buying policy of major owners (it got so I could predict, with reasonable certainty, which 2yo’s Godolphin were going to buy at the end of the season as their use of time figures/grade of race was so transaprent), were among the enjoyable benefits.A couple of points i would like to make
1. Times are used already much more than some contributers on here think, to shape markets. You may be dismissive of times but those that are framing markets have already affected the price you are seeing.
2. Secondly the use of times is much more an art than a science, with sceptics focussing to much on the numerical output..finishing time as cited above A vs B, or speed rating. Its the large input of all the contributory factors that make the use of time so rewarding (mentally and sometimes financially).Timeform is rightly lauded for its insight and written communication on the puzzle that is a horse race, time makes up an important but not overwhelming part of that process..using times is just good fun…blindly following overall race times is not.
Of course, time doesn’t mean everything…but to say it means nothing is ludicrous.
The fact the track record Harbinger broke wasn’t held by Nijinsky or Grundy…
Might have something to do with the fact that both those horses had long since been dead when the Ascot track was reconfigured in 2005.
- Total Posts 17716
Figure of speech and hardly the point Prudence is it?
horses A & B run and
win
different divisions 7F maiden race same day half hour apart.
horse A runs 2 seconds faster
2 weeks later both meet same track same going same weights same jockeys same distance.
in a match do you want to bet big odds on horse A.
if it happens look me up,
times mean diddly squat
If you truly believed race times mean diddly squat then why bother adding in the demand that both A & B win, why not only make your second demand that A runs 2s faster.
If they don’t mean didly squat why are so may track records held by inferior animals?……..The fact the track record Harbinger broke wasn’t held by Nijinsky or Grundy etc it was previously held by a handicapper.
People are talking about athletes on here which has got bog all to do with horse racing. World records are very often broken in races set up for attempts at world records horse races never are.
Think Zenyatta and how Mike Smith rides her……he rides her to beat what’s in front of her.if they run slow the time is slow if they run fast the time is fast.
Exactly right.
Times on occasions can contribute to the selection process (certainly in sprints) but to use them and speed figures as gospel is as has already been said the quickest way to the poor house.
- Total Posts 17716
Depends how you interpret them and it helps to use them when asking the right questions because then 9 times out of 10 you’ll inevitably get the right answer.
Are you going to Goodwood tomorrow Barry?
I’ve already backed Harbinger for the Arc but….
If you don’t think Harbinger is the real deal, put your money where your mouth is and lay me£100 @ 3/1 for the Arc
.
Make it 7/2 and I’ll have more.
O.K.
That was a bit daft of me saying 3/1 and 7/2 when nothing like that is available.What about 9/4 Barry?
Thanks for agreeing to lay me some more 2/1 Barry.
A man who puts his money where his mouth is.
Value Is EverythingThe "course record" is only of minor importance. Of course handicappers do hold course records.
At Royal Ascot this year record times were going in every other race. Which means the times indicated how firm the going was rather than how good the horses were.
On Saturday, Harbinger’s time was exceptionally fast compared to others on the day / meeting. Even allowing for it being a group 1.
When using time as a guide, you have to look at what other horses do on similar going. The going was not that firm on Saturday.
Value Is EverythingTimeform is rightly lauded for its insight and written communication on the puzzle that is a horse race, time makes up an important but not overwhelming part of that process..using times is just good fun…blindly following overall race times is not.
Of course, time doesn’t mean everything…but to say it means nothing is ludicrous.
Good post Shabby
At which point this familiar Bullism seems appropriate:
a timefigure doesn’t necessarily tell you how good a horse is: what it actually tells you is how bad it isn’t.
from:
http://www.timeform.com/show_article.asp?num=1101
(public domain)
- Total Posts 17716
The going was not that firm on Saturday.
I agree, well for Ascot standards anyway;
1.73 28th April
3.09 8th May
3.29 15th June
4.99 16th June
3.24 17th June
3.74 18th June
3.99 19th June
2.01 9th July
2.59 10th July
2.97 23rd July
3.07 24th July
2.98 25th Julyhorses A & B run and win different divisions 7F maiden race same day half hour apart.
horse A runs 2 seconds faster
2 weeks later both meet same track same going same weights same jockeys same distance.
in a match do you want to bet big odds on horse A.
if it happens look me up, times mean diddly squat
workforce track record epsom easiest derby winner in years, super star.
harbinger track record ascot easiest KG winner in years super star???
thats why there’s bookmakers
A fine piece of misinformation there to the public Barry! The day times mean nothing to me is the day i start being a Mug Punter,you know the sort Barry they are the ones Bookmakers love,you lot hate the informed Punter,to which there are several on here,in fact any consistently winning Punter will get his account closed and yet for every one really successful punter there is a 1000 mugs,its those that keep racing going thankfully!We"ll see how long it takes for the Derby and King George records to both be broken again!
Barry told me today, he hates punters.
Take it from that it’s all of us. Winners, and losers!
You can’t blame him.
When one punter complains to him he’s only going 1/5 odds in a 20 runner handicap.
He did not realise Barry was offering better prices (smaller over-round) than his 1/4 odds rivals. So was in fact offering better value to the win only backer. Indeed, better value to the each way bettor too.
Not that Mr. Punters Pal Big Mac would see it that way.
Value Is EverythingBarry told me today, he hates punters.
Take it from that it’s all of us. Winners, and losers!
You can’t blame him.
I doubt very much Barry hates his regular mugs that consistently maintain the lifestyle he is accustomed to Ginge!
Reading the time figures people post and publish in this country, you soon feel like a teacher marking exams where everyone has copied each other’s wrong answers.
They all seem to trace back to the same old Bull.
The method seems to go something like this:
1) give Harbinger or Hawk Wing or Kauto Star or whoever a manual handicapping mark.
2) alot him the same mark as a speed figure give or, more commonly, take a few pounds
3) rig all the going allowoances and whatever other allowances as apprporiate so that the speed figure tallies with what you previously decided it was. Mention ‘wind vector analysis’
if anyone asks why your going allowances etc are all over the place.4) proclaim that not only is this the greatest horse since the last greatest one, but that its mark is absolutely solid as it’s also backed up by time
5) stand back and watch it never win another race. Find the next big thing and go back to bullet point one in a motion as circular as your arguments
And they also probably said the same thing the FIRST time Arkle, Flying Bolt, Ribot, Brigadier Gerard, Mill Reef, Dancing Brave etc. put up their first "great" performance.
Did Shergar put up more than one exceptional performance?
It’s easy to mention the Hawk Wing’s of this world. Who incidentally, was injured at Ascot after his Newbury rout. So we don’t know what he might have gone on to achieve.
Of course it’s possible Harbinger is over-rated. But the evidence as it stands suggests he’s a 140 horse, or at least high 130’s.
MOST horses who are "thought" to be this good, actually go on to prove it.
Value Is Everything
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