February 13, 2020 at 20:48 #1482845LD73Participant
- Total Posts 1341
There was no other weight that he could have been given if you look at it in the cold light of day but I do think that Native River should also have been alloted top weight as well.
Lets face facts the race isn’t the ultimate jumping/staying test it was pre modification days, so there really is no excuse in not running a sound jumping long distance staying chaser let alone one that happens to have won the damn race for the last two years.
Fed up hearing O’Leary bitch and moan about this if I am honest as we all know that baring injury and assuming he ticks the qualification box by running in the Cross Country race he will line up on the big day. O’Leary only has the weight angle to use as a reason to gripe about the race as we know the horse has no problem jumping the modified course, he probably finds the Cross Country race more of a jumping challenge than Aintree these days.
Very unpopular opinion (and I fully expect to take plenty of flack for voicing this) but there is a part of me that doesn’t want to see him (or any other horse for that matter) win 3 Nationals as a lot of the general public and/or those less educated racegoers will see it as emulating Red Rum’s feat, which is quite frankly sacrilege to even think they are comparable…..could you just imagine what O’Leary would say to TR having to carry 12st or 12st 7lbs in today’s version of the race let alone a full fat Grand National.
TR is a truly remarkable horse in his own right and a much more naturally talented/versatile racehorse than Red Rum could ever have hoped to be and I know he can’t help that the race has been altered over the years but I do foresee existing/future generations growing up with tales of TR’s Grand National exploits and laughing mockingly at their old ancient relative sitting in the corner mumbling about how he couldn’t hold a candle to Red Rum.
Sorry about the rant but been thinking about this a lot more recently and needed to vent some…….February 14, 2020 at 09:28 #1482865isinglassParticipant
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Don’t see a need for an apology LD73 – probably summed up exactly what a lot of people are thinking ; happy to include myself in that.
Wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if there was a “slight setback” to prevent TR to run at Cheltenham and therefore not be qualified for the National whicb would give them something else to moan about.
( though to be fair why a previous winner needs to qualify only the fools in charge can explain )
I.February 14, 2020 at 11:31 #1482875apracingParticipant
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I’m with you 100% about O’Leary and his intensely annoying brother. But I must protest the idea that Tiger Roll is more talented/versatile than Red Rum.
Presumably this is based on Tiger Roll winning the N H Chase (aka the 4 miler) and the Cross Country Chase at the Festival. But neither of those options was available to Red Rum. The 4 miler was restricted to maidens in the 70’s, and his wins over hurdles would have ruled him out of that – and the X Country abomination didn’t arrive until the mid 90’s.
Yes, Tiger Roll won the Triumph Hurdle, and he was therefore a better hurdler than Red Rum. But Tiger Roll never won on the flat and he’s never won a Scottish National or finished second in a Hennessey either. Nor was Red Rum given a quiet time before his National runs – in the 1975/76 season, he ran eight times over fences before Aintree, usually carrying more than 12st, and he also took in the Whitbread after his second to Rag Trade.
The following season, it was seven runs before Aintree and even after that historic third win, as a 12-y-old, he went on to run in the Scottish National.
By contrast, Tiger Roll is is raced like a member of a protected species. In the three years since his N H Chase win, Tiger Roll has run nine times over fences and four of those hardly count as they were in X Country races.February 14, 2020 at 12:12 #1482876Ex RubyLightParticipant
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Is there anyone out there who seriously thinks that O’Leary is concerned about the Tiger Roll GN mark? Or even to think that TR will miss the race? It’s just empty talk and he even cosiders himself very lucky to run him off that mark. I’m quite sure about that.February 14, 2020 at 12:22 #1482877KevMcParticipant
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I’d disagree with the staying test comment. They go faster now than ever with the fences being easier so stamina is required more than ever IMO.February 14, 2020 at 12:36 #1482881GoldenMiller34Participant
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I disagree with you, KevMc! They often go a more moderate pace in the earlier stages now and, more significantly, with the fences being easier each of the 30 takes less effort to jump thus allowing horses to conserve stamina.
I agree with most of the comments immediately above. I rated Tiger Roll’s performance 171 last year and the handicapper has him to run off 170 in 2020, which is entirely fair. (See my earlier posts on this thread) Tiger Roll is 20+ pounds/lengths inferior to the likes of Crisp, Red Rum and L’Escargot on their best GN performances.February 14, 2020 at 13:11 #1482885Ex RubyLightParticipant
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Tiger Roll confirmed for the GNFebruary 14, 2020 at 13:53 #1482886LD73Participant
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TR is a dual grade 2 winner over hurdles and mixed it with the likes of both Hurricane Fly & Faugheen in his time and it is from that perspective that I made the comment about better natural talent/versatility although I must say had it been around at the time the thought of Red Rum tackling a Cross Country race would have been most intriguing.
For me Rummy is (and it is not even remotely close) the far the more durable/tougher horse (but then the better class horses for the most part these days are wrapped up in cotton wool and run maybe 4-5 times a year if that) especially when you consider he did the Aintree/Ayr National double both under top weight and ran in 5 straight Nationals which amounts to over 22 miles and jumping 150 of the most fearsome version of the fences. O’Leary threw his toys out of the pram about TR going up 6lbs from his first to second win so just imagine what he would have said had he gone up 23 lbs like Rummy when he did the double!
Not saying you don’t need stamina to win the National these days but with the fences made considerably easier than they were in Rummy’s day and the distance shortened and the weights being reduced it attracts more of the graded staying type chasers who tend to be a bit quicker rather than being those out & out staying types. Unless the ground came up very testing I think horse like Rummy, Aldaniti, Corbiere, Rubstic, West Tip etc would likely struggle to get in the first four of the race under todays conditions.February 14, 2020 at 14:08 #1482888greenasgrassParticipant
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Is there anyone out there who seriously thinks that O’Leary is concerned about the Tiger Roll GN mark? Or even to think that TR will miss the race? It’s just empty talk and he even cosiders himself very lucky to run him off that mark. I’m quite sure about that.
I expect the whingeing is in aid of keeping the marks of next year’s Giggi National horses, and possibly some of this year’s Cheltenham handicap horses, at an optimal level. In a “squeaky wheel gets the grease” way.February 14, 2020 at 22:04 #1482917GingertipsterParticipant
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These owners think the biased English handicapper/s is/are putting their horses up unfairly. After all… Gigginstown have only won three of the last four Grand Nationals.
On last year’s winning distances Tiger Roll was always going to be given something between 169 and 172. Could’ve been worse… And even now the dual Grand National winner could be well handicapped!
Like the year before, jumping the last fence looked likely to win by further than the 2 3/4 margin. Although true, some will naturally find more than others up the run-in; doesn’t mean one that travels well is neccessarily any better than one pushed along some way out who finds plenty for pressure. However; also possible (and in TR’s case imo probable) the horse idled quite badly. Having quite a bit more in hand than distances back to second and third. Idling is a trait in many a prolific handicapper because it’s harder for the assessor to get the horse’s measure.
imo Tiger Roll could prove fairly well handicapped if all is well with him.
Handicappers very rarely take idling in to account… Especially when owners are likely to jump out of their prams whenever their horse gets a lb more than they (publicly at least) believe it should. My guess is the O’Leary’s are inwardly delighted with Tiger Roll’s mark.value is everythingFebruary 16, 2020 at 14:01 #1483072FinalFurlong91Participant
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Lovely prep run for Cheltenham
Absolutely tanked along
With a clear round a third cross country is hisFebruary 16, 2020 at 18:05 #1483084SirHarryLewisParticipant
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Ah, he would be looking for a gift if thought he was entitled to less weight. The handicapper seems quite kind to Native River though.
I see your point on the Idling. Ive looked at it a few times and Im thinking maybe he barely stays the distance. Im basing this purely on how he runs in other races though.
Overall, I took him on last year and then realised on the day that the opposition had a lot of question marks about them. He really did improve last year and its a lot to ask for more this year.
It makes for interesting betting though. He will I assume carry the housewives money which means he will go off shorter than serious gamblers would look at?
SHLFebruary 16, 2020 at 21:39 #1483108GingertipsterParticipant
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Agreed; I’ll be very interested in Native River if turning up on the day, SHL.
Got to remember though, times have changed. Grand National is even less of a lottery than it once wasn’t… Nowadays very few housewives left and betting driven by a market other than bookmakers; a market full of punters believing they know right. Tiger Roll may be under-estimated again and be a price us serious gamblers/investors are again interested in… on the machine.value is everything
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