April 11, 2019 at 21:33 #1417074GoldenMiller34Participant
- Total Posts 1134
Thank you, Ginger, I am doing that as I’m typing up but I doubt there will be massive change and I’ve outlined above why the ratings organisations in their infancy were wildly inaccurate. It’s a fun aspect of the site, there will be far more detailed explanations on each year’s page, and I hope it will stimulate debate.
I have looked at previous (and future) form, especially in major races and have done so through the lens of Grand Nationals – a unique test and often a target race in which horses give their only true running of a season. It stands to reason that if a horse (Crisp) puts up a time 20s faster than a series of times in the 1930s, one of which was the previous record, carrying 12st, the performance should be rated exceptionally highly. It’s not as if donkeys were running in the intervening years. As I said, time isn’t everything and there are many other factors to be taken into account (not least the Firm going in 1973) which I have done. Bear in mind a conservative calculation is 3L per second. 173, I don’t think so!November 14, 2019 at 21:17 #1474849November 14, 2019 at 21:34 #1474851moehatParticipant
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Going to worry myself sick until I know he’s ok; might be a minor problem but any procedure isn’t without risk….November 14, 2019 at 21:49 #1474854Nathan HughesParticipant
- Total Posts 21418
That’s not great as a National prep
I’d be surprised if he runs. The bookies aren’t taking any chances with him at 6’s geez
at least Skybet are non runner no betMember since March 2008November 14, 2019 at 22:27 #1474861
You’re not the only one Moe.
We’ve discussed it before Nath, that’s why that NRNB was so important.January 30, 2020 at 13:14 #1481282
I’m in two minds about this.
On one hand I want to see him go for the hat trick, but on the other I’d love to see him bow out at Cheltenham.
Should know more a week on TuesdayFebruary 11, 2020 at 10:47 #1482621
Well, that’s it now a “Week on Tuesday”.
We’ll know soon what he’s got, and I haven’t changed my stance……..I just don’t know whether I want him to go for a third attempt or not.
Regardless of what mark he gets today, I think it all hinges on how he fares at Navan on Sunday.
I commented last year that he looked a lot more forward on his seasonal debut, but obviously he’s had a setback this time. If he flopped on Sunday, which I hope doesn’t happen, then that would be it. If he bolts up again, I think it will be all systems go.February 11, 2020 at 11:36 #1482627FinalFurlong91Participant
- Total Posts 1255
I doubt he even gets close to winning on sunday
It’s just a prep run to get him right for Cheltenham, basically a racecourse gallop is what elliot said
They werent even expecting him to win last year and he had already had a run to blow the cobwebs away thenFebruary 11, 2020 at 13:33 #1482636
He ended up getting 170, so it’ll be interesting to see the fallout now.
He’s Top Weight along with Delta WorkFebruary 11, 2020 at 17:45 #1482650Ex RubyLightParticipant
- Total Posts 1409
There should be NO DISCUSSION at all. He’s won twice under top weight, they’re talking about immortality, just win the f*****g race no matter what the weight is. If you take the easier fences into consideration compared to those in the 70s and 80s, then you’ll admit that jumping round under 11-10 is still a lot easier than it was in those two decades.
Just shut up and get that one necessary chase run into the books, otherwise a lot of ante-post bets will be ruined and also the GN itself if he weren’t to run.February 11, 2020 at 18:07 #1482654Cork All StarParticipant
- Total Posts 183
I think his weight is entirely fair. O’Leary is just being awkward for the sake of it to suggest running him in the Bowl on the Thursday. I am sure the Aintree crowd would make their voices heard about that!February 11, 2020 at 19:34 #1482668adminKeymaster
- Total Posts 698
I thought they’d give him some more ‘compression’ but you can’t really argue with the handicapper on it. I think he’ll face a very, very tough task. Would love to see him line up though.February 11, 2020 at 22:08 #1482677Red Rum 77Participant
- Total Posts 1298
Will Tiger Roll line up?
They haven’t got their compression of the weights like they wanted. However the temptation of making history could be too strong. I personally don’t think the any value, but I thought that last year still backed him anyway and it was only because I doubled him up with the Lincoln winner that I got a decent return. Don’t think I’ll be that lucky this year.February 11, 2020 at 23:10 #1482679Nathan HughesParticipant
- Total Posts 21418
O’Leary is a strange chap at times
but even he wouldn’t deny us the chance of seeing this horse attempt history
only way I think he won’t run is if something wrong with the horse nearer the time
Elliot is a bit of a genius with this horse, I’m sure he’ll have him spot onMember since March 2008February 12, 2020 at 17:25 #1482756He Didnt Like GroundParticipant
- Total Posts 261
He,s missed the chance to run in the GC , Aas a few have said with his knee issue we don’t know 100% that’s he,s still the horse he was , a 80% Tiger can win the CC , it’ll add to his already great Cheltenham record but if he is fit it’s all about the GN , if he does get there I could see him going off at a silly price ….2-1/5-2 on the day …
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