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Time for a run through my Cheltenham bets and fancies. I’ve increased my ante post book year on year and this year has been by far my busiest, luckily there haven’t been too many as of yet: Vautour in the Arkle, a Vautour/Faugheen double, a Don Poli and Wounded Warrior double, and a small punt on Djakadam in the Ryanair. I’ve also backed Beat That in the World Hurdle but with the benefit o NRNB. Most of my bets have been mentioned somewhere on the forum over the course of the season. Here’s Tuesday’s thoughts…
SUPREME: I’ve backed two horses here, L’Ami Serge win at 7/1 and Shaneshill e/w at 12/1 . I’m happy enough to be with those two. Douvan could be anything and while you have to respect the vibes coming from the stable, he looks a bit short at below 2/1 now. The Henderson horse is another could be anything animaland looks about the right price now. I think there’s still some value in Shaneshill, who was an excellent bumper horse and gave No More Heroes a mighty fright last time out at Navan. He’s tough and he’s got speed and it’s hard to see him running a bad race. Anyone with ante posts on Alvisio Ville, I wouldn’t tear them up. Wouldn’t surprise me if he put in an improved display here. Jollyallan doesn’t jump well enough for my money.
ARKLE: I’ve gone each way mad here with Sgt Reckless 25/1, Vibrato Valtat 20/1 and Smashing 33/1 . I’m very happy with these and just need one to place to make a profit. If two place then I’m in clover but I can’t see anything getting within an ass’s roar of Un De Sceaux, who only needs to jump round to win imo. He is breathtaking to watch and the 27/1 double with Vautour isn’t looking too shabby now. Un De Sceaux is nearly the one horse I’m most looking forward to seeing…
ULTIMA SOLUTIONS: I like Pendra and Buywise for this and have backed the former at 12/1. He would have went very close in the novices handicap last season but for a bad mistake at the last and he’s well handicapped. Buywise may go for the Festival Plate.
CHAMPION HURDLE: Without a shadow of a doubt Faugheen is the horse I’m looking forward to seeing the most. I’ve been a huge fan since he won his bumper and he has gone from strength to strength since then. Two performances in particular, or two moments even, stand out when I think about his chances. Firstly, when he lifted the second last out of the ground in the Neptune I thought he was cooked, and I’m guessing so did Tom Scudamore on Red Sherlock, but all Ruby did was give him a squeeze and he put the race to bed by the home turn. That was scarcely believable. Then he went to Punchestown over two miles and didn’t come off the bridle to win by the length of the straight with Ruby patting his neck for the last furlong. This is no ordinary horse and he looks potentially a superstar. On Tuesday he’ll get the chance to prove or disprove this but to be honest I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t win by a clear margin. I’m on at 6/1 and 3/1 and think he could have this won turning in.
MARES HURDLE: Annie Power should win if she comes here. So much in hand of the rest of these.
NATIONAL HUNT CHASE: On Very Wood at 10/1 so hopefully this is where he runs. He was very impressive last time out and looks crying out for this sort of test. The Bartlett turned into a slog last season and he was in his element.
NOVICES HCP CHASE: Art Of Payroll e/w at 40/1 is my bet here. Has had a few quiet runs and connections did a handicapping job with him last season over hurdles. Look a similar procedure this season and off 137 he’s not without a chance.
I am assuming you didn’t have Very Wood NRNB? I suspect a few people have been caught but as I said it’s swings and roundabouts.
The novices handicap is predictably difficult. You could probably stick a pin in. What do you think of Band Of Blood? Not the most consistent but he has had some big asks. One or two of these are clearly going to step up on quicker ground.
Know you are big on Apache Stronghold but are you a little concerned about the expected ride should there be a double figure field?
Notice you have put The Game Changer up again. The horse has been convicted time again of a weak finish so wondering what makes you think the Cheltenham hill will suit? Do you envisage him winning the race on the bridle?
Good luck with them all.
I am assuming you didn’t have Very Wood NRNB? I suspect a few people have been caught but as I said it’s swings and roundabouts.
The novices handicap is predictably difficult. You could probably stick a pin in. What do you think of Band Of Blood? Not the most consistent but he has had some big asks. One or two of these are clearly going to step up on quicker ground.
Know you are big on Apache Stronghold but are you a little concerned about the expected ride should there be a double figure field?
Notice you have put The Game Changer up again. The horse has been convicted time again of a weak finish so wondering what makes you think the Cheltenham hill will suit? Do you envisage him winning the race on the bridle?
Good luck with them all.
Didn’t have Very NRNB unfortunately, but he wouldn’t have been 10/1 if it was. Disappointed with the news but that’s the chance I took so can’t complain.
The novices handicap is really compressed. Band Of Blood has had some big asks alright and ran well in the Drinmore with plenty of decent sorts behind him. The form of the Mouse Morris string would be a major worry though, so I’ll be giving his runners a miss.
I haven’t as much on the Apache as you might think but he’d be a tasty payday at 20/1 all the same. I would have had more on but feel there’s plenty of strength in the race. I wouldn’t be worried about the ride, I don’t think he needs to be held up and he can be put anywhere in the race. That being said I imagine Carberry will hold him up given that has worked pretty well since Fairyhouse. I think he was a bit below what he’s capable of last time, he usually shows more tactical speed than that and I reckon the big field shouldn’t be a major issue.
I’m probably guilty of being too loyal to The Game Changer, but I look to his Galway Hurdle run for inspiration. A flat out two miles on good ground is what he wants, and having moved to Gordon Elliott could bring about more improvement than one might expect. That being said, he’s getting pretty short at 12/1 now.
Good luck to you too, are you going this year?
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stilvi wrote:</div>
I am assuming you didn’t have Very Wood NRNB? I suspect a few people have been caught but as I said it’s swings and roundabouts.The novices handicap is predictably difficult. You could probably stick a pin in. What do you think of Band Of Blood? Not the most consistent but he has had some big asks. One or two of these are clearly going to step up on quicker ground.
Know you are big on Apache Stronghold but are you a little concerned about the expected ride should there be a double figure field?
Notice you have put The Game Changer up again. The horse has been convicted time again of a weak finish so wondering what makes you think the Cheltenham hill will suit? Do you envisage him winning the race on the bridle?
Good luck with them all.
Didn’t have Very NRNB unfortunately, but he wouldn’t have been 10/1 if it was. Disappointed with the news but that’s the chance I took so can’t complain.
The novices handicap is really compressed. Band Of Blood has had some big asks alright and ran well in the Drinmore with plenty of decent sorts behind him. The form of the Mouse Morris string would be a major worry though, so I’ll be giving his runners a miss.
I haven’t as much on the Apache as you might think but he’d be a tasty payday at 20/1 all the same. I would have had more on but feel there’s plenty of strength in the race. I wouldn’t be worried about the ride, I don’t think he needs to be held up and he can be put anywhere in the race. That being said I imagine Carberry will hold him up given that has worked pretty well since Fairyhouse. I think he was a bit below what he’s capable of last time, he usually shows more tactical speed than that and I reckon the big field shouldn’t be a major issue.
I’m probably guilty of being too loyal to The Game Changer, but I look to his Galway Hurdle run for inspiration. A flat out two miles on good ground is what he wants, and having moved to Gordon Elliott could bring about more improvement than one might expect. That being said, he’s getting pretty short at 12/1 now.
Good luck to you too, are you going this year?
I haven’t been for several years. Used to do the three days and travel back each day. It became pretty tiring. Add in the massive crowds which made it very difficult to do the things I wanted to do and no matter how the good the racing was my enjoyment of the actual day was on the wane. It felt like it was moving more and more towards a social occasion with the racing just being a sideshow for many. Hopefully, it has moved in the right direction since then.
Having had a losing year (despite More Of That and Spring Heeled) last year tried to restrict my ante-post bets this year but Vautour, Valseur Lido and Tell Us More among five who have gone west.
Currently, the only Irish horses I have left are Alvisio Ville (hoping AP chooses the other one), Faugheen (purely because Ladbrokes went 2/1 for a few minutes last week), Band Of Blood, Very Wood, Jetson (drying ground a big help and hopeful of a big run), Guess Again (the one of the three Denmark/Martin entries that should handle the ground), Martello Tower (looks a solid each-way chance), and Djakadam.
There are obviously a few other short ones to consider but at this stage I would sooner either swerve them or wait.
CHELTENHAM REVIEW
Bumper
The Irish bumper horses were mostly disappointing, with British animals filling the first four places. Moon Racer won in good style but the real hard luck story was Yanworth back in fourth. He endured a shocking run into the straight and flew home in the finish. He may not have beaten the winner but I think he’d have been second at least. Looking at the odds for next year’s Supreme, Yanworth appeals far more at 20/1 than Moon Racer at 8/1, although with Mullins likely to acquire more stock over the summer I don’t know if I’d be taking anything yet. Vautour and Douvan were not on the radar at this stage. However, Yanworth appeals as a horse with plenty of improvement in him and still has a lot to learn, so definitely one to keep on side in future.Novice hurdles
A strong performance from the Irish horse in this division, filling eight of the first nine places in the three races. Douvan was a class apart in the Supreme, with good runs from both Shaneshill and Sizing John. The winner looks a ready-made Arkle candidate for next season, has plenty of scope. L’Ami Serge was badly hampered but he would have been fighting it out for the places at best regardless imo.Windsor Park looked the winner all the way round in the Neptune, jumping really well from the front and running out an easy enough winner. Vyta Du Roc looked the bi danger coming to the last, but a bad mistake there put paid to his chances. The tactics on Nichols Canyon were strange, abandoning the front running ride that worked so well in the Deloitte.
I was all over No More Heroes e/w at 14/1 in the Bartlett, and was gutted when his run was cut off coming to the last. The winner, Martello Tower, is as tough as they come though and may have found more anyway. I think No More Heroes is definitely a horse to keep on side over fences. He doesn’t jump hurdles that fluently and is just a bit awkward all too often. Fences could be the making of him. All three placed horses found loads under the pump and it was one of the races of the week imo.
Triumph Hurdle
Another division where the Irish were disappointing. The ground wouldn’t have helped Hargam but he ran well in third behind Henderson’s other pair, Peace And Co and Top Notch. Would be nice to see Nicky send one or other of them to Punchestown where’d any of the three would likely be hot fav.Novice Chasers
Un De Sceaux gave a jumping exhibition in the Arkle but Vautour was even better. The form of the JLT looks stronger for me as well with Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido running their races in second and third. I’d guess both improved a bit from the Moriarty, with the former travelling and jumping better and the latter probably stripping fitter. Vautour was ridiculously good. I’ve never seen a horse jump the way he did, seemed to just float over every fence and took lengths out of the opposition.Don Poli had any amount in hand in the RSA. There was a moment coming to the fourth last that really reminded me of a moment in Sea The Star’s Juddmonte win, strange as that may sound. For a couple of strides at York, Kinane ssqueezed Sea The Stars to follow Mastercraftsman between the Ballydoyle pacemakers. The response was so good that he had to take a pull to prevent him from clipping heels. Likewise, Don Poli was at his lazy best at that stage of the race and when Cooper rousted him up he just took off. This was made even more impressive by the jump he put in at the fence, almost landing in the lead beside Kings Palace. He was pricking his ears from this stage to the line and it was never in doubt. I’m not sure what sort of animal Vautour is (other than an extremely good one) but Don Poli looks tailor made for the Gold Cup.
In the National Hunt Chase, Very Wood was very bad. Cause Of Causes put any stamina doubts to bed and the Thyestes form doesn’t look too shabby now with The Job Is Right running a good race in third, Goonyella running away with the Midlands National and of course Djakadam running so well in the Gold Cup. Shows the danger of judging the worth a race’s form too soon.
CHAMPIONSHIP RACES
I’ve given my thoughts on the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle elsewhere on the forum. Lamenting the rain that scuppered Holywell’s chances while thrilled with Faugheen and Arctic Fire. Although Willie Mullins had a fantastic week, I’m guessing he was gutted Champagne Fever couldn’t run in the Champion Chase. He’d surely have gone close. A great win for Cole Harden in the World Hurdle, another race where the Irish challengers were way off the level required. Wasn’t at all surprised Don Cossack found a couple too good in the Ryanair but to be fair to the horse he wasn’t helped by getting hampered at a crucial stage.Novice Chasers
Un De Sceaux gave a jumping exhibition in the Arkle but Vautour was even better. The form of the JLT looks stronger for me as well with Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido running their races in second and third. I’d guess both improved a bit from the Moriarty, with the former travelling and jumping better and the latter probably stripping fitter. Vautour was ridiculously good. I’ve never seen a horse jump the way he did, seemed to just float over every fence and took lengths out of the opposition.I am presuming you had a winning week?
I won a little bit but it could have been so much better with each-way fourths on Yanworth (33/1), Eduard (25/1) and Hoywell (50/1) as well as both Djakadam (50/1) and Noble Endeavour (20/1) finishing second on the last day. I know the winner won very easily but Guess Again was tanking before that rogue Just A Par decided to run across him in the Kim Muir.
As regards Un De Sceaux. I wasn’t at all surprised he was ridden in that manner because that is what Walsh does. Personally, if he had have been allowed to bowl I think he would have won just as easily as Vautour and it would also have made for a much more exciting spectacle. Gods Own is useful but he shouldn’t really have been upsides two out.
Tommy just put some bets up for 2016 any thoughts on them see them at cheltenham 2016
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>thehorsesmouth wrote:</div>
Novice Chasers
Un De Sceaux gave a jumping exhibition in the Arkle but Vautour was even better. The form of the JLT looks stronger for me as well with Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido running their races in second and third. I’d guess both improved a bit from the Moriarty, with the former travelling and jumping better and the latter probably stripping fitter. Vautour was ridiculously good. I’ve never seen a horse jump the way he did, seemed to just float over every fence and took lengths out of the opposition.I am presuming you had a winning week?
I won a little bit but it could have been so much better with each-way fourths on Yanworth (33/1), Eduard (25/1) and Hoywell (50/1) as well as both Djakadam (50/1) and Noble Endeavour (20/1) finishing second on the last day. I know the winner won very easily but Guess Again was tanking before that rogue Just A Par decided to run across him in the Kim Muir.
As regards Un De Sceaux. I wasn’t at all surprised he was ridden in that manner because that is what Walsh does. Personally, if he had have been allowed to bowl I think he would have won just as easily as Vautour and it would also have made for a much more exciting spectacle. Gods Own is useful but he shouldn’t really have been upsides two out.
Had an excellent week Stilvi thankfully. I had plenty on Faugheen and Arctic Fire and never looked back after that really. Windsor Park and Don Poli ensured a good second day while on Thursday my Vautour/Un De Sceaux double landed and also had a decent bet on Apache without Vautour, as well as my ante post e/w on the Meade horse. Peace And Co was my only Friday winner but had a few placed, the most painful without doubt was No More Heroes, who was one of my biggest bets of the week at 14/1. Was gutted to see the rain for Holywell. Most disappointing results of the week were Very Wood who never went a yard, and Salsify who possibly bounced
Also General Principle but you half expect a few fancied bumper animals to bomb out. Very hard luck with Yanworth, was one of the unluckiest horses of the week. Whether he would have won or not is impossible to say but he’d have given the winner a good rattle imo.A couple of old favourites of mine running this weekend, with Felix Yonger completing a hat trick yesterday. He wouldn’t have liked the ground but had far too much class for the opposition and was going to win very easily before a blunder at the last. I’d love to see him in a Melling Chase but that will probably come too soon for him. He’d have his chance at Punchestown over 2m but he’s probably a better horse over the intermediate trip. Rule The World runs today at Limerick and unfortunately has looked a shadow of his former self recently. You couldn’t back him with any confidence but I’d like to see him return to the winner’s enclosure.
Surprisingly my betting today is concerned with action at the Curragh, having backed Great Minds at 11/4 and Onenightidreamed at 9/1. Both are Tom Stack horses and come here off lengthy breaks, neither having run since the first half of last season. The pair of them should like the ground and both are open to plenty of improvement.
Surprisingly my betting today is concerned with action at the Curragh, having backed Great Minds at 11/4 and Onenightidreamed at 9/1. Both are Tom Stack horses and come here off lengthy breaks, neither having run since the first half of last season. The pair of them should like the ground and both are open to plenty of improvement.
Nice performance from Onenightidreamed who brings home the bacon in the Lincolnshire. Great Minds didn’t have the best of runs through the race and I’d give him another chance. Poor old Rule The World is a shadow of the horse he was. A return to hurdles might be in store for him.
Also General Principle but you half expect a few fancied bumper animals to bomb out. Very hard luck with Yanworth, was one of the unluckiest horses of the week. Whether he would have won or not is impossible to say but he’d have given the winner a good rattle imo.
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