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Think the Oaks is shaping up to be a fine race. In the trials we’ve seen so far I really liked Zeeyadah at Chester. Trainer was fairly confident she’d come on for the run and I think she shaped much the best horse. Looking forward to the Musidora this week. Also looking forward to seeing Snow Lantern again, wherever she may appear..
Twitter - @danny_TLDR
Have written off Ashaari for this so my 2 for this ew are..
Santa Barbara 13-2
Teona 11-1I have a feeling Teona will run big with an honest pace. Just hoping the Musidora, which was too slow and tactical, dont put them off running.
Looks like a full u turn with Saffron Beach. Confirmed for the Oaks now which livens it up a bit.
Having sat down to look at this race i think i’ll be siding with Zeyaadah as my main fancy but also probably backing the other Varian filly Teona. The thing with Teona is i was looking at the race on the RP website and their price had 16/1 about Teona, for me to check oddschecker and see she’s best 8s. I’ll be waiting to see what price she is nearer the time. Whereas i’m happy enough with Zeyaadah’s to have a small antepost now and top up if she gets bigger.
Zeyaadah has run to a very decent level behind a very decent yardstick giving her 3pds, i like that a lot. Franny Norton around Chester is worth another couple of pds to the winner as well!
Stayed a mile on heavy as a 2yo, and didn’t look to be stopping around Chester and the race according to the sectionals was even to fast. Her stride frequency also backs up her stamina being adequate for the job.At 15/8 Santa Barbara can run without me backing her all day long. Yes she’s shown she’s of a high level in a very short period, but for me that run at Newmarket didn’t scream 1m4. Her family all were better over shorter and there’s some in racing mannerisms that just put me off. By Camelot she should have some stamina, but then her relatives of note were by Australia and Ruler Of The World and they didn’t.
It’s often noted on here how Aidan can steal big races with bigger priced winners (yes you TTC lol) and the one that i noticed him speak nicer about than i ever expected was Divinely. “We were very happy with her at Lingfield, probably happier than anybody else was. It was a very slowly run race and we were going to ride her very patiently. She ran a lovely race, so she is a filly we are looking forward to seeing as well.” If she makes it i’ll probably have a few pennies on her just in case, for all her form doesn’t scream Munster Oaks winner never mind a CAZOO Oaks winner lol. By a certain Galileo and related to Found and Best in the World….she might just find some improvement.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Zeyaadah 7/1
Was the moral winner of the Chester oaks trial for me, was given a very tender ride by Jim crowley with future targets in mind
Dubai fountain is a very good yardstick and although she finished second to her to my eye she is the better filly
I’ve backed Dubai Fountain today now the prices are out she looks a few points too big too me, at worst should be single figures. Officially the best of these fillies as a 2 year old, indeed she’s heading into the race as the highest rated. Obviously Zeyaadah comes out best at the weights from Chester and probably should have won but that’s by the by for me they were both having their first runs of the season so who knows where they were fitness wise and the market has massively overcompensated for that already with Zeyaadah being a general 11/2 shot and Dubai Fountain being out at 12/1.
I can’t see Dubai Fountain being a superstar in all honesty but the only two fillies here I can see being superstars are Santa Barbara and Teona and I’ve got reservations about both being able to show their best at Epsom on Friday given where they are in their respective careers. Even if I thought Teona could do it on the day her price is horrendous on what she’s actually achieved so far, at least Santa Barbara gave a bold showing in the Guineas on just her 2nd run. I suppose you could say with a bit more luck in running at Chester Zeyaadah would be coming here unbeaten but even then if you go back through her form she’s not really beaten anything particularly noteworthy nor beaten any of them in a manner that makes her stand out as a bit special.
If neither Santa Barbara nor Teona can perform on the day then the race is wide open and a bit like Anapurna’s year where a rating of just 111 was enough to win the Oaks, I can easily see Dubai Fountain being able to progress to that sort of level given she’s already 110 from her 2 year old form.
Time wise much of the form brought into this is nothing special, even the 1,000 Guineas doesn’t look anything to shout about. The one race that stands out is that involving Dubai Fountain and Zeyaadah at Chester. Dubai Fountain was progressive at 2 while falling just short of victory on a number of occasions, but she appears to have made that step forward over the winter. Zeyaadah has to be considered having finished a decent second conceding weight. I’ll take the two against the field.
Snowfall looks the value to me at 5/1, wouldnt even blame people for doing ew with that if it’s top 4.
Odd looking market, with several horses beaten in trials considerably shorter than the fillies who beat them. Must be a bit of value around against these fillies who had the dreaded ‘excuses’ LTO.
Saffron Beach beat the hype-job favourite fair and square LTO over an inadequate trip in the Guineas, and looks far too big at 12/1. A lightly raced Group 3 winning juvenile, she must be in with every chance of staying as at least 10f looks assured. Nice enough draw in 7. In fact I’m backing stall 7 in both classics, coincidentally. The excellent Guineas run proved she could handle a tricky track, had trained on, and handled G/F. I admit I am not a Kirby fan, but the man certainly knows this filly well.
Saffron Beach 3 pts e/w 12/1 (1/5 first 4 B/O B365)
BUY THE SUN
Looks a desperate renewal. Saffron Beach & Santa Barbara both have significant stamina doubts for me, and they’d have been the 2 horses I liked the most in pure ability terms. Zeyaadah will stay, but has been drawn in stall 1 so has lost virtually all chance. I was left with a shortlist of Dubai Fountain, Snowfall & Sherbet Lemon (maybe Technique at a massive price). Think I’ll side with Sherbet Lemon, she’ll plug on late (think she’s a contender for the Leger) and if they go a shade quick out in front that would be much appreciated.
Noon Star would have won in my view, although I only took that position this afternoon when going through the card properly so thankfully haven’t done my dough ante-post.
Dubai Fountain is my pick. Won well last time in a recognised trial and is a big price considering.
Santa Barbara has loads of potential, but if I were to back an AOB horse, it’d be the other one!
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
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