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Due to be run at Leopardstown on Sunday, this year’s race lacks the quality of some of the previous renewals and will have little bearing on the real thing in March, but is an interesting contest nonetheless.
The Listener is surely the one to beat if he gets his favoured soft ground which seems likely as I write. Unusually held up in a slowly run Lexus over C and D at Christmas, he wasn’t seen to best efect on the decent surface that day but still ran well. He’ll be a more potent force ridden from the front on testing ground on Sunday. I put him up as a bet this morning at 3/1.
Mossbank finished in front of The Listener the last day but the ground would have suited him far better. Will surely struggle on soft or heavy, but would come right into it if it dries up to good/soft or better.
Nickname is a fascinating runner as he’s top-class from 2m-2 1/2m. My money says he’ll struggle to stay the trip in this company, but if he does, he’s right in it.
Beef or Salmon will raise the roof if he wins at the age of 12. Loves this C and D, soft ground and a small field so likely to get his conditions. It will be highly disappointing if he can beat the younger brigade but I expect him to run well.
Snowy Morning was well fancied for the English version off a mark of 143 but fell early. He’s since made hay over hurdles and must come here full of confidence following 2 good wins. 8/1 for a race on Sunday or 12/1 for the National in 2 months? looks a no-brainer to me and I’m on at that price. Has a bit to find but there’s plenty of room for a new kid at the top of Irish chasing and he could be it.
Mister Top Notch similarly has a good Leopardstown record on soft ground but looks plenty short enough to me given how much he has to find on the book- this is much better than the handicap he bossed last time.
Turko represents the all-conquering Paul Nicholls. Looks to have benefitted from a breathing op and won well at Sandown. For me another that needs the ground to dry out- most wind-op. horses don’t operate when the mud is flying.
Rule Supreme has been off for a long time and showed little at Thurles the last day, even if the trip was too short. Pass.
Hedgehunter is surely just warming up for Aintree
Notre Pere is my long-range fancy for the Sun Alliance: blotted his copybook by falling last day but I expect him to redeem himself here, but not to be up to winning this.The Listener is certainly the one to beat although with only passing showers expected between now and the race, the ground could go against him a little and 3/1 is short enough IMO.
Mossbank is the obvious alternative following his good showing in the Lexus and I think the final decision will all come down to the ground on the day
I think Rule Supreme could run a big race and he’d be my each-way selection at 20/1. His last run was his first for a long time and he’s bound to come on from it. This race was Willie Mullins’ plan all along too I reckon.
I don’t think The Listener was ridden to best advantage in the Lexus. He’ll do for me on Sunday and I hope his jockey is a bit more aggressive on him.
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For my money, The Listener didn’t last home in the Lexus, much as he didn’t in this last year. By all accounts his trainer and his jockey thought so too.
No doubt, he would win this doing handsprings over a couple of furlongs less, but might find one or two others breathing down his neck over the final mile, and probably won’t have enough left to see it out to the line.
Snowy Morning could well be the one to benefit, assuming he is ridden right up with the pace, and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be, now his National weight won’t be affected.
SM for me, and for the National.Hello,
Carvill you dwell on mediocitry..
The race is overal irrevelant..I am true Irish man but?
regards,
doyley
The Listener should get away with it this year. They just have to go a sensible gallop.
i was going to back Moosbank if the ground drys up, but reading other people’s comments Snowy Morning is now in my head
arrrraghhhhAs expected, I’ve done my money on Neptunes Collognes as it’s a non-runner.
Note to myself: If a horse looks over priced, there is probably a good reason why
Mike
Pity you don’t live here Micky, I get my money back from Ladbrokes as they’re NRNB for all Irish Ante-Post placed in cash in Ireland. (I had a few quid at 14s on him too, just in case)
Looks like I may have called the ground wrong in my preview- it’s been a mostly dry week here and high winds are forecast: the ground may well dry out considerably by Sunday- best guess at this stage is Yielding (our version of good to soft) That will bring Mossbank right back into it and be against The Listener. Snowy Morning looks a likely runner but Jim Dreaper is undecided about Notre Pere who also holds the 2m 5f novice engagement.
Cheers Carvill’s – that cheered me right up
For me it’s more of a watching brief now – though if Snowy Morning wins I will be cringing at the price the bookies make him for the National. He might well be the shortest priced ante-post fav ever if he wins (or even goes close) on Sunday.
Mike
I’m no expert on Irish form and am bowing to Carvills superior knowledge who’s post makes a lot of sense to me.
Being in the unfimiliar position of needing a couple of winner due to some mad AP bets I am took the plunge on The Listner.
My bookies ribbed me a bit and asked what no double with Denman so I thought why not and took 38/10 the double. Surely Denman can’t be beat?
I noticed Thyne Again has been tickled at in the market for the Dr. P.J. Moriarty and I do like the horse a lot but the favourite is very shot and I know nothing about this favourite apart from she’s a mare and has won by a distance in her last two starts………perhaps you could give us an opinion on that one too C?
What I can’t understand is both are entered for the Arkle and Thyne Again is the shorter of the two in the betting. I know this is 2m5f but looking at TA’s form that should pose no problem to him. Seems the betting is a bit topsy turvy and was wondering why such a huge gap between the two.
The difference in price is down to the distances of the various races.
Thyne Again has won 2 Nov Ch over 2m incl a Gr1 while J’y Vole has won 2 Nov Ch over 20f on Hvy going so it would seem that the 2m5f distance of the Dr PJ Moriarty Chase is the reason for the price differential. Also, Thyne Again’s last win told us very little because Scotsirish didn’t stay up so we still don’t really know how good the horse is.
Thyne Again’s Cheltenham Festival target would appear to be the Arkle while I’d say J’y Vole’s has yet to be finalised. However, Willie Mullins has Scotsirish entered in both Nov Ch at the Festival but on the balance of the form to-date, I would reckon that Scotsirish will run in the Arkle while J’y Vole will run in the RSA.
i see no one has mentioned Sky’s the limit who is also in this race and has won a couple of G1’s and is a course winner does anyone know what price he is?
Funny how this has morphed into a PJ Moriarty thread, but anyhow….
Looks a very hard race to me. The mare is very short but gets lumps of weight and jumps well- wouldn’t back her at 6/4 but in no hurry to field against her either. She has a serious opponent in Sky’s the Limit, for whom trip and ground will be perfect and who did very well to win at 2m1 last day. Thyne Again would for me be the weakest of the front 3 because of his jumping, which was decidiedly iffy the last day- he’s got some engine though.Big Zeb would be the closest thing to a bet for me at 10/1: he was a decent hurdler but has shown a tendency to guess at the odd fence since going chasing. With a clear round he’ll be involved. Notre Pere won’t have the toe to go with these at the trip- we’d have learnt more about him in the Hennessy- for me Jim Dreaper’s made the wrong call running him in this where his jumping will be put under stern examination. A race to watch and savour, no bet for me.i just looked at replay of the Lexus and i’m half tempted to back Beef or Salmon on Sunday, Crazy you all might say, but something keeps telling me he has 1 super race in him, was going to back Mossbank he’s out the ground is drying up a bit here which goes against The listner Snowy Morning has it to prove over fences this season……..
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See in the RP that Ruby’s elected to ride Snowy Morning, despite having the choice of the P.Nicholls trained Turko and probably most of the others in the field – wise man!
arrrraghhhh
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