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The draw

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  • #19758
    stottystotty
    Member
    • Total Posts 31

    Appologies if we have had this thread before as i am prodominantly a N.H. fan but, I have noticed that in the flat world recently the draw has absolutley no bearing on the race what so ever. what are your thoughts?

    #372765
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4572

    Not even at Chester?

    #372766
    stottystotty
    Member
    • Total Posts 31

    Idont think even chesters races are always run true to the braw bias.

    #372782
    alan1
    Member
    • Total Posts 167

    I agree its certainly not as big an issue as it used to be. Maybe due to artificial watering of courses.

    #372785
    Miss WoodfordMiss Woodford
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1351

    Oh, it certainly makes a difference when the track is 6.5f in circumference :D

    #372792
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    I agree its certainly not as big an issue as it used to be. Maybe due to artificial watering of courses.

    Patrick Vietch said as much – both in his book, and a recent RP article.

    #372867
    stottystotty
    Member
    • Total Posts 31

    Not sure how wide a racetrack measures but surely more times than not the best horse should win no matter where it is drawn,We dont see massive priced winners all that often do we.

    #372885
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    I think many tracks have tried to change the draw bias that used to be very much in existance at some tracks, especially on straight tracks.

    Any track with a bend, especially a bend of 180 degrees or more like thirsk or musselburgh or kempton will obviously hinder horses drawn wide. But as a punter we know this in advance, as do bookies, and this will already be factored into a horses odds.

    If you think a horse drawn high will not be affected you could get better prices.

    #372948
    GeorgeJ
    Participant
    • Total Posts 160

    Try winning over 5f at Wolverhampton from stall 13. It has been done, but not often.

    #372971
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26575

    It wasn’t that long ago that Salisbury favoured the far rail on a firm surface. That has totally disappeared in the last few years. A draw on the stand side rail can still help on soft ground, but that’s to be expected with trees taking up moisture.

    Also Before the new Tatts Grandstand was built at Newbury the nearside rail had an advantage, even more so on a soft surface. Nowadays they tend to go up the middle with (usually) little or no Draw advantage.

    Goodwood’s straight course another that’s changed. Some years ago the stand rail used to be the place to be. Nowadays there can be a small advantage which is just as likely to be centre than anywhere else.

    One factor that seems more evident these days is pace bias. For example at York some horses struggle for a change of gear. Making it more difficult (for some) to come from the back.

    value is everything
    #372974
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Ginger
    I presume the OP wishes to know about draw bias as a predictive tool; as there’s a York meeting coming up this weekend, perhaps you’d let us know, in advance, horses that might suffer from your mythical

    pace bias

    ? :mrgreen:

    #373021
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26575

    Ginger
    I presume the OP wishes to know about draw bias as a predictive tool; as there’s a York meeting coming up this weekend, perhaps you’d let us know, in advance, horses that might suffer from your mythical

    pace bias

    ? :mrgreen:

    I was just agreeing with OP and indeed your good self Reet, that the Draw is not as big an influence as it once was. But maybe for different reasons. As for the other thing…

    My eyes will be elsewhere at the weekend.
    Am sure Reet, you are capable of looking through the form book. Note down those who either front run or race prominently or track pace. These will probably be favoured by the course (particularly the straight course). Look for those usually held up or dropped out or often slowly away, even sometimes those in mid-div. These are likely to be unfavoured by the course. Of course a suicidally fast pace can over-ride any stat like this. Most (but NOT all) seem incapable of a turn of foot on this knavesmire. Or one who may be a good bit ahead of the field can out-do its position. For example Casper Netcher went against the pace bias at the Ebor meeting, only to show even better form in the Mill Reef.

    It’s not a hard rule Reet, just something that people might want to "consider" (up to you/them), like ground, distance or jockeyship are things to "consider".

    It’s interesting that after I mentioned this "pace bias" at York, there were many other people / trainers who called in to question the unique York ground. Although maybe not in the same way as I did. :wink:

    value is everything
    #373024
    jose1993
    Member
    • Total Posts 1228

    37 races on the straight course at York in 2011 so far. Easy enough to breakdown the "headline" positional I/R RP comment for each winner.

    Behind – 3
    Chased Leaders – 6
    Close Up – 3
    Dwelt – 1
    Held Up – 5
    Held Up In Touch – 2
    Led – 1
    Made All – 5
    Mid Division – 1
    Tracked Leader/s – 5
    With Leader – 4
    Prominent – 1

    * Note "Behind" includes one slowly into stride and one soon outpaced.

    Now I’ll return to observing the latest amusing exchange between Reet and Ginger. It’s top quality entertainment. :D

    #373031
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26575

    Now I’ll return to observing the latest amusing exchange between Reet and Ginger. It’s top quality entertainment. :D

    :lol:

    I’m glad someone thinks so Jose. :roll: :lol:
    Reet enjoys finding fault. :wink:

    He’s harmless really. :mrgreen:

    value is everything
    #373035
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26575

    37 races on the straight course at York in 2011 so far. Easy enough to breakdown the "headline" positional I/R RP comment for each winner.

    Made All – 5
    Led – 1
    With Leader – 4
    Prominent – 1
    Tracked Leader/s – 5
    Chased Leaders – 6
    Close Up – 3
    (25 winners)

    Held Up In Touch – 2
    Mid Division – 1
    Held Up – 5
    Behind – 3
    Dwelt – 1
    (12 winners)

    * Note "Behind" includes one slowly into stride and one soon outpaced.

    Thanks Jose for those stats, interesting.
    I’ve moved the descriptions around in order of positions (Made All first to Dwelt last). Haven’t compared it to a course like Ascot, but it looks pretty conclusive to me. 25 plays 12. Even with "held up

    in touch

    " in the "held up" group. Which I’d argue should be in neither group.

    I’d expect many courses to have a "bias" of sorts, but not as pronounced as York. I’d guess the "dwelt" and "behind" ones would predominantely be fast run races.

    value is everything
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