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Appologies if we have had this thread before as i am prodominantly a N.H. fan but, I have noticed that in the flat world recently the draw has absolutley no bearing on the race what so ever. what are your thoughts?
I agree its certainly not as big an issue as it used to be. Maybe due to artificial watering of courses.
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I agree its certainly not as big an issue as it used to be. Maybe due to artificial watering of courses.
Patrick Vietch said as much – both in his book, and a recent RP article.
Not sure how wide a racetrack measures but surely more times than not the best horse should win no matter where it is drawn,We dont see massive priced winners all that often do we.
I think many tracks have tried to change the draw bias that used to be very much in existance at some tracks, especially on straight tracks.
Any track with a bend, especially a bend of 180 degrees or more like thirsk or musselburgh or kempton will obviously hinder horses drawn wide. But as a punter we know this in advance, as do bookies, and this will already be factored into a horses odds.
If you think a horse drawn high will not be affected you could get better prices.
It wasn’t that long ago that Salisbury favoured the far rail on a firm surface. That has totally disappeared in the last few years. A draw on the stand side rail can still help on soft ground, but that’s to be expected with trees taking up moisture.
Also Before the new Tatts Grandstand was built at Newbury the nearside rail had an advantage, even more so on a soft surface. Nowadays they tend to go up the middle with (usually) little or no Draw advantage.
Goodwood’s straight course another that’s changed. Some years ago the stand rail used to be the place to be. Nowadays there can be a small advantage which is just as likely to be centre than anywhere else.
One factor that seems more evident these days is pace bias. For example at York some horses struggle for a change of gear. Making it more difficult (for some) to come from the back.
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Ginger
I presume the OP wishes to know about draw bias as a predictive tool; as there’s a York meeting coming up this weekend, perhaps you’d let us know, in advance, horses that might suffer from your mythicalpace bias
?
Ginger
I presume the OP wishes to know about draw bias as a predictive tool; as there’s a York meeting coming up this weekend, perhaps you’d let us know, in advance, horses that might suffer from your mythicalpace bias
?
I was just agreeing with OP and indeed your good self Reet, that the Draw is not as big an influence as it once was. But maybe for different reasons. As for the other thing…
My eyes will be elsewhere at the weekend.
Am sure Reet, you are capable of looking through the form book. Note down those who either front run or race prominently or track pace. These will probably be favoured by the course (particularly the straight course). Look for those usually held up or dropped out or often slowly away, even sometimes those in mid-div. These are likely to be unfavoured by the course. Of course a suicidally fast pace can over-ride any stat like this. Most (but NOT all) seem incapable of a turn of foot on this knavesmire. Or one who may be a good bit ahead of the field can out-do its position. For example Casper Netcher went against the pace bias at the Ebor meeting, only to show even better form in the Mill Reef.It’s not a hard rule Reet, just something that people might want to "consider" (up to you/them), like ground, distance or jockeyship are things to "consider".
It’s interesting that after I mentioned this "pace bias" at York, there were many other people / trainers who called in to question the unique York ground. Although maybe not in the same way as I did.
Value Is Everything37 races on the straight course at York in 2011 so far. Easy enough to breakdown the "headline" positional I/R RP comment for each winner.
Behind – 3
Chased Leaders – 6
Close Up – 3
Dwelt – 1
Held Up – 5
Held Up In Touch – 2
Led – 1
Made All – 5
Mid Division – 1
Tracked Leader/s – 5
With Leader – 4
Prominent – 1* Note "Behind" includes one slowly into stride and one soon outpaced.
Now I’ll return to observing the latest amusing exchange between Reet and Ginger. It’s top quality entertainment.
Now I’ll return to observing the latest amusing exchange between Reet and Ginger. It’s top quality entertainment.
I’m glad someone thinks so Jose.
Reet enjoys finding fault.He’s harmless really.
Value Is Everything37 races on the straight course at York in 2011 so far. Easy enough to breakdown the "headline" positional I/R RP comment for each winner.
Made All – 5
Led – 1
With Leader – 4
Prominent – 1
Tracked Leader/s – 5
Chased Leaders – 6
Close Up – 3
(25 winners)Held Up In Touch – 2
Mid Division – 1
Held Up – 5
Behind – 3
Dwelt – 1
(12 winners)* Note "Behind" includes one slowly into stride and one soon outpaced.
Thanks Jose for those stats, interesting.
I’ve moved the descriptions around in order of positions (Made All first to Dwelt last). Haven’t compared it to a course like Ascot, but it looks pretty conclusive to me. 25 plays 12. Even with "held upin touch
" in the "held up" group. Which I’d argue should be in neither group.
I’d expect many courses to have a "bias" of sorts, but not as pronounced as York. I’d guess the "dwelt" and "behind" ones would predominantely be fast run races.
Value Is EverythingDraws matter more the shorter the race. Draws matter much more around a circle (similarly, draws matter a bit more if the homestraight is short, and more if the track is tight). Draws matter much more if the pace is slow. Draws matter much more the larger the field.
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"GingertipsterThanks Jose for those stats, interesting.
I’ve moved the descriptions around in order of positions (Made All first to Dwelt last). Haven’t compared it to a course like Ascot, but it looks pretty conclusive to me. 25 plays 12. Even with "held up [i:1gclve3p wrote: in touch" in the "held up" group. Which I’d argue should be in neither group.I’d expect many courses to have a "bias" of sorts, but not as pronounced as York. I’d guess the "dwelt" and "behind" ones would predominantely be fast run races.
Shock!!!!, Horror!!!! – more races are won by horses from the front half of the field than the back!!!!!!
I truly despair.
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