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I always consider the draw and look for any bias,If there was one today it does not mean there will be one tomorrow.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
"reet hard":3cp3wrp7 wrote:
in touch" in the "held up" group. Which I’d argue should be in neither group.
I’d expect many courses to have a "bias" of sorts, but not as pronounced as York.
I’d guess the "dwelt" and "behind" ones would predominantely be fast run races.
Shock!!!!, Horror!!!! – more races are won by horses from the front half of the field than the back!!!!!!
I truly despair.
Calm down Reet.
Yes, you might expect the front half of the field to do better than the back half. But not by over twice as much.
Despair all you like, the facts speak for themselves.
If you want to believe it is coincidence that’s up to you and everyone else Reet. It’s just an opinion mate. But it seems to me as though most (not all) horses struggle for a change of gear on the "mire".
Value Is EverythingDraws matter more the shorter the race. Draws matter much more around a circle (similarly, draws matter a bit more if the homestraight is short, and more if the track is tight). Draws matter much more if the pace is slow. Draws matter much more the larger the field.
Spot on Presto.
Value Is EverythingGinger, I have doubts about the York ground and what impact it’s having/had on races. I do, however, think it’s easy to confuse cause and effect in this game. (I’m fence sitting in other words!)
Ascot sprint races are heavily stacked in reverse, seemingly favouring closing horses. Uphill finish, field size, pace – any number of factors in play.
It would be great if we had other information – individual sectionals – so my post relying heavily on in-running comments wasn’t about the only hope collating information quickly, as it would allow more knowledgeable people to analyse the data.
I know I’ve veered off the path of "the draw" but I’m sure I can forgiven.
I don’t know whether or not it’s still the case, but there was a theory about the the ‘joggers line’ at York. I think the Knavesmire is common land, or at least publicly accessible, and the local joggers used the rail when doing their daily stint around the course. This made the inside of the course slightly more compacted and firmer and favoured horses able to grab the rail.
Rob
I don’t know whether or not it’s still the case, but there was a theory about the the ‘joggers line’ at York. I think the Knavesmire is common land, or at least publicly accessible, and the local joggers used the rail when doing their daily stint around the course. This made the inside of the course slightly more compacted and firmer and favoured horses able to grab the rail.
Rob
That was indeed the case Rob for a while, deffinitely not so now. Another example of the Draw advantage changing. If anything nowadays it is a disadvantage to be on the inside rail.
Middle of the course is the place to be, at least until it gets poached.
Value Is Everything
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