The Circus Is Here 1111

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This topic contains 752 replies, has 18 voices, and was last updated by Nathan Hughes Nathan Hughes 1 month, 2 weeks ago.

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  • #1357089
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    Ferty-free-ta-wun Robert!

    Nice winner Nathan, well thought out – you deserve a B-) and a few :yahoo: :yahoo: :yahoo:

    I know little about football, but have had my obligatory small bet on England @ 18/1. Not a patriotic bet, just perfect sense. Like many, they are a confidence team. Everything will depend on what sort of start they get. Previous years they’ve been far too careful. This time Southgate (in the lead up and vocally) much more positive. If looking at previous tournaments and discounting penalties we don’t have such a bad record. Having a young team is to our advantage, fewer players remember the poor performances of other years and we’ve won Under XX tournaments recently too.

    There are a few players I have my doubts about. Sterling’s confidence has been good with Man City this season and therefore netted a lot of goals; in contrast to his England form. Not that he plays badly, everywhere else on the pitch he’s great, just freezes in front of goal. However, the team are coming in to this in good form with a strong defence and got two winnable games to start. If Sterling can get a goal in the first game then his confidence may return. If not, Rashford would be a fine replacement. He’s the opposite to Sterling; no confidence in playing for Man U but bags of it in an England shirt. Little concerning Ali hasn’t been at his best second half of the season, but again there’s a lot of competition for his position – strength in depth.

    If we get off to a good start our odds will half. Fairly big IF, but imo England at this stage have a better than 5.25% chance. They have at least as good a chance as Belgium imo (all individuals, not yet a team) and Argentina (two man team). Not as far behind France as markets indicate either (struggled in qualifying and weak up front).

    One team I have been impressed with is Spain and have backed them @ 6/1. Ronaldo wrongly got the plaudits, but one was a wrongly given pen’. Spanish defender had his foot planted before Ron’ kicked his leg. Second goal extremely lucky as goalie had a nightmare and let it through. Only proper goal Spain let in a fabulous free-kick. So defencively Spain did better than the score shows and scored three good goals themselves. Bossed most of the game against Portugal. Should beat the other two in the group with ease.

    value is everything
    #1357108
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20476

    Welcome to the circus Ginge…. :good:
    We are use to the big price winners here and are more surprised when one doesn’t pop up now and again. :rose:

    Iceland were around 6/1 for a clean sheet so if the chance of that happening was realistic then the price on the keeper getting the man of the match was worth a shot at.

    Good write up Ginge. You’ve written some good positives there and I hope England can put in a good show, also the latter stages they will be underdogs so will have less pressure on them and nobody has high exceptions so it’s a free effort for them so to speak and they can relax but on the downside they do lack the quality and strength in depth that others have.
    I’m wanting Spain out ASAP as karma for that vile Sergio Ramos, christ he’s a bigger barstard than what barstard is. Mighty good player though… :negative:

    One bet for now. Germany look solid again and have the measure of Mexico. They should dominate the match and defensively should be too good for Mexico

    11/8 Germany to win to nil £3.00

    +£23.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357110

    Richard88
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    • Total Posts 219

    Having got used to resigning myself to disappointment, I genuinely don’t know what to expect from England this time which I guess means I’m more optimistic. The draw is about as kind as we could hope for, even down to the order of the games. Should be winning the first two (as should Belgium) to seal qualification and set up a straight shootout for top spot. None of the likely 2nd round opponents should be huge cause for concern either. Should we make the quarters then we’re bound to start running into the top teams but if we have a bit of confidence then anything can happen. I still believe that we are outsiders for the trophy but we are far from no-hopers.

    I think Ginger’s point about Belgium being individuals and not a team has to an extent been our problem too. On the face of it there does seem to be more unity and team mentality then we’ve had for ages. As our neighbours from the other side of Offa’s Dyke showed us two years ago, that can at least in part make up for not having a team full to the brim with world class players. If we can at least come back with some pride this time it would be something. Nobody wants semi final heartache but I’d take it over some of the dross we’ve served up in recent tournaments.

    Top punting by Nathan on the Icelandic fella :good:

    I know you’re not continuing with the system but surely the bookies will start trimming the odds on penalties. Three out eight games with at lest one pen scored and a further two with one awarded.

    #1357112
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20476

    Already been trimmed Richard, I looked at the first 11 games before the start of the World Cup and 7/2 was shortest of all of them. Yesterday France game was 10/3 and today Costa Rica’s game 10/3, Germany’s game 3/1 and Brazil’s game 3/1 for either team to score a penalty. I’ll take it as a feather in the cap and something to tell the grand kids about in twenty years time…. B-)

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357129
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20476

    Just been looking through Costa Rica’s previous results and they look a team very light on goals
    Serbia should take this and the likelihood is it’ll be 1-0. At the odds though I’m more incline to go 2-0 and 3-0 as if the game does go 1-0 at whatever stage Costa Rica can’t just sit back and wait for a miracle so are more likely to concede again and hopefully again. I’ve also had a play on Aleksandar Mitrovic to net a hattrick, Paddy Power are twice the price than the others at 60/1. The Fulham man has bags of confidence after a great season with Fulham where he played regularly which helps with sharpness and he has the desire to score goals and hit a hattrick just a week ago in a warm up match.

    7/1 Serbia 2-0 c/s £1.00
    16/1 Serbia 3-0 c/s £1.00
    60/1 Aleksandar Mitrovic Hattrick £1.00

    +£20.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357146
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20476

    Thought we were going to get the correct score when Serbia went 1 up
    Called the Germany game all wrong. Didn’t see this coming from Mexico, they look very dangerous on the counter attack.

    Going to wait for the line ups for the Brazil game. Bobby Firmino looks interesting for man of the match at 16’s if he’s a starter. Works the forward line relentlessly and capable of scoring in clusters.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357151
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20476

    Firmino not playing…. :cry:

    Switzerland are by no means pushovers, keep the ball well and Brazil’s frontman Neymar has not had a lot of football or at least will be lacking a bit of match practise after a long time out injured. Switzerland are 11/2 for a clean sheet which if that were to happen would open up the possibility of the keeper Yann Sommer getting man of the match at 20’s, we also saw yesterday even without the clean sheet the keeper is able to get the award and also the captain Stephan Lichtsteiner is a big price at 28’s if Switzerland can keep the Brazilians at bay.

    28/1 Stephan Lichtsteiner Man of the match £1.00
    20/1 Yann Sommer man of the match £1.00

    +£18.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357196
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20476

    The European sides have started well this tournament and Belgium should continue the trend
    They tend to well in these types of games where they are strong favourites and have buckets of goals in them
    Sweden done very well against Italy in the play offs and also there group and I think they along with England will just about edge out their opposition and will play them straight in a treble along with Belgium on -1 goal on the handicap

    10/1 Belgium 4-0 c/s £2.00
    20/1 Belgium 5-0 c/s £2.00

    5/4 Sweden +
    4/9 England +
    8/13 Belgium -1 goal

    £2.00 Treble

    +£12.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357233
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20476

    5/4 Sweden +
    4/9 England +
    8/13 Belgium -1 goal

    £2.00 Treble

    That was a late bonus, thought it was going t!ts up especially when Belgium didn’t get the correct score up which looked a formality when they went 3 up with plenty of time left

    treble returned £10.50

    Looking forward to the Poland/Senegal game tomorrow. I think Poland are the more organised side and have the big lad up top. Senegal do look as if they have a goal in them though. Poland win both teams to score is 5’s but I’ll take the correct score of 2-1 at double the odds as a small play.

    10/1 Poland 2-1 c/s £1.00

    +£21.50

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357236
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 25883

    Sterling still freezes in front of goal – no confidence and it’s catching – Lingard and Stones. Hope Sterling is replaced by Rashford. Ali didn’t move with comfort (injured?) and slower than usual; may be give him a match rest and bring in Loftus-Cheek against Panama. Personally I’d replace Young too. But overall got to be pleased with England’s performance.

    However, VAR referees seem to be biased against us though – can’t believe they missed those penalty decisions – disgrace. Fifa are anti-England and so is Russia.

    value is everything
    #1357550
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20476

    A couple longshots for today’s games

    Uruguay were slow into stride against Egypt but Saudi Arabia are no great shakes. Iran won their first match and with Spain only drawing they will be looking to not only win but get the goal difference up I’m sure, especially with Portugal leading at the moment.

    25/1 Spain 5-0 c/s 50p
    22/1 Uruguay 5-0 c/s 50p
    double on the above bet365 top price on both 50p

    +£20.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357757
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20476

    I think France will win without conceding and although Croatia are no mugs I wasn’t expecting to see Argentina odds against, they are a better team then they get credit for although it is true that they don’t always click. Have played the double

    11/8 France to win to nil
    23/20 Argentina

    £2.00 double

    +£18.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357871
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20476

    “There’s none so blind as them what won’t listen.”

    Me after saying Argentina don’t click, yet back them regardless…. :wacko:

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357963
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20476

    I’ve done Costa Rica +2 goals in the handicap a few minutes ago

    4/5 Costa Rica +2 goals £4.00

    +£14.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357964
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20476

    The above bet was done in play at 17 mins
    Costa look organised, played well in the 1st game and are dangerous on the break
    Brazil have had early possession but Neymar is not fit

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
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