The Circus Is Here 1111

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This topic contains 752 replies, has 18 voices, and was last updated by Nathan Hughes Nathan Hughes 2 weeks, 4 days ago.

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  • #1356501
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    1st thread – didn’t keep score but we’ll call it a loss
    2nd thread – +£586.00
    3rd thread – +£160.00

    Think it’s an idea to start a new thread before the World Cup kicks off, gives plenty of time to run up a few Ante Post bets for the season proper starts.

    Everyone is welcome to chuck in their bets/thoughts.
    For those new to the circus I tend to bet small but often and try and pinch a profit along the way. Tend to aim at correct scores, win to nils but nothing is ruled out. May throw in a few Mr Green ups into the equation along the way which has been a way I’ve pinched a few quid from time to time.

    I’ll start with a small bet on the Championship. I think Stoke look short enough. I’d imagine their key players will be setting off to pastures new with the keeper and Shaqiri stood at the exit door waiting for it to be opened. Rowett could bring in some decent replacements but I’ll pass on them at the price. I think Derby have underachieved over the past 3 or 4 years but have still been thereabouts, they have the players but have not quite gone through with it and while it may take time for Lampard to settle into the job the 20’s with bet365 they have tempted me to part with a few shillings. It’s possible he’s able to attract some decent players to the club. I’m having a small bet now and then wait to nearer the time when more of the transfers have gone through and bookies offering more places

    20/1 Derby Championship 1/4 odds 1,2,3 £2.00 Each Way

    -£4.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1356572
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20414

    I was waiting for the highest scoring team market and expected Uruguay to be shorter at around 12’s to 16’s so had to have a quid with Ladbrokes at 28/1. Cavani and Suarez up front and probably the best group to be in with Russia, Egypt and Saudi Arabia should progress and hopeful get a decent amount of goals from the three games.

    28/1 Uruguay Highest scoring team £1.00

    -£5.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1356721
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20414

    I’ll be kicking the World Cup off with a little system
    I’ve checked the odds for either team to score a penalty in a match for the 1st 11 matches and they range from 7/2 to 5/1 with the majority being around the 4/1 mark. VAR can work both ways but the refs if unsure without VAR would normally wave play on, with VAR they are much more likely to take a look and that gives more possibility to a spot kick being awarded. The flip side is them awarding a pen then VAR rules it out but I think more penalty’s will be awarded with the VAR system than the ones the ref gets wrong although this is the World Cup and I’ve seen plenty of shocking refs over the years.

    I’m not sure it’s the best system in the world but will give it a run with stop at a winner or 11 game flop.

    So with the Maths to clear a small profit we’ll call it to clear 7/2 and the points basis as followed.

    1pt = 4.5 = 3.5 profit overall minimum if 7/2
    1pt = 4.5 = 2.5 profit
    1pt = 4.5 = 1.5 profit
    2pt = 9.0 = 4.0 profit
    2pt = 9.0 = 2.0 profit
    3pt = 14.5 = 4.5 profit
    3pt = 14.5 = 1.5 profit
    5pt = 23.5. = 5.5 profit
    6pt = 29 = 5.0 profit
    8pt = 36 = 4.0 profit
    10pt = 47 = 5.0 profit

    My brain Isn’t the brightest but I think the above is correct

    I only bet small so if converting the points into pounds it works out at £42 spread over 11 games which works out at under £4 per game

    you can also bet on penalty in match which is around the 3/1 – 10/3 mark and takes the miss out of the equation but I’ll stick to the either team to score for the added drama…. :wacko: :wacko:

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1356766
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20414

    Can’t think of a much worse match to kick off a world cup
    Not had more than a glance at the market, had Saudi Arabia been 1/1 +2 goals on the handicap I may have had a play but they are 8/13 best price.
    So it’s just the VAR system/Penalty scored for tomorrow

    9/2 Russia v Saudi Arabia – Penalty to be Scored £1.00

    -£6.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1356788

    wasps41
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    • Total Posts 1091

    Derby are a good price Nath.

    Nothing from me at the mo, will be having a look at the weekend

    #1356799
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
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    • Total Posts 2388

    I couldn’t back the bottlers Derby with counterfeit Nath. If they start well like usual though you could trade at Christmas on them for a profit.

    For the World Cup, done Griezmann top scorer at 9/1 and Brazil to win it at 9/2.

    Played under 2.5 goals in the Russia Saudi Arabia game to kick off many Yankees and other multiples.

    Good luck for the season lads

    #1356833
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20414

    Yes, I don’t trust Derby either MOM but they are normally a lot shorter than the 20’s, things can change from season to season and it was more to do with the price than anything else, only a small bet so nothing to worry about, will take a proper look nearer the start of August when the squads are settled and bookies offer that extra place or two.
    similar too when I wasn’t expecting Welbeck to make the England squad when he was 20’s. if Derby were a football player they could very well be Welbeck.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1356851
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20414

    Don’t think the ref in the 1st game understood the meaning of VAR
    Thought I had a half chance of a review in the 1st half
    I’ve got Uruguay down as the team to score a lot of goals, they know how to defend and I think they will take the Egyptians tomorrow.

    13/8 Uruguay -1 goal £3.00
    4/1 Egypt v Uruguay – Penalty to be Scored £1.00

    -£10.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1356897
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20414

    Morocco look the stronger side of the two, not that I know a great deal about either. Recent results suggest Morocco can defend and I’ve played them in the win to nil market along with the pen system

    5/1 Morocco v Iran – penalty to be scored £1.00
    11/5 Morocco to win to nil £2.00

    -£13.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1356907
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20414

    I need to go out now so will just have to assume there is no penalty’s in the Morocco game with around about 10 mins left

    9/2 Portugal v Spain – penalty to be scored £2.00

    -£15.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1356931
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20414

    9/2 Portugal v Spain – penalty to be scored £2.00

    Won returned £11.00

    £6.00 up on the penalty system.
    debating whether or not to carry it on …… :scratch:

    -£4.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1356988
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20414

    The odds in the France match has made my mind up not to play the penalty system as it’s 10/3 on either side scoring a penalty and I’d want 7/2 as a minimum. This VAR hasn’t been used in the way I thought it would. I didn’t watch the game last night but my friend said they didn’t use VAR to check out the penalty. Think they must be using it for the glaringly obvious rather than the trial they had in England where it was being used for everything, double checking each goals etc. Thought Russia could have had a review in the opening game but they didn’t look. The system for penalty’s was going to be one for taking advantage of VAR use so I’m happy to quit whilst I’m ahead… :whistle:

    Was looking at Christian Eriksen for man of the match in the Denmark game but 5/2 looks a very skinny price
    Croatia and Nigeria doesn’t appeal to me.
    I’m looking at the Argentina/Iceland match as I think Argentina don’t always click despite the quality of players they have whilst Iceland look a team full of spirit. Was hoping for 1/1 on +2 on the handicap for Iceland but it’s 4/5.
    I’d imagine Hannes Þór Halldórsson will be between the sticks for Iceland and betway are the standout on him for man of the match at 33’s. Could be a day of backs to the wall and trying to frustrate little Messi, worth a quid.

    33/1 Hannes Þór Halldórsson man of the match £1.00

    -£5.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357058
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20414

    Betbright have gone evens on Argentina -1 goal on the handicap so a late play. Think that looks okay especially if Argentina click. Iceland don’t look to have too many goals in them and it should all be played down the one end

    1/1 Argentina -1 goal £3.00

    -£8.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357070
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20414

    Got to give the chap man of the match for saving a Messi penalty…… B-)

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357080
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20414

    I’d imagine Hannes Þór Halldórsson will be between the sticks for Iceland and betway are the standout on him for man of the match at 33’s. Could be a day of backs to the wall and trying to frustrate little Messi, worth a quid.

    33/1 Hannes Þór Halldórsson man of the match £1.00

    Kabooosh….!!

    Returned £34.00

    +£26.00

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
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